Silly TD2-7 Theory Question

[MarkGritter]

You emerge from a drunken haze only to find that you're sitting on the button at a high-stakes triple draw game. You've exposed your hand--- 7432K--- but perhaps you are lucky that's all you've exposed.

It's the last draw. You haven't yet discarded, and you only have one opponent left: Teddy KGB (though unfortunately for you he's all out of Oreos). But he's a good sport. ``I vill show my draw, too!'' he exclaims and reveals the same hand, as he waves away your attempt to negotiate a chop.

``But wait! Also, I vish to buy your button. How much for your button?'' Teddy thinks this is a great joke.

The big bet is $2000. You see about $16,000 in the middle of the table and you've got $8000 left in front of you. How much do you charge Teddy for the privilege of acting second?

[DeathDonkey]

I charge him as much as I think he'll pay, but I don't believe it's worth that much. Checking in the dark is clearly worse than getting to act last, but not like $1000 worth. I think $200 sounds about right but can't prove it.

-DeathDonkey

[2461Badugi]

[ QUOTE ]
Checking in the dark is clearly worse than getting to act last, but not like $1000 worth.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hm. Mark, can you constrain the tool to force a Player A check? I'm curious how much checking in the dark costs vs. just playing in first position.

I chose the silly answer on the poll because I already know the real one.

ETA: actually, this pot is bigger than the one Mark told me the real answer for. I expect the answer to be pretty close, though.

[phiphika1453]

Are Teddy and I the only two that have put money in this pot?

Are we drawing the last card face up?

[MarkGritter]

Your drunken haze prevents an answer to the first question (all you know is how much is there now.)

The last card is drawn face down.

[*TT*]

Facts:

* its 8:1

* By seeing his draw you can discount your outs.

* Discounting your outs wont help you determine proper pot ods, no matter what your already getting it

* By knowing the dead cards, you can increase your proper bluffing frequency. I think your sucess at bluffing at the pot will be at least 4:1 against, which is of course better than the pot odds.

* Giving Teddy a big bet would make your odds 4:2, or 2:1. If you hit perfect (lets assume thats 8 outs) and he calls with a rough hand like 87xxx you win an extra bet every time, refunding your investment to give up the button.

In short, I think the hero is at a great advantage by acting first in this situation, a rare example where being out of position is good in 2-7. I think its worth no more than 1 small bet - 1k. I voted 1.2k since thats closest. I spent around 50 seconds on this analysis because thats what I would do playing live, someone please correct any errors they find.

[MarkGritter]

Perhaps it wasn't sufficiently clear in the description--- both hands are face up (before discarding) and Teddy has 7432K as well. The third round of betting has concluded. You are a dead heat pot-equity wise to win the hand.

It sounds like your answer is actually "$0 --- I'd prefer to act first" (and bluff).

[*TT*]

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps it wasn't sufficiently clear in the description--- both hands are face up (before discarding) and Teddy has 7432K as well. The third round of betting has concluded. You are a dead heat pot-equity wise to win the hand.

It sounds like your answer is actually "$0 --- I'd prefer to act first" (and bluff).

[/ QUOTE ]

My bad, I thought he waived his cards to say he will show if he can buy the button. Hmm.. I think its better to act first, and I want to charge him the max of course, but how much its worth is now a bit more confusing.

[DeathDonkey]

If acting first is better than acting last here I'll quit poker <font color="white"> for a day </font>

-DeathDonkey

[*TT*]

[ QUOTE ]
If acting first is better than acting last here I'll quit poker <font color="white"> for a day </font>

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

Once you know the dead cards, and have a clue of his range, then this is a rare situation where acting first is pretty good. The hero has more bluffing opportunities than the button does. This is of course assuming the button is not prone to raise with air, which would negate the OOP's slight edge.