KQs against a 3-bet

[BigBadBabar]

cold cash, lol?

[BigBadBabar]

and of course people 3bet jj and tt pf. my 3b range is much wider than that.

[marchron]

[ QUOTE ]
So nobody's 3-betting w/ Tens or Jacks anymore?

Why do we even call to take the flop then?

[/ QUOTE ]
Because we're getting 6 to 1 to see three cards. That's a lot different than getting 8 to 1 to see one card.

JJ and TT (and 99) are our best-case scenarios, and we're still well behind to them. AJ, possible but unlikely, has us beat by a thinner margin as well. QQ, AK, and AQ leave us with three outs and we need a doctor if Villain has KK or AA.

A further problem is RIO, since hitting our out may only cost us more money. If we hit a K and check/raise the turn, are we insta-folding to a three-bet?

If we even had a gutshot, it's worth a call. But we have the worst hand and no draw.

[Befolder]

[ QUOTE ]
I raise K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] from UTG+2. Someone new who has just played a few hands 3-bets me.

Flop comes:

2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

I check, he bets, and I ??

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold. Most of his range has you dominated so you're really only hoping for a spade on the turn, and that's only to improve to a draw.

[Guitierez]

We also have a nut BDSD. So counting the OC as 4 outs and 3 for both backdoor draws, getting 8.5:1 is an easy call for me. So much more, as we can safely fold the turn if we can't spike a spade, J or T.

[JJack]

[ QUOTE ]
We also have a nut BDSD. So counting the OC as 4 outs and 3 for both backdoor draws, getting 8.5:1 is an easy call for me. So much more, as we can safely fold the turn if we can't spike a spade, J or T.

[/ QUOTE ]

*grunch*
BDSD with one gap is 1 out (0 gap, 1.5 out)
OC can be dominated hmm 3 outs?

[marchron]

[ QUOTE ]
We also have a nut BDSD. So counting the OC as 4 outs and 3 for both backdoor draws, getting 8.5:1 is an easy call for me. So much more, as we can safely fold the turn if we can't spike a spade, J or T.

[/ QUOTE ]
Counting the overcards for four outs is still a little generous, because against most of Villain's range we'll have 3. And the backdoor straight draw is a two-gapper, worth half an out, not one and a half outs. So I make five outs getting 8½-1, which is a much thinner call.

[00Snitch]

Let me see if I can get some maths right for a change... (feel free to jump in you maths geeks that actually know what you are doing...)

I'm giving villan TT+;AK+ and half the AJ and AQ hands. Possibly a bit generous, but we'll see how it looks.

You just can't count your bdsd for anything. It is worth less than half an out. A two-gap bdsd will come in about 1.5% of the time. A one out hand, comes in about 4% of the time. So a two-gapper is worth less than half an out. So lets just forget about that.

You'r back-door flush draw however, will come in about 4% of the time, so that is worth around 1 out. So we will count that.


AK(12) - 4 outs
AQ(6) - 4 outs
AJ(8) - 7 outs
TT(6) - 7 outs
JJ(6) - 7
QQ(3) - 0.5 (discount for the board pairing if we make our 1 out bdfd.
KK(3) - 1

Total Hands - 44

Average outs:

= (12/44)4 + (6/44)4 + (8/44)*7 + (6/44)*7 + (6/44)*7 + (3/44)*0.5 + (3/44)*1

= 48/44 + 24/44 + 56/44 + 42/44 + 42/44 + 1.5/44 + 3/44

= 216.5/44

Average outs = 4.9

Odds needed to call: 47/4.9 - 1 = 8.5

We are getting 7.5:1 and need 8.5:1, so it's probably a fold.

I am willing to be proven wrong. There is probably a 50% chance my maths sux.

[marchron]

I think counting AJ at all is thin for an unknown player who's facing an EP raise from someone HE considers unknown (Hero). On the other hand, I'd include all AQ hands, as that's a pretty standard 3-betting hand. At the very least, include all AQs hands (three left) and anywhere between one-half to three-quarters of AQo hands (nine left, so count, say, six).

Also, according to SSHE, we overvalue backdoor draws more than the math would suggest because we'll usually collect mega implied odds on river bets, since nobody will put us on a backdoor hand. Of course, by that token, if you want to be Nitty McNitterson, you shouldn't then factor in implied odds with those, since they're already priced in. You wouldn't want to double-count your implieds.

[EGO]

[ QUOTE ]
For those advocating a fold:

If he is 3-betting AKs,AKo,TT+ we have 18% equity while we get 8:1 pot odds on the flop. Is folding really the right play?

Adding AQs to his range doesn't really change our equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, because if we hit, then we will often lose more than we will win because so much of his range dominates us. The only hands that we win against when we spike top pair are TT-JJ, QQ if we catch a 3-outer. The rest have us dominated. Hot/cold simulations, while helpful don't take into account possible action on future streets.

I check/fold this flop.

Edit:

00Snitch - Nice weighted odds. I didn't check the math, since we came to the same conclusion. I recommend that everybody who hasn't done this the long way about 20 or so times get out their copy of SSHE and do it.

Edit #2 - If we had position, then we could peel here. If, for instance, you had raised in early position, and it folded to the same guy who in this scenario is in one of the blinds. Why? Let's assume you peel this flop and hit top pair on the turn.

When you are ahead, the most you will probably win is two bets. When you are behind, you will probably lose at least two bets.

If you have position, then when you are behind you lose at most two bets (if you can fold to a check-raise or a bet/3-bet line), but when you are ahead you will win at least two bets.