UFC Ultimate Fight Night

[SunOfBeach]

Lines just went up on Pinny (for the undercard only) - Jason von Flue +185 versus Luke Cummo is WAY off... (that fight has got to be around even..., maybe Luke minus 110-120 or so...).

Ironically, I took it for the max (only 500 this early), and now the lines are off the board again (I think they were up for only about 10-15 minutes)... I have NO idea what is going on.

Others were:

Leben - 575ish
Imes -200ish
Koscheck -275ish
Burkman -225ish

[Performify]

thanks for posting - i've been watching carefully for these to hit. They're back:

Luke Cummo vs Jason von Flue
131 Luke Cummo -188
132 Jason von Flue +173

Brad Imes vs Dan Christianson
133 Brad Imes -207
134 Dan Christianson +187

Chris Leben vs Luigi Fioravanti
135 Chris Leben -575
136 Luigi Fioravanti +525

Josh Koscheck vs Ansar Chalangov
137 Josh Koscheck -320
138 Ansar Chalangov +290

Trevor Prangley vs Chael Sonnen
141 Trevor Prangley -300
142 Chael Sonnen +270

Stephan Bonnar vs Keith Jardine
143 Stephan Bonnar -331
144 Keith Jardine +301

Joe Stevenson vs Josh Neer
145 Joe Stevenson -468
146 Josh Neer +418

Rashad Evans vs Sam Hoger
147 Rashad Evans -220
148 Sam Hoger +200

[swope]

Im liking Christianson. I may put minor bets on Hoger, Luigi, & Chalangov (whom is a profoundly underrated talent despite his ass whipping at the hands of Alves at his first UFC showing).

My concern with Cummo is that he basically stopped training for a while so he could concentrate on school.. its safe to say that JVF has been doing nothing but training since the last UFN.. so I may sit out that one.

[mockturtle]

i took ansar and luigi. eager to see your picks, performify (and why didnt you bet on pride!?)

[Performify]

I'm crazy busy at work last couple weeks for a major product launch that hits next wednesday. Not a lot of time for a lot of things, including properly handicapping the last Pride FC (and including poker, sadly).

I hopefully will have time to handicap these tonight.

First thoughts are that Cummo and Ives are being overrated, although i don't know if I'll be able to bet against Luke here even tho the line is +EV because of his time away and his obvious good determination. I guess just repeating what Swope already said here.

I also think Rashad is being overvalued here at -220.

[mockturtle]

worth nothing about imes is he was training like, less than a year on TUF. another six months of training is 150% the training time. six months to him means a lot more than six months on someone whose trained a while longer.

[SunOfBeach]

You're the second guy here to say that you're AVOIDING the cummo fight b/c he's been taking time off... isn't that a reason to bet against him?

[Performify]

yeah it is - i say i'm likely to stay away because its an uncertainty factor

[slickpoppa]

[ QUOTE ]

Luke Cummo vs Jason von Flue
131 Luke Cummo -188
132 Jason von Flue +173

Brad Imes vs Dan Christianson
133 Brad Imes -207
134 Dan Christianson +187

Chris Leben vs Luigi Fioravanti
135 Chris Leben -575
136 Luigi Fioravanti +525

Josh Koscheck vs Ansar Chalangov
137 Josh Koscheck -320
138 Ansar Chalangov +290

Trevor Prangley vs Chael Sonnen
141 Trevor Prangley -300
142 Chael Sonnen +270

Stephan Bonnar vs Keith Jardine
143 Stephan Bonnar -331
144 Keith Jardine +301

Joe Stevenson vs Josh Neer
145 Joe Stevenson -468
146 Josh Neer +418

Rashad Evans vs Sam Hoger
147 Rashad Evans -220
148 Sam Hoger +200

[/ QUOTE ]

Here are my picks and brief explanations:

Von Flue
- JVF is more experienced, has a good chin, and pretty good submissions. Luke was impessive in his loss against Stevenson, but not impressive enough for me to think he is that much of a favorite. Also, has someone else mentioned, Cummo's long time off without a fight makes me wary.

Christison
- I think Imes is being highly overrated here because he made it to TUF finals and Christison choked on the show. Imes is still very inexperienced and it showed in his performance against a much smaller Rashad. Granted he has been supposedly training a lot since then, but I don't like him as a favorite.

Leben
- I like Leben in this fight not because I think Fioravanti is trash, but because I think Leben is that good. Fioravanti allegedly has good knockout power, but Leben is known for having an iron chin. Leben has the KO power and an underrated ground game. I think he is a near lock against a second tier opponent like Fioravanti

Chalangov
- Koscheck is a no-talent lay and pray artist. I don't know much about Chalangov, but I think I know enough to say that he is not more than a 3:1 dog. Chalangov does have a win over Dennis Hallman, who beat Matt Hughes twice. There is a good chance that Koscheck wins this one with three rounds of taking Chalangov down and dry humping him, but not greater than 75%.

Prangley v. Sonnen
- Don't know much about these guys. No comment.

Bonnar
- I think this one is very close. Jardine has an impressive record and KO power, but I think Bonnar is a great all around fighter and very intelligent. I see Bonnar taking this fight to the ground much like he did with James Irvin and submitting Jardine.

Stevenson
- Joe is an absolute beast and is very experienced for his age (He's 24-6 and had his first pro fight at age 16!). Neer was getting his ass kicked by Melvin Guillard before he caught Melvin in a sub. Stevenson by submission.

Hoger
- This one is also very close, but I think Rashad is overrated because he won TUF. Hoger has some very good submissions and Rashad's ground game has never really been tested.

[ImBen]

[ QUOTE ]

Ironically, I took it for the max (only 500 this early), and now the lines are off the board again (I think they were up for only about 10-15 minutes)... I have NO idea what is going on.


[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't irony.