Is betting the turn correct?

[sean457j]

Low level SNG hand.

Seat 1 - Button ($1490 in chips)
Seat 2 - SB - HERO ($1380 es in my calculations/or think I have misplayed the hand, thenin chips)
Seat 3 - BB - VILLAN ($1495 in chips)
Seat 4 - UTG ($1600 in chips)
Seat 5 - UTG+1 ($1652.50 in chips)
Seat 6 - UTG+2 ($1637.50 in chips)
Seat 7 - CO+2 ($1440 in chips)
Seat 8 - CO+1 ($1540 in chips)
Seat 9 - CO ($1265 in chips)
HERO - Posts small blind $15
VILLAN - Posts big blind $30
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
UTG - Folds
UTG+1 - Folds
UTG+2 - Calls $30
CO+2 - Folds
CO+1 - Folds
CO - Folds
BUTTON - Calls $30
SB - HERO - Raises $65 to $80
BB - Calls $50
UTG+2 - Folds
BUTTON - Folds
*** FLOP *** [Qs 10h 10s]
HERO - Bets $120
VILLAN - Calls $120
*** TURN *** [Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]] [K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]
HERO - Checks
VILLAN - Checks
*** RIVER *** [Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] [2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]
HERO - Checks
VILLAN - Checks

This was quite early so I didn't have a great read on the player, but I was wondering if I was correct in thinking I should have bet around 200 on the turn (I think the pot is 460 at this point). After running various EV calculations I have come up with the following.

In his calling range he is probably going to fold (to a bet of 200) the following hands on the turn.

Most flush draws, Pocket pairs (66, 77, 88, 99, JJ)

I am getting called/rerasied by Qx, Tx, Kx.

I have counted around 100 hands he will fold and around 120 hands he will call/reraise with.

If anyone spots any mistakes please post a response.

[vers]

It's 15/30, why are you raising 55 especially with 2 limpers in the pot. I really don't like this. I guess if you're going to raise, you have to c-bet the flop. When you get flatted, you have to shut down. Read more threads and learn to play tight early instead of spewing chips like this.

[MauMau]

i just complete the bb with 55 - if you dont hit your set just check/fold your hand

[jurrasstoil]

limp pf. check/fold any street if you don't hit your set.
If you get a raise, just fold the 55. No need to go broke or get fancy with low pocket pairs in the low blind levels.

You just lost 200 chips, so it ended up quite good for you. The King is somewhat a scarecard for him if he is just on a weak queen. But since you are oop, you have no info if the king scared him. On higher blinds I would have bet the turn for 1/2-2/3 the pot. But on 15/30, just check/fold.

[Q..]

Wonder what OP does when he has tens.. call preflop, check/fold not set /mega draw flop, can't play it bad with small pps.

[jurrasstoil]

55 is a lot weaker than TT. you rather flop an overpair with 55...

[Rusty Nails]

The avg player in a low limit sng is not folding flush draws/JJ on the turn (and probably not 99). His range should be skewed towards Qx/Tx/str8 draws/flush draws when he calls you on the flop. There is a very small chance you are ahead here and you won't be able to fold out most of teh better hands. Check the turn.

And I think raising pf is pretty bad.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

[ QUOTE ]
55 is a lot weaker than TT. you rather flop an overpair with 55...

[/ QUOTE ]

Your sarcasm detector requires recalibration.

[jurrasstoil]

English is not my native language plus sarcasm without hearing any accentuation is hard to understand on the interwebs [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[malfobi]

Absolutly not, betting the turn is throwing more chips away, as alot of posters have added raising 5s pre flop this early isnt a good idea, you need to set them, you are better off just completing and set mining if you dont flop it, then muck them...