Which Team Would Have the Best Chance to Beat Ohio State?

[bernie]

'91 Huskies.

b

[MyTurn2Raise]

this thread, obviously, makes me vomit

Michigan is at best 25% to beat Ohio State on a nuetral field and that is a reach

I don't know how many ways to state this:
Ohio State thoroughly owned the first match-up between the two teams and would be expected to again.
I'm not sure what you guys look at when watching a football game, but looking at the final score is the equivalent to results-oriented bs thinking in playing poker.
tOSU did whatever it wanted, whenever it wanted with the ball.
Ohio State had 503 yards on 70 offensive plays. That is what, 7.2 ypp or so.
Michigan had a very respectable 397 yards on 65 plays...6.1 ypp.
That is over a full yard per play difference. Yards per play is the best predictor of points scored by any team. A one yard per play difference works out to roughly 8 points difference. Here, you have over a 9 points difference between the teams.

Then, you get into the turnovers. Turnovers appear to be dumb luck. Often, viewing a game, they are just that. However, there are precursors and situations that do force a high number of turnovers. It's not based on previous turnovers in a game. Turnovers in one game are a terrible predictor of turnovers in another. There are a few things that are much better. They are tackles for loss per play run and the number of plays run in 3rd and 8 or longer situations. In both of those, Ohio State was expected to have an edge and did indeed have the edge in the game.

Basically, the line going in was Ohio State -7. Everything that happened on the field suggested that Michigan was outplayed by more than 7 points...much closer to 12-15 range. It was an outlier final score for Michigan to only lose by 3 points. Giving my rudimentary range of outcomes (my handicapping tools aren't that refined yet), it was a top 20% outcome for Michigan.
Even allowing for a nuetral field instead of at Ohio State, there is no way any smart money should get anywhere near the Wolverines at a 7 point spread.
Michigan has little chance.

[MyTurn2Raise]

now, the 2nd part

LSU compared to Michigan

I don't know how to state it any clearer, but LSU is a better team than Michigan and would be favored over them on a nuetral field with an efficient market.

lets go position by position

QB: Jamarcus Russell (Matt Flynn) v Chad Henne
Henne is a game manager at best. Though he has slowly improved throughout his career, he is not a QB that will lead Michigan to any victories. Henne struggles to make plays and to move along in his progressions. He often fixes in on a target. He has gotten better about not forcing the ball to that target for interceptions, but he still is not a guy who is going to make a big play for the team. Russell can make the big play, but is also a risk-taker who will make the big play for the other team. He does a below average job at presnap reads, but gets through progressions quick, has a strong arm, and can create on his own. He isn't a scrambler, but can pull off the big run when needed. Matt Flynn is a capable back-up, who, IMO, is a better version of Chad Henne.

edge: Big LSU

[ridonkulous]

Notre Dame would destroy OSU.

[MyTurn2Raise]

Running Backs: Keiland Willams, Allie Broussard, Justin Vincent, Holliday, and Jacob Hester v Michael Hart, Grady, Minor, and Jackson

LSU has at least 3 tailbacks that should start at more than 80% of BCS conference teams. They feature Keiland Williams as the season has gone on and Jacob Hester is the reliable fullback. Hester makes more big plays than any fullback in the country, including Brian Leonard. He is great on the quick hitter and can dance through a tight spot or pound forward for a yard or two. He is a tremendous weapon catching the ball. Keiland Williams is quick and powerful. He fits into the lineage of LSU tailbacks that now seem to be popping up all over the NFL. Broussard and Vincent have all started and been huge stars at one time or another in their careers. Both are still not what they once were, but are very capable back-ups that allow LSU to hit their opponents with fresh, physical backs over and over. Holliday is a 5'6" lightning bolt that comes in for the quick surprises once or twice per game. He is averaging over 12 ypc! Defenses don't know what hit them.

Michael Hart is a great back who has excelled once again this year. His body withstood the pounding this season due to better backups and weaker opponents. Everyone knows how great Michael Hart is...this guy is heisman potential. Michigan's backups, much like LSU's, are quality guys that could start at many div1A schools.

