The River Bluff-raise

[Strasse]

What do you think about this play? TOP says its a must for expert players. I try it occasionally when I think it has a chance to work, but haven't actually gotten it to work until tonight. The problem I see with it is that the only players that are donkey enough to bet their **** hands OTR w/o knowing whether its a bluff or a value bet are too donkey to fold when you try the play.

7 Card Stud High ($3/$6), Ante $0.50, Bring-In $1 (converter)

3rd Street - (1.17 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 3: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___completes___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 6: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (1.17 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 3: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

5th Street - (0.58 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 3: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (0.58 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls

River - (0.58 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] xx___bets___folds
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises

Total pot: (-0.42 BB - $-2.50)

Results (in white):<font color="white">

Total pot $67.50 | Rake $3

Note: this site shuffles the hole cards.

</font>


I tried it again later in the session, using it on a guy I put on a flush draw, and also showing a pair of 9s. I tried it after I myself missed my own flush draw, and he ended up "thinking" for a while and called with just his 9s. As you can see, he definately didn't know what his own bet on the river was for, and was then too donkey to fold after I told him I could beat his hand.

[RustyBrooks]

I have *almost never* seen someone fold to a river raise. I have bluff-raised the river and been called by someone who was bluffing all day long and trust me, they did not think they were value betting J high (razz).

Edit: I play 1/2 and .5/1...

[Strasse]

I have seen plenty of people fold to a raise on the river, but its probably usually when they were bluffing themselves. Either that, or its painfully obvious that their opponent hit their draw.

[electrical]

[ QUOTE ]
I try it occasionally when I think it has a chance to work, but haven't actually gotten it to work until tonight.

[/ QUOTE ]
This play works when it does because of the dynamic of your relationship with villain, corroborated by the cards in view. It requires opponents who:

A) Are experienced enough at poker that they make deep reads and occasionally rely on them to make thin laydowns.
B) Have been playing with you enough to have a solid read on you -- solid enough to satisfy the condition above.
C) Have reason to think you are a solid enough player that your value raises are almost always correct.
D) Has no reason to think you are tilting.
E) Has never seen you bluff raise. They remember plays like this like it was their wedding day.

A number of comments:

Fifth street call is real bad. You are beaten in sight and have no re-draw to a pat hand. This is your bus stop, watch your step, don't forget your bag.

Your board and prior street action don't suggest either a monster or a solid draw (that's partly because you had no draw, as mentioned earlier). Before you make a play like this, ask yourself what hand you're representing with the raise (I don't know... Kings up? Some weird fluke trips or little straight?), and is that hand actually strong enough to make the raise against villain's board (in this case, a paired door card, potential straight and flush). Both answers are unconvincing to me.

A river bluff raise is generally more effective if you have played the hand fast enough to give your raise the appearance of value. Here it looks weird and random, and weird plays induce calls. That it worked this time is reason to make a note on that villain making awful river folds, not reason to try the bluff again.

The only benefit to torching your money this way is that you'll get a lot of action from anybody that saw the hand go down for the rest of the night.

[Strasse]

Thanks for the list, very informative. Yeah, I know I played the hand kinda bad. I was a little tilting at the time. I also had a strong read that he was on the flush draw w/ a pair, and w/ some flush cards dead, felt it was worth continuing(as I was partly tilted) w/ a live pair and two overcards. Him betting his stupid hand tilted me enough to make the raise OTR, since I knew he was betting nothing. I figured I could get him to lay down if he didn't hit his flush, since I had represented a strong hand on 3rd. A high pair, possibly trips. I figured my raise OTR would represent atleast kings up, and would work often enough to give it a shot.

[TheEye]

At higher levels I believe it could be more succesful than 3/6. I am with the impression and have seen it a lot that even people who bet 1p for value on 7th will call a raise with that 1p as the pot gives them good enough odds to do so if every street was bet. It would mostly work if they are on bluffs ofcourse, but are there many who bluff more than 40% of their hands at 3/6?!I doubt.

[Noir_Desir]

I have played 3/6 on FTP and have hardly ever seen anybody bet 1 pair on the river. A bet is either a big two pair or complete air most of the time in my experience.

And its obviously no donk move to valuebet one pair (if its not exposed of course) because you lose tons of value otherwise and are going to have trouble getting your two pairs paid off.

[JoeDimaggio]

I like your thinking but at 3/6 it works about 0 times out of 100

Once a player at 3/6 gets to the river theyre going to pay it off if they have any type of decent hand and aren't staring at a hugely threatening board.