When Bookies Make Big Line Errors

youtalkfunny · #1 11-30-2007, 02:35 PM

Allow me to answer your question with a question:

My bookie dropped his wallet. I picked it up. It contains thousands of dollars.

Should I return it?

For what it's worth, I'm stuck for year.

CarlSpackler · #2 11-30-2007, 03:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Allow me to answer your question with a question:

My bookie dropped his wallet. I picked it up. It contains thousands of dollars.

Should I return it?

For what it's worth, I'm stuck for year.

[/ QUOTE ]

This analogy isn't valid, IMO. It's not like he mistakenly set the o/u at 72. It's at 42. That's only 18.3% off the regular line. I highly doubt most of the people betting through him will even notice anything odd about the o/u. Also, it's not like this bet is completely risk free, even with the extra 6.5 points.

Fwiw I already have a great relationship with him. Also, as I alluded to earlier, I brought him a client that's made him more $$$ the last several weeks than anyone else ever has. And if I do decide to play it, I'm not going to bet it any bigger than my regular big bets. Actually, the more I think about it, I could put in all my plays for the weekend tomorrow morning, play this straight up, include it a parlay or 2, play dumb, and make a comment after my bets are in that the total seems kind of high. This will give him the option to correct the line, and even cancel my bets. On a scale of 1 to 10 how unethical is this?

youtalkfunny · #3 11-30-2007, 04:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This analogy isn't valid, IMO. It's not like he mistakenly set the o/u at 72. It's at 42.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok then, the wallet doesn't contain thousands. Just a few twenties.

[ QUOTE ]
On a scale of 1 to 10 how unethical is this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Cash me out. I'm done.

You can't put "unethical" on a 1-10 scale. Only a 0-1 scale, where:

0 = Ethical

1 = Unethical

If you're looking for forgiveness for committing an act that you know is wrong, look elsewhere.

kaboshedx · #4 11-30-2007, 04:10 PM

Only 18.3% eh? You sound like a massive square.

Thus, I believe your most +EV play is to pound the errant line, hope you hit one time, and get cut off from this book. This saves you all the $$ you would've lost in the future.

Performify · #5 11-30-2007, 05:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Allow me to answer your question with a question:

My bookie dropped his wallet. I picked it up. It contains thousands of SklanskyBucks.

Should I return it?

For what it's worth, I'm stuck for year.

[/ QUOTE ]

This analogy isn't valid, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

"Fixed" the analogy if you want to be a complete nit.

(not like it wasn't "fixed" before, considering most of us would consider "massively +EV" to be the same thing...)

-P

domer2 · #6 11-30-2007, 05:43 PM

maybe he hung a bad line purposefully...either way, he is responsible for what he puts out there. if he is up on you, i wouldn't even sweat it at all. if you routinely bet bad lines he'll probably stop booking your action, but an errant line or two, nah. i've heard guys grumble about typos or clerk error before. they live with it.

dali situation is 180 degrees different, or as Jason Kidd would say, 360 degrees different

Henry17 · #7 11-30-2007, 06:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
How long do you expect to keep being able to play with him when you take shots at him like this? Or how long he'll stay liquid if he is a big enough idiot to not recognize these errors?

[/ QUOTE ]

I've never received a wrong line from a bookie but a few years ago he did make several mistakes with time changes. If it was a constant problem I'd worry about his liquidly but it was twice in the same year but the only two errors in over a decade so not a major concern.

I was going to bet both games anyway and missed the time changes myself till I saw the score scroll by. I did increase by bet but not enough that had he noticed it wouldn't have been a major issue. I would have just claimed I missed the time change.

Bowman's had a wrong line and with them I had no issues taking advantage of the mistake. I couldn't get much money on it unfortunately but they did honour the bet.

Thremp · #8 11-30-2007, 06:05 PM

Henry,

Interesting. From what I gather the OP is a probably a losing sports bettor and brings in other squares. In this case I'd probably take a shot at the line 100% or if I have other outs that were easy to use. (Also, given that he's made another error that was caught by our not totally razor sharp friend makes me wonder about the quality of the bookie) If I planned on staying for a long time, I'd probably go through some elaborate ruse and show him that I don't want to cheat him out of his money.

Henry17 · #9 11-30-2007, 06:35 PM

If you went from $100 to $5k he'd know you were trying to cheat him but if you just bet your normal amount or within your normal range then I don't think he could say anything.

The problem with using a bookie is that it takes a long time to find one that is good. Someone who is small and making these kind of errors is not going to be around for a long time.

CarlSpackler · #10 11-30-2007, 07:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Henry,

Interesting. From what I gather the OP is a probably a losing sports bettor and brings in other squares. In this case I'd probably take a shot at the line 100% or if I have other outs that were easy to use. (Also, given that he's made another error that was caught by our not totally razor sharp friend makes me wonder about the quality of the bookie) If I planned on staying for a long time, I'd probably go through some elaborate ruse and show him that I don't want to cheat him out of his money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, lifetime I'm a slight winner over 11 years (mostly due to 3 big winning years, but I have more leaks than the Titantic). This is easily my worst year though.

My basic pattern over the last few years has been the same -- I'll have a good September, as I put in the work and effort to succeed. Then in October the screws start to come loose. I start feeling a little cocky and then I get lazy, sloppy, and occasionally wreckless. I eventually get back to fundamentals, but then I'm gun shy (i.e. like not hammering Arizona +12.5 vs oregon after the line started plummetting despite the vast majority of the public continuing to bet the Ducks) after enduring the rough patch , and then suffer intermittent bouts of tilt mostly due to not capitalizing on +EV situations. I need to start disciplining myself to not make any plays when I don't put in the work.

And you are correct, I brought in his most profitable square.