2/4 PLO...Flopped split 2, turned K-flush, river pairs board.....

[jas759]

PokerStars Game #10200563579: Omaha Pot Limit ($2/$4) - 2007/05/31 - 14:59:19 (ET)
Table 'Misam IV' 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: Gakn29 ($396 in chips)
Seat 2: Big D ($97.10 in chips)
Seat 4: bp02 ($319.50 in chips)
Seat 5: jas759 ($618.15 in chips)
Seat 6: kondos 1 ($137.40 in chips)
Gakn29: posts small blind $2
Big D: posts big blind $4
pandaeye168: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jas759 [Kh 8h 6s 9c]
bp02: folds
jas759: raises $10 to $14
kondos 1: calls $14
Gakn29: calls $12
Big D: folds
*** FLOP *** [Ks 4h 6h]
Gakn29: checks
jas759: bets $44
kondos 1: folds
Gakn29: calls $44
*** TURN *** [Ks 4h 6h] [Jh]
Gakn29: checks
jas759: bets $132
Gakn29: calls $132
*** RIVER *** [Ks 4h 6h Jh] [Jd]
Gakn29: bets $206 and is all-in
jas759 said, "worst card"
jas759: folds
Gakn29 collected $396 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $398 | Rake $2
Board [Ks 4h 6h Jh Jd]
Seat 1: Gakn29 (small blind) collected ($396)
Seat 2: Big D (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: bp02 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: jas759 folded on the River
Seat 6: kondos 1 (button) folded on the Flop



I flopped split 2 with the K high redraw. Pretty solid hand. I was hoping to get repopped on the flop as I was ready to commit myself then and there. The turn was a good card, I'm not terribly afraid of the A high flush, especially when he check calls. The river is of course, as I noted in the room, a horrific card. Villain insta-shoves.

So I go into the very shallow tank that Stars permits. I immediately discount hands including KK and 66 to some extent since he has only one way to make each of those hands (as I have both a K and a 6). 44xx is a possible holding of course. Something like KJxx would be feasible I suppose, but those "x"s would have to warrant it (something like KJAA or KJ4x).

As I said, I discounted the nut flush because of the way the turn played out. He can't be certain that I'm going to bet the turn when the heart peels off. And if he thinks that I'm committed to the hand (with either a set or 2 pair [which is a fairly easy fold when a flush draw completes]), then why not put the extra $206 in on the turn? His insta-shove on the river also suggests to me that he doesn't have a flush as I would easily call with a boat and fold if I was clowning.

The last type of hand I can consider is something that involved the J high flush draw when he flopped a pair. The more I think about it, the more likely it is. This would be the most likely had that I could call bs on and thus pay off his river bet. It's also the most frustrating hand to lose to...but a second best hand is still a second best hand, regardless of how it falls behind.

Thus, my conclusion is that he has some obscure full-house, most likely Js full (maybe 4s full of Js) and I begrudgingly fold. After the hand, I start to think about things in terms of NLHE. A $206 bet into a $396 pot...that means I have to be "right" with the call about 26% of the time (just less than 3:1) to break even. However, in my experience with PLO, this is much higher than the actual bluffing frequency of even the most audacious opponents. I specifically had to give him credit for some sort of legitimate hand since this was the second hand he'd seen at the table.

This is my first post on 2+2 even though I've read the threads off and on for 2 years or so. Impress me people! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Thanks in advance for all of the advice.

Joe