$225: TP + flush draw

[Shillx]

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I like the play. Another flush draw is unlikely to call because they're odds are poor and if they do call your pair and and the fact you have two of their outs makes you a favourite. You may be against a higher pocket pair or a set but this isn't that likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with all of this.

- I wouldn't expect a flush draw to fold
- I wouldn't fold a flush draw in his spot
- You will probably be a dog if called by a flush draw (this is debatable)
- He will oftentimes have an overpair and that is why a push is clearly correct. We are only small dog against one but something like 77 will be in bad shape against our range and we give him the chance to call and make a major mistake. And even when he makes the right play we still net a good amount of equity.

Against one projected range, 77 has ~23% equity against us and A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] has over 41%. That is right around the point where it becomes +$EV to call (in reality the % is lower but that is the case under freezeout conditions).