*** Official August - October Chatter Thread ***

[NajdorfDefense]

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D-Backs *clap clap* D-Backs *clap clap*

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[NajdorfDefense]

Phils +150 game 3, 1u
Rox to win Series -600, full Kelly says 85% of bankroll. Use Kelly/2 or/3 or /4 as needed.

edit: full credit to the crock who potted this one.

[NajdorfDefense]

error above, ignore Kelly %.

[MyTurn2Raise]

phew...I spent about 5 minutes going over the calcs and trying to see what I was missing

still a nice edge though

[NajdorfDefense]

Yeah, I had already maxed it anyway, then decided to figure the Kelly later so wasn't paying attention.

[Schwatt]

So I was trying to figure out a way to take advantage of 5 dimes shading NFL lines to prevent teasers. Why can't we tease them the opposite way?

Here is a possible theory, I am probably an idiot, but looks +EV:

Buffalo true line +10 --------- 5 dimes +11 @ -135
Tampa Bay true line +9.5 ----- 5 dimes +11 @ -135

So I tease these two @ -110 for 6.5 pts(standard at most books for a 2 teamer 6 pts @ -110)

Buffalo gains half the 10, full 13,14,17
Tampa gains full 10,13,14,17

So essentially I got a 7.5 pt teaser combined with an 8pt teaser for -110.

Teams getting an 8 pt bonus won 73.2% of the time from 2000-2005
Teams getting a 7.5 pt bonus won 72.1% of the time from 2000-2005.

These numbers compared to actual "Wongs" over the same period:

home faves -7.5 to -8.5 teased 6 pts: 72% cover
road faves -7.5 to -8.5 teased 6 pts: 65% cover
home dogs +1.5 to +2.5 teased 6 pts: 73% cover
road dogs +1.5 to +2.5 teased 6 pts: 70% cover

Thoughts?

[Thremp]

Schwatt,

I'm stunned you can manage to breath and walk at the same time.

[trixtrix]

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Schwatt,

I'm stunned you can manage to breath and walk at the same time.

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the man demonstrated more thoughts in his teasers than post-oak ever did, why are you making fun of him?

taking advantage of shaded lines on counter-intuitive teasers is a true advantage play

[trixtrix]

[ QUOTE ]
So I was trying to figure out a way to take advantage of 5 dimes shading NFL lines to prevent teasers. Why can't we tease them the opposite way?

Here is a possible theory, I am probably an idiot, but looks +EV:

Buffalo true line +10 --------- 5 dimes +11 @ -135
Tampa Bay true line +9.5 ----- 5 dimes +11 @ -135

So I tease these two @ -110 for 6.5 pts(standard at most books for a 2 teamer 6 pts @ -110)

Buffalo gains half the 10, full 13,14,17
Tampa gains full 10,13,14,17

So essentially I got a 7.5 pt teaser combined with an 8pt teaser for -110.

Teams getting an 8 pt bonus won 73.2% of the time from 2000-2005
Teams getting a 7.5 pt bonus won 72.1% of the time from 2000-2005.

These numbers compared to actual "Wongs" over the same period:

home faves -7.5 to -8.5 teased 6 pts: 72% cover
road faves -7.5 to -8.5 teased 6 pts: 65% cover
home dogs +1.5 to +2.5 teased 6 pts: 73% cover
road dogs +1.5 to +2.5 teased 6 pts: 70% cover

Thoughts?

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this is on the right track but not quite there, to ascertain the expectation of the play you need to figure out how much is gained on the key #s you cross such as half/full 10, 14, and 17.

finding the success rate on randomly teasing teams up 7.5/8 pts is going to give you skewed results. the most obvious skewed data you will get is when the 7.5 pt tease cross over both 3's, ie teasing a -3.5 fav, as it will allow you to cross over the most heavily weighted number on the spread twice. other skews will come in the form +17.5 or more dogs (there aren't many) where teasing 7.5/8 pts is essentially meaningless as there are no more key numbers to cross

[kdog]

[ QUOTE ]
this is on the right track but not quite there, to ascertain the expectation of the play you need to figure out how much is gained on the key #s you cross such as half/full 10, 14, and 17.

finding the success rate on randomly teasing teams up 7.5/8 pts is going to give you skewed results. the most obvious skewed data you will get is when the 7.5 pt tease cross over both 3's, ie teasing a -3.5 fav, as it will allow you to cross over the most heavily weighted number on the spread twice. other skews will come in the form +17.5 or more dogs (there aren't many) where teasing 7.5/8 pts is essentially meaningless as there are no more key numbers to cross




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Trix...

Another game 5Dimes is skewing the teaser line on is the NY Jets/NY Giants game where they are using Giants -3 for teasers instead of the WA -3.5.

Since a 6.5 pt tease using the Giants would cross both 3's because of the skewed line, this would be +EV? How about using all three of these in a 6.5 pt tease where they lay you 8.25-5?