[100nl] Sick river spot with straight on the board...

[Grinding2Ecstasy]

Villain is 24/9/1.6 after 1k hands. Anyone ever call here?


Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (8 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

MP1 ($98.50)
MP2 ($102.55)
CO ($104.60)
Button ($90.20)
SB ($139.65)
BB ($192.85)
UTG ($92.90)
Hero ($114.60)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls $3.50, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls $2.50.

Flop: ($11) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks.

Turn: ($11) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $7</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $20</font>, MP2 folds, BB calls $13.

River: ($51) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $169.35 (All-In)</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $220.35

[SABR42]

Fold. A6 or 76.

[Split Suit]

im folding here

[pattay]

so how little does the villain have to bet here for us to make this call?

[Split Suit]

32?

[effang]

[ QUOTE ]
32?

[/ QUOTE ]

that can't possibly be correct. you are getting 2.5-1 to chop and to only chop. you're paying 32 to win 50+ish. there's no way that is good.

[Split Suit]

i think 32 is roughly the barrier of bluffing. past that is nuts/near nut. i think 32 is the threshold, and hence where im calling up to.

it has nothing to do with math in this case. more just experience with ppl like this, in spots like this...

[Grinding2Ecstasy]

good question pattay, I think around 30 or less I would have hated it but paid to see, 40+ I am a little too sick, even though I had trouble putting him on a 6. He certainly wasn't worried that I had one.
67d is a pretty reasonable hand for him to have, good suggestion sabre.