25 NL: Interesting spot with a set deepstacked

[Warteen]

As usual, I am posting this hand from memory, so forgive me if it's a little rough.
Villain is a regular who is a fairly solid TAGish player. I haven't noticed any big leaks in his game that have been noteworthy.

25 NL on World Poker Exchange and we are both two stacks deep. Six handed.

Hero (Button) is dealt [3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]].
3 fold, Hero raises to $1, SB folds, Villain (BB) calls.

Flop (~$2): [3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]
Villain checks, Hero bets $1.50, Villain (hesitates and) calls.

Turn (~$5): [4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]
Villain checks, Hero bets $4, Villain raises to $12, Hero calls.

River (~$29): [J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]
Villain checks, Hero...

Thoughts? I believe this villain isn't playing 56 OOP for a raise, but it's possible. Just calling his checkraise on the turn was because I thought there was a chance he had A5 for the straight (and I hoped the board would pair on the river). If he has the nuts (or near it), though, why not bet the bricked river? What's the villain's range here? Are we betting our set on the river when we each still have over $30 behind, or are we sacrificing some value by checking to see a showdown since we believe our set may be vulnerable? What's my line?

[TheSalche]

Easy bet, he could have an overpair here for sure. If he had 56 that's tough but you gotta get max value when you flop a set.

[Dogballs88]

I can understand your concerns, but I'm not worried about a straight here - if he's calling your raise OOP with A5, he's not as solid as you make him out to be.

He may well have something you beat, bet $15 and call a shove.

[Warteen]

What range are we putting Villain on that makes value-betting the river profitable? Salche mentioned an overpair... anything else? (Obviously if he was semi-bluffing his draw on the turn, the river bet has no value.)

[Dogballs88]

An overpair is most likely, AJ spades is also very possible.

[chrismystero]

[ QUOTE ]
An overpair is most likely, AJ spades is also very possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

I barely see AsJs as possible because I feel it is unlikely to call that flop just to 'bluff' the turn. I think if AsJs was even remotely possible Villain would have raised the flop.

[michaelantoi]

You say villain hesitates, but timing tells are hardly solid tells.

A7. Small chance of A3 and he was semi-bluff raising the turn.

Value bet river

Maybe a poorly played overpair. Something like 88-TT and he was raising the turn to push out any draws.

Value bet river.

[TheSalche]

I really don't know what villain has, but he is very unlikely to have a hand that beats us here. If he really had a good hand he'd probably lead the river after raising the turn.

[Kvetchie]

I'd say pocket pair, the question is if he hit a set or not.. I would check behind here, he's not raising 12$ on 5$ to see a cheap showdown out of position.. either he's bluffing or he hit his set and you're behind. Well, just my 0.02$, I might be too scared but since you both have deep stacks, I wouldnt like to lose it all for unsure hand.

[Warteen]

Alright, I've heard some discussion and am thinking maybe I made the wrong move over all cases... but here we are with some results:

River (~$29): [J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]
Villain checks, Hero checks.

Villain shows [4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] and wins with three of a kind, fours.
Hero mucks.

In the discussion after the hand, Villain was shocked that I had checked behind with a set. I defended my play in much the same way as Kvetchie - not wanting to lose it all for my unsure hand when we still had more than a full stack behind. It looks like my instinct was right here, but most people seem to prefer to bet in this position. Thanks for the input, guys; that's why I posted.