2 interesting $400 PLO8 hands

[gergery]

Those are both tough spots. OldLion can definitely be bluffing in the first hand but more likely its a semi-bluff. I don't think you are much ahead of his range tho.

second hand its less likely he's bluffing. problem is that vs two guys you can be even moneyish for main pot w and behind in the sidepot.

[garcia1000]

1) Fist pump all-in
2) Looks sick to me. I think it's pretty close but I would fold here. A2xx and a set is out there too often.

[howzit]

[ QUOTE ]

second hand its less likely he's bluffing. problem is that vs two guys you can be even moneyish for main pot w and behind in the sidepot.

[/ QUOTE ]

this point was in my subconcious but i think it's the other way around.

IMO, it's more likely Dave chops the side pot on a low card.

[TheStation]

[ QUOTE ]
*Edit - Station please do not provide results or chat from this hand right now.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldnt think of doing that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I will never post anything to ruin any hand discussion

Im actually not even curious enough yet to cheat and just look for myself as i want to think about this more

[garcia1000]

These are interesting hands with diverse opinions on both hands.

I would definitely be interested in hearing analysis of why you thought which one of either one was the right one and how close EV-wise the decision is of calling or folding for either the first or the second hand in terms of EV and your explanation for why you thought that and why you think whether the decision is an easy one or not.

[booger]

Hand 1: You play it utg, then call the raise pf, what are you wanting to hit with this turd of a hand?? If you're going to play it then jam and pray.
Hand 2: Jam the utg pot bet on the flop, raise and reraise.

[PorkPieHat]

Ok, hand one is probably a push at this point because if you are going to play [censored] like that then you deserve what you get when you flop a 'monster'. Dave does not want preflop discussion here, but he probably deserves preflop berating, lol.

At first glance I thought hand 2 is an easy fold, and 2 dimes backs me up. Here's the possible worst case:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=3973247
pokenum -o8 ac 9c 4h 5h - kc kd qs jh - ah 2h 5c 6s -- 8c ks 3s
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 666 enumerated boards containing Ks 3s 8c
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ac 9c 5h 4h 28 52 614 0 96 371 9 0.117
Qs Kc Kd Jh 187 563 103 0 0 0 0 0.563
6s 5c Ah 2h 43 51 615 0 371 96 9 0.320

Here's something better:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=3973248
pokenum -o8 ac 9c 4h 5h - kc kd qs jh - ah 4d 3c 8s -- 8c ks 3s
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 666 enumerated boards containing Ks 3s 8c
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ac 9c 5h 4h 24 73 582 11 126 0 387 0.301
Qs Kc Kd Jh 148 579 87 0 0 0 0 0.546
8s 3c 4d Ah 2 3 652 11 0 48 387 0.153

And here's the likely best you can hope for based on the betting:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=3973250
pokenum -o8 ac 9c 4h 5h - kc kd qs jh - ah 3d 3c 8s -- 8c ks 3s
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 666 enumerated boards containing Ks 3s 8c
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ac 9c 5h 4h 87 88 578 0 521 0 9 0.463
Qs Kc Kd Jh 117 541 125 0 0 0 0 0.494
8s 3c 3d Ah 16 37 629 0 0 120 9 0.043

I'm not sure how often you can expect to see something like set over set with no reasonable low draws with this action. Even if you put BB on just a random A2 hand cuz he's short, what do you expect UTG to have that you beat? 2 pair? Ok, let's give him that:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=3973261
pokenum -o8 ac 9c 4h 5h - kc 8d qs jh - ah 2d 3c 8s -- 8c ks 3s
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 666 enumerated boards containing Ks 3s 8c
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ac 9c 5h 4h 52 91 575 0 158 355 0 0.191
Qs Kc 8d Jh 120 456 210 0 0 0 0 0.432
8s 3c 2d Ah 75 119 547 0 355 58 0 0.376

Now you could pull the shorty out of the equation when discussing the side pot with UTG, and if you think he sucks that hard then you're ok vs 2 pair w/no low obviously:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=3973274
pokenum -o8 ac 9c 4h 5h - kc 8d qs jh -- 8c ks 3s
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing Ks 3s 8c
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ac 9c 5h 4h 151 151 669 0 630 0 0 0.484
Qs Kc 8d Jh 178 669 151 0 0 0 0 0.516

Of course, OK means that you aren't a huge dog, just a tiny one. Either way, fold imo.

[howzit]

pork pie hat, the suits in the twodimes sim are wrong.

dave has spades buddy.

[PorkPieHat]

[ QUOTE ]
pork pie hat, the suits in the twodimes sim are wrong.

dave has spades buddy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Crap, I suck at copy/paste. Gimme a few mins to re-edit.

[PorkPieHat]

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=3973643
pokenum -o8 as 9s 4h 5h - kc kd qs jh - ah 2h 5c 6s -- 8c ks 3s
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 666 enumerated boards containing Ks 3s 8c
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
As 9s 5h 4h 62 167 499 0 96 371 9 0.214
Qs Kc Kd Jh 172 468 198 0 0 0 0 0.480
6s 5c Ah 2h 27 31 635 0 371 96 9 0.305

Ok, minor difference here, still sucks IMO.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=3973645
pokenum -o8 as 9s 4h 5h - kc kd qs jh - ah 4d 3c 8s -- 8c ks 3s
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 666 enumerated boards containing Ks 3s 8c
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
As 9s 5h 4h 69 206 454 6 126 0 387 0.410
Qs Kc Kd Jh 133 451 215 0 0 0 0 0.438
8s 3c 4d Ah 2 3 657 6 0 48 387 0.151

Little better here but still sucky.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=3973648
pokenum -o8 as 9s 4h 5h - kc kd qs jh - ah 3d 3c 8s -- 8c ks 3s
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 666 enumerated boards containing Ks 3s 8c
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
As 9s 5h 4h 216 221 445 0 521 0 9 0.574
Qs Kc Kd Jh 102 408 258 0 0 0 0 0.383
8s 3c 3d Ah 16 37 629 0 0 120 9 0.043

Now we go from 50/50 to 60/40. Still pretty much the best you're gonna see imo.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=3973649
pokenum -o8 as 9s 4h 5h - kc 8d qs jh - ah 2d 3c 8s -- 8c ks 3s
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 666 enumerated boards containing Ks 3s 8c
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
As 9s 5h 4h 97 230 436 0 158 355 0 0.309
Qs Kc 8d Jh 102 331 335 0 0 0 0 0.325
8s 3c 2d Ah 67 105 561 0 355 58 0 0.366

OK, if 2 pr was Dave's read then he is still a dog with no fold equity.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=3973655
pokenum -o8 as 9s 4h 5h - kc 8d qs jh -- 8c ks 3s
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing Ks 3s 8c
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
As 9s 5h 4h 309 309 511 0 630 0 0 0.593
Qs Kc 8d Jh 157 511 309 0 0 0 0 0.407

Again, 60/40 at best.

I don't see this ('this' being the correction of my earlier moronity) changing my opinion on call/fold. The interesting thing is how the spade draw only adds 10% equity to the first couple of sims. To be a fav in this spot vs anyone reasonable you need to have the only live low draw, which I don't see happening often enough to be profitable.