help me become a professional

[trixtrix]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thremp, serious question:

As someone who has been semi-interested in learning how to profitably sports bet, mogwai's post above seems to make sense to me. Can you explain where you disagree with his method of learning?

If you were referring to different posts, my mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

The vast majority of beating sports betting lies in line shopping and the math behind it. Handicapping, if you are able to do it, is a skill that is not essential to make a large sum as a professional. Its putting the cart before the horse and people (including myself) make this error *continually* when starting out.

[/ QUOTE ]

*continuously*

apparently you don't believe in grammar also

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thremp, serious question:

As someone who has been semi-interested in learning how to profitably sports bet, mogwai's post above seems to make sense to me. Can you explain where you disagree with his method of learning?

If you were referring to different posts, my mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

The vast majority of beating sports betting lies in line shopping and the math behind it. Handicapping, if you are able to do it, is a skill that is not essential to make a large sum as a professional. Its putting the cart before the horse and people (including myself) make this error *continually* when starting out.

[/ QUOTE ]

*continuously*

apparently you don't believe in grammar also

[/ QUOTE ]

Engrish as a second language

[trixtrix]

[ QUOTE ]

Some questions:

2. Would a guy who is a fantasy expert (say in NBA), be able to profitably beat the sport?

I ask this question because personally I don't think many of these fantasy experts can beat the sport. I think it takes more than just a understanding of the players and the sport to beat it betting.

Only problem is I don't know what it is that makes these fantasy experts fail at sports betting, despite having a strong knowledge the league's players and teams.

So why is it that these fantasy guys can beat the game?


[/ QUOTE ]

think of it as an extension of the peters principle, or the lowest common denominator. this is akin to asking why some family kitchen table big poker winners can't beat 30/60.. if they could, they'd be doing it instead of grinding out pennies on family night w/ one-eyed jacks wild games. since they can't, they have to stick to winning the smaller games.

this is also the reason why 2/4 players move up to 10/20 games and have their br destroyed. cream rises to the top, an efficient market will always dictate how far up the scale level you can rise before you hit the ceiling..

another factor that was mentioned in yao's book in terms of teaching sportsbetting knowledge and have not been mentioned yet in this thread is that, sportsbetting is different than poker and more similar to a financial market but on a much smaller scale. therefore, if i teach you poker, the chances of you using the same skills against me is small as there are many independent table games going on at once all over the world and what you do is very unlikely to impact me. however, sportsbetting is different in that all the money essentially goes into a one large dependent pool, therefore, teaching you how to spot an edge to bet will very likely have an effect on the same edge i will have over the same bet, as essentially all books (BM and offshore) are interconnected. since sportsbetting market is nowhere near the size of billion dollar financial markets, in some cases, it will only take a few thousand dollar br for you to affect my edge in some way..

[cato-tonia]

[ QUOTE ]

Some questions:

2. Would a guy who is a fantasy expert (say in NBA), be able to profitably beat the sport?

[/ QUOTE ]

some fantasy experts make good money betting props; this seems a logical extension of the method.

-c

[alwardc4]

I am somewhat new to sports beting. I have been taking it seriously for about 3 months and have had good success thus far. I am up around 30 units since I started. ROI around 15% (that will come down I know). Here is how I started.

1. I read the FAQ many times. In fact, I still read it occasionally to keep myself updated.

2. I ordered Wong's book. Read it twice. It has been instrumental in helping me prop betting. IMHO, prop bets are the best money makers in sports betting. You can find some every week that are 10-15% off. Mainly, I find these in NBA and NFL player props.

3. I discovered some good cappers and I just took their picks every week. Dr. Bob (although only if I get a good line since I don't pay), Rick J, MTTR's POTW, BSP thread, Performity's UFC, Naj's CB system, etc. I would like to become a good capper but that will take time. I would like to stress that I would not take these unless I was getting a good line. Like others have already stressed, line shopping is important.

4. Pride. Or lack there of. Pride is something that is dangerous for any professional gambler. I have been making a good portion of my income for about 8 years through gambling and have NEVER gone busto. One of the things that I have found instrumental for me is my lack of pride. If I needed to drop a level, I did. If it got to the point where I could not beat a certain game, I quit playing it or stopped until I studied more. Don't try to be too clever. Just make money.

That's my .02$

[NajdorfDefense]

If BR Mgmt is #1 skill, and it is, then learning how and when to drop a level is the most important part of that skill. Good call. You can do everything right and still lose 15-16 in a row. Rare, but it can and does happen.

[King Yao]

[ QUOTE ]
another factor that was mentioned in yao's book in terms of teaching sportsbetting knowledge and have not been mentioned yet in this thread is that, sportsbetting is different than poker and more similar to a financial market but on a much smaller scale. therefore, if i teach you poker, the chances of you using the same skills against me is small as there are many independent table games going on at once all over the world and what you do is very unlikely to impact me. however, sportsbetting is different in that all the money essentially goes into a one large dependent pool, therefore, teaching you how to spot an edge to bet will very likely have an effect on the same edge i will have over the same bet, as essentially all books (BM and offshore) are interconnected. since sportsbetting market is nowhere near the size of billion dollar financial markets, in some cases, it will only take a few thousand dollar br for you to affect my edge in some way..

[/ QUOTE ]

FYI, upon the release of my book, I received several comments from pros basically saying: "good job covering some topics but not giving away the store. please don't write a follow-up book"

[King Yao]

In the same tone as what trixtrix mentioned in his post in this thread, I'll say that its tough finding a coach in sports betting that is worthwhile. Pros aren't going to be happy to give someone else info that may hinder them from making the same bets. Instead of looking to teach others, sports bettors seem to try to gather in equals. For example, a pro may be willing to tell another pro about something knowing that the other pro will reciprocate with his knowledge, and they'll both benefit. But if it is a one-sided relationship, it is not appealing. Of course you could find a coach that doesn't know what he's doing, but then that would be negative-EV to you.

My suggestion is to read as much as possible, including my book - Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting (shameless plug, apologies), Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong (who is also my publisher) and read online forums. The tough part in the online forums is trying to weed out the crap from the good stuff.

Its not easy to win at sports betting for most people. But its not that difficult to win at sports betting for sharp minds.

[rjp]

"please don't write a follow-up book"

Please do. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[cato-tonia]

[ QUOTE ]
If BR Mgmt is #1 skill, and it is, then learning how and when to drop a level is the most important part of that skill. Good call. You can do everything right and still lose 15-16 in a row. Rare, but it can and does happen.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you're losing that many games in a row, you're not hitting at anywhere high enough percentage to make money at this game.

accepting as true this forum's belief that 57% win is professional standard, you can expect to see

3 consecutive losses 10% of the time;
4 consecutive losses 5% of the time;
6 consecutive losses 1% of the time;

if you're seeing 15 losses in a row even ONCE per life-time of betting sports you're in the realm of statistical anomaly; OR, you're in fact lousy, and only hitting roughly 33% of your plays. but then, it's also true that most folks are lousy, and would do better tossing darts than selecting winners.

the most consecutive losses i've encountered at this game is 8. and that was a product of a hangover.

-c