50NL: Is a semi-bluff spew here?

[RapidEvolution]

I have MP3 at 9/6/0 over 45 hands (not much)
BTN is 28/18/3 over same sample


$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG (<font color="#0000cc">$60.40</font>)
UTG+1 (<font color="#0000cc">$42.10</font>)
MP1 (<font color="#0000cc">$49.40</font>)
MP2 (<font color="#0000cc">$44.00</font>)
MP3 (<font color="#0000cc">$56.95</font>)
Hero (<font color="#0000cc">$50.00</font>)
BTN (<font color="#0000cc">$56.25</font>)
SB (<font color="#0000cc">$84.35</font>)
BB (<font color="#0000cc">$49.25</font>)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 9 players) Hero is CO Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#777777">4 folds</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP3 raises to $1.75</font>, Hero calls $1.75, <font color="#cc0000">BTN raises to $3</font>, <font color="#777777">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls $1.25, Hero calls $1.25

With position on the initial raiser, I elect to flat with QJs. After the minraise by the button and MP3's call, I'm looking at huge odds to call here, so I do. Also, if button moves first on flop, I can see what MP3 does before doing anything.

With the raise and call, I think BTN's minraise is either in the range of QQ+/AK or some random weird hand.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($9.75, 3 players)
MP3 checks, Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">BTN bets $9.75</font>, <font color="#777777">MP3 folds</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero goes all-in $47

I pushed here to maximize FE against and AQ/AK type hand, fold out the higher pairs, and get it in, in case he minraised with some weird sc hand. If he's here with AA, I still have outs to draw out to. Is my reasoning okay here?

[Johnes Benjamin]

I don't think you have much FE vs an A, as your hand looks pretty drawy, but sc's are also a big part of his range. If there is a chance he will call with 67s then it would be pretty good.

I am usually wary of a minraise but whatevs, it is fine I guess

[SABR42]

LOL at having FE over AK/AQ.

You probably get KK to fold though.

[sakrei]

so is this line ok?

[wikemang]

This is definitely spew. I don't see how you have fold equity here against an ace.

[RapidEvolution]

Okay assuming that villain is willing to stack off with only TP here, does the chance to fold out other high pairs not create the equity we need to make this +EV?

[toymach776]

You definitely dont have fold equity here. I also dont think that your draw is strong enough. Its a non nut flush draw with no gutshot or overs. Insufficent fold equity or pot equity makes this spew IMO.

[ClubChamp04]

I don't like the play and agree with everyone in that you have no fold equity vs AK-AQ. I would prob CC one street here with the expectation of extracting value from someone who doesn't want to fold if we hit our hand.

[twilitekid]

with so many people over valuing their hands @ 50, i'm beginning to wonder if semi-bluffing all in isn't always spewing.

[Chargers In 07]

[ QUOTE ]
with so many people over valuing their hands @ 50, i'm beginning to wonder if semi-bluffing all in isn't always spewing.

[/ QUOTE ]Depends on how many outs you have and their range.