2/4 B&M - flopped set pedal to the metal

[gobbledygeek]

2/4 B&M, 10 players, loose and a bit more aggresive than usual (much bigger pots on average today)

SB (Villain) is total unknown. I just sat down and have only played an orbit; in that time he's only called preflop a couple of times and never made it to the turn.

Preflop(10 players): Hero is UTG+1 with 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks

Flop (7 players, 7 BB): 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, Button calls, SB checkraises, BB folds, UTG folds, Hero 3bets, MP1 coldcalls, Button folds, SB calls

Turn (3 players, 8.5 BB) 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB bets, Hero raises, MP1 coldcalls, SB 3bets, Hero caps, MP1 coldcalls

River (3 players, 20.5 BB) 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
SB bets, Hero calls...

With MP1 trapped in the hand (and I'm guessing on a flush draw), I have to cap the turn, right?

Do I need to put in another bet on the river? Or is calling in this situation ok (perhaps getting one more bet from MP1 if not on a flush draw)?

Bonus question: What did SB have?

GcluelessnoobG

[BubbleMint]

Capping the turn seems good to me, you cant be fearing 4,5 and we have to charge all draws the max.

I call river because a flopped 2 pair just potentially over took us. Also with MP1 cold calling all the way, he could be 'slowplaying' his top set or have an over pair he cant get away from, many villains couldnt lay down 88+ here.

Reasonably I put SB on 7,3 or 7,2.
Although for comedy value he could be going wild with AK.

[Yepitis]

In this situation I would raise river in hopes MB1 has a hand he couldn't lay down and SB raises. With only one to over call it is tough call. SB has 45 or clubs.

[jesse8888]

I call the river because I think you are behind a lot here. If I had to take a shot in the dark, I'd say the SB has 7s full and you are toasty.

[fishyak]

Two principles I use in live play:

1) Sets are stealth bombs. Your opposition has UNDERVALUED your hand. And their betting pattern is based on what they think you have.
2) Particularly live, people tend to overvalue the hands of their opponents. Think about the range of their possible hands, each hand equally likely as the other. A few of those hands will beat you. Most will not.

SB played his first orbit tightly. No evidence of LAG play.

Also look closely at SB's action. He c/r'ed the flop, which can be a sign of a draw or hand protection. He did NOT cap the flop. He was willing to cap the turn. Best interpretation, he improved on the turn. Most likely improvement - 45. It could even be 45 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]'s.

He tends to confirm the 45 with his bet out on the river. The question at this point is: Is your raise EV+ and I believe it has to be. You could get a follower and will get at least one extra bet. I believe you have better than a 50/50 chance to win the hand. Could you lose to a monster? Most certainly. Some hands are what I call "destined to die." You have really good cards and they have great cards. That is relatively rare. Your really good cards should win this more than 1/2 the time, raise the river.

[gobbledygeek]

I'll admit, I didn't put SB on 45 although I think that hand makes a lot of sense and with that I should have raised the river. I was leaning more towards 77, 22, 72 or 73.

P.S.: Any more guesses as to SB's hand?

[threeducks]

The river bet is a bit scary since 45 would check and call I think. If he put you on 2 pair or a set you now most likely have a FH if not your are not calling with less. I think he most likely has FH, 7's full.

Riddle: What hand does the SB check raise the flop with, 3-bet the turn and lead the river with?

Check raise flop with 45? Maybe but not likely.
Check raise flop with 66, 88-JJ, maybe but then 3-bet the turn? no

Back to full house, hopefully 22.

[MikeTheGeek]

If I were in the game, I'd be raising. But here away from the table with plenty of time to review all the action, it's quite possible you are beat. Not necessarily probable, but possible. If I were at the table I would put them on 45 of clubs and raise, raise, raise.

With 20/20 hindsight I'm thinking 2-7 or 3-7 so just call, praying A-7. The flop bet screams top 2 or at least one 7. The question is did they hit trips or the superior boat?

Wait, SB called and did not cap on the flop. A-7 or 4-5. Raise. 7-6 possible the 6 could have two-paired him. I like to raise with most 2-hole-card boats in limit poker, flame away if you want, but they win often. There's just so few hands that beat you and his action only fits one or two of them.

Going for an overcall is an idea but if you are confident enough to be saying "I want that one extra caller's dead money" you should want the extra action from SB even more. If you had more players behind you, calling for overcalls might be better.

[gobbledygeek]

[ QUOTE ]

Check raise flop with 66, 88-JJ, maybe but then 3-bet the turn? no

[/ QUOTE ]

You were the closest at guessing; Villain had 66. His flop checkraise is probably debatable but other than that he played it pretty straightforward and yet I was blindsided when he flipped his cards over; I'm glad I wasn't the only one not to put him on this hand.

GhavingtroublereadinghisownhandletaloneopponentsG

[One Outer]

grunch

If this were me and I got threebet on the turn I would just call it, but only because my game has a five bet cap. I like your cap against a flush draw.

I do think were drawing here against a straight the vast majority of the time. Top two or a set isn't going to three bang the obvious turn straight card. I think your line is so strong even the dumbest player would rarely three bet the turn like that without a straight.

Raise/call the river. I think I would need a shower if I just called there.