Turning a -EV draw into a +EV lead (micro theory)

[bozlax]

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Since no one has yet, I'd like to at least mention pot size, since it should be a consideration. Here it is small. So by virtue of that alone, I almost always check and fold and look for other opportuities.

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The potsize discussion is implicit, since the setup includes a potsize of 2.5sb. Since you're risking 1 bet to win 2.5, if you have ~30% chance that it'll work it's 0EV. In some live games, against some opponents, and at some stakes you're closer to 60% that it works. In micro online games, you're closer to, uh, 0%.