river bluff vs. 2p2er

[tannenj]

villain posts a bunch in ssnl and msnl and plays 1/2 and 2/4. he is superaggressive. running like 22/18.5/6 over 1600 hands in my database. cbets the turn over 40% of the time. w$wsf is 54 (!) over this sample.

i respect his play but he seems to be obsessed with bluffing, especially against me.

we have some history. my position at the time was that he tries to bluff me a ton, and i end up trying to trap him/trying to pick off his bluffs. he probably has me at something like 23/19/3 fwiw.

here's the one largish pot we'd played prior to the hand in question:

Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: $206.80
Hero (BTN): $642.40
SB: $527.30
BB: $1,004
UTG: $200.20
MP: $524.60

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $14</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $50</font>, BB folds, Hero calls $36

Flop: ($104) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $76</font>, Hero calls $76

Turn: ($256) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $136</font>, Hero calls $136

River: ($528) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Results: $528 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a pair of Aces) and WON $525 (+$263 NET)
SB showed K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a pair of Queens) and LOST (-$262 NET)

i'll provide my input for the hand in question in the op this time rather than saving it for after responses.

on the flop, i think my hand is very often good. my read is that the villain (button) will bet the flop a lot with air. once he bets the river, though, i put him on a queen or something like 99, 88.

i felt my play repped 55 and 22 pretty well. fwiw, i would play those hands exactly this way very often against him, and i suspect that he knows that. in addition, he has not caught me trying to bluff him in the past before.

co is running at like 29/13.5/1 over 75 hands.

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $200
Hero (BB): $206.25
UTG: $222.90
CO: $178.90
BTN: $263.55

Pre-Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $6</font>, BTN calls $6, SB folds, Hero calls $4

Flop: ($19) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, CO checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $16.80</font>, Hero calls $16.80, CO folds

Turn: ($52.60) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($52.60) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $36</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $112</font>

[nazahl]

seeing how aggro he is, I'd expect him to bet a Queen on the turn as well most times.

if he folded here you probably had the best hand, I think I'd just call the river.

[Unknown Soldier]

don't like it you're repping only sets, but sets that played tricky so that doesn't make it too good, calling is prob fine

[Kimpan]

I just call river. Not much value in a raise.

[Paul Thomson]

i guess it's fine. calling is also fine...i'm trying to think about what better hands could have gotten there on the river.

if he thinks, you'll play a set like this then it's all good. if he thinks your line is suspect and will look u up wiht a Q, then i think ti's bad.

[PUBgrub]

im not sure i understand your play on the river. are you raising thinking you have the best hand, or are you trying to push him off a weak Q?

seems kinda like you raised for the sake of raising...

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
im not sure i understand your play on the river. are you raising thinking you have the best hand, or are you trying to push him off a weak Q?

seems kinda like you raised for the sake of raising...

[/ QUOTE ]

both. we have the best hand alot. but if we don't then given his check on the turn, we'll probably fold him off of a queen.

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
seeing how aggro he is, I'd expect him to bet a Queen on the turn as well most times.

if he folded here you probably had the best hand, I think I'd just call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

good point about the queen.

[Noam Chomsky]

seems like you can call VERY profitably here.

[tannenj]

i thought this was clear, but the river bet is a pure bluff. he is never calling with worse.

i felt that the vast majority of his range was one-pair hands. some of them beat me, some of them don't. my thinking was that if i called, i'd beat stuff like 99 but get towned by stuff like QJ. however, if i raised, he'd fold his queens, and he'd also fold his 99-type hands, which is obviously not a bad thing (and it'd decrease my green line/blue line gap! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]).

edit: i'm not disputing that calling might've been profitable. if it was, though, that doesn't mean that raising wasn't better.