AA on coordinated 3 flush board gets minraised by passive shorty

#1 10-04-2007, 01:50 AM

villain is 32/3/0.8.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG ($29.80)
MP ($52.75)
CO ($32.70)
Hero ($134.50)
SB ($51.45)
BB ($53)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.5, 2 folds, UTG calls $2.

Flop: ($5.75) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $8.5, UTG raises to $17, Hero raises to $132, UTG calls $10.30 (All-In).

Turn: ($60.35) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($60.35) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $60.35

Lego05 · #2 10-04-2007, 02:06 AM

8.5 into 5.75???

I don't think I'm folding after that against a 60BB stack.

UptownExpress · #3 10-04-2007, 02:34 AM

flop overbet on super coordinated board with 1 pair is bad. i would suggest u simply open shove if you are going to play this way. rest is standard.

Aceium · #4 10-04-2007, 04:11 AM

I don't mind shoving here against a short stack. The range that is calling you is often behind AA. Even if they have a semi-decent draw, you are still +EV in my approximation. If I am wrong, someone please correct me. If you were beat on the flop, then UTG obviously sucked out and this is variance.

The case for folding here comes from the huge overbet on the flop. However, I don't think villan will be pushing a made hand this hard on this flop. I would still raise in this situation.

netstorm · #5 10-04-2007, 05:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't mind shoving here against a short stack. The range that is calling you is often behind AA. Even if they have a semi-decent draw, you are still +EV in my approximation. If I am wrong, someone please correct me.

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What range are you putting him on when he minraised (and is basically saying he wants to get it allin, since he's short) to an overbet from a PFR?
[ QUOTE ]

If you were beat on the flop, then UTG obviously sucked out and this is variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is very wrong. We put $2,5 into the pot preflop. Thats hardly where most of the money went in. Its about postflop poker in these kind of spots. So no, he didnt suck out, and no it is not variance. You have much information when a passive player makes this play.

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I dont like the overbet on the flop. I would make it a PSB, and fold to any resistance, since we dont have the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. With it, I would be getting my money in all day everyday. His minraise looks so strong, given his passiveness, even when you overbet the pot.

I did a few runs through pokerstove (didnt copy paste them, since it were too many runs, and too many card combo's)

Assuming he is doing this with any pair or better and any draw (that is within his preflop range) you have at best 38% equity. This % drops considerabely when you only put him on strong draws (T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]x) or made hands. (to about 32-33%)

After his minraise you have to bet $27.30 (he is never folding here) to win $41.55, or 1 to 1.5. These odds arent good enough.

Fold.

#6 10-04-2007, 06:15 AM

Thanks for replies. Yea, I usualy don`t overbet the flop. I guess I did it, trying to commit myself in case I encounter resistance.

Netstorm, I like your analisys regarding the hand. I really don`t think villain would mess around on this board without a strong hand, especialy considering his passiveness.

I had a good session, yesterday with expection of this hand.

BevillTheDevil · #7 10-04-2007, 01:16 PM

if the sample size is reasonable then id probably just make a standard cbet and fold to a raise. I dont think a villian w/ .8 AF is goin to raise this flop w/ a draw or like TPTK very often and there are tons of hands that are in his range that have you beat straights, flushs, 2 pair combo, sometimes sets. I typically wanta instashove AA here but i think against this guy it makes it an easyer fold.

Waingro · #8 10-04-2007, 02:08 PM

Netstorm,

villain has $18.80 left after our flop bet, giving us exactly 2:1.

netstorm · #9 10-04-2007, 02:15 PM

edit: You're right, I forgot that we had already put $8,50 in the pot.

This makes this call barely neutral EV if we assign him a loose range. Still -EV if he has a tight range though.