Hart is the best back, but LSU has the depth and the better fullback.

edge: EVEN

[Scary_Tiger]

[ QUOTE ]
Running Backs: Keiland Willams, Allie Broussard, Justin Vincent, Holliday, and Jacob Hester v Michael Hart, Grady, Minor, and Jackson

LSU has at least 3 tailbacks that should start at more than 80% of BCS conference teams. They feature Keiland Williams as the season has gone on and Jacob Hester is the reliable fullback. Hester makes more big plays than any fullback in the country, including Brian Leonard. He is great on the quick hitter and can dance through a tight spot or pound forward for a yard or two. He is a tremendous weapon catching the ball. Keiland Williams is quick and powerful. He fits into the lineage of LSU tailbacks that now seem to be popping up all over the NFL. Broussard and Vincent have all started and been huge stars at one time or another in their careers. Both are still not what they once were, but are very capable back-ups that allow LSU to hit their opponents with fresh, physical backs over and over. Holliday is a 5'6" lightning bolt that comes in for the quick surprises once or twice per game. He is averaging over 12 ypc! Defenses don't know what hit them.

Michael Hart is a great back who has excelled once again this year. His body withstood the pounding this season due to better backups and weaker opponents. Everyone knows how great Michael Hart is...this guy is heisman potential. Michigan's backups, much like LSU's, are quality guys that could start at many div1A schools.

Hart is the best back, but LSU has the depth and the better fullback.

edge: EVEN

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Comparing running backs and because LSU has better backups and fullbacks it's even?

lol

[MyTurn2Raise]

wide receivers

Davis, Doucett, and Bowe v Manningham, Breaston, Arrington, and Butler

well, the only team with a better set of wideouts than LSU is SC. Davis, Doucett, and Bowe are quick and talented. They run good routes and make catches. No defense in the country has enough talent to hold them down. Their only downfall is they aren't the best rush blockers.
Manningham runs routes poor, but has the speed and hands to go deep. Breaston has been a disappointing speed only guy. Arrington is the best route runner on Michigan, but doesn't break away often enough. The big problem in this is separating how much the two qbs play a role. However, there is just too much talented speed on LSU. They are quicker than the Michigan receivers and run better routes.

edge: LSU

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Running Backs: Keiland Willams, Allie Broussard, Justin Vincent, Holliday, and Jacob Hester v Michael Hart, Grady, Minor, and Jackson

LSU has at least 3 tailbacks that should start at more than 80% of BCS conference teams. They feature Keiland Williams as the season has gone on and Jacob Hester is the reliable fullback. Hester makes more big plays than any fullback in the country, including Brian Leonard. He is great on the quick hitter and can dance through a tight spot or pound forward for a yard or two. He is a tremendous weapon catching the ball. Keiland Williams is quick and powerful. He fits into the lineage of LSU tailbacks that now seem to be popping up all over the NFL. Broussard and Vincent have all started and been huge stars at one time or another in their careers. Both are still not what they once were, but are very capable back-ups that allow LSU to hit their opponents with fresh, physical backs over and over. Holliday is a 5'6" lightning bolt that comes in for the quick surprises once or twice per game. He is averaging over 12 ypc! Defenses don't know what hit them.

Michael Hart is a great back who has excelled once again this year. His body withstood the pounding this season due to better backups and weaker opponents. Everyone knows how great Michael Hart is...this guy is heisman potential. Michigan's backups, much like LSU's, are quality guys that could start at many div1A schools.

Hart is the best back, but LSU has the depth and the better fullback.

edge: EVEN

[/ QUOTE ]

Comparing running backs and because LSU has better backups and fullbacks it's even?

lol

[/ QUOTE ]

perhaps, I should go with the LSU 4.62 ypc to Michigan's 4.47 ypc. do I need to bring up Hester's 34 catches for 257 and 3 TDs to further solidify the importance of the fullback?

[MyTurn2Raise]

offensive line

I don't evaluate these guys much. Both are quite good. Both only allow 1.5 sacks per game. LSU has the better rushing yards per play. LSU has faced stiffer defenses throughout the year.
From that breakdown

EDGE: slight LSU

[ QUOTE ]
how'd you decide on the choices for the poll?

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Do you mean why isn't ND there? The season is over. Nobody has to pretend that ND is a top 10 team anymore.