5/10 tough river spot

[KingGordy]

Villain in this hand is a LAG, running at about 40/18 over the 100 or so hands I have on him. My only note on him is that he overbet pushed with a draw once (not this session, this was from a long time ago). He has been opening quite a few pots, but he seems to be playing reasonablly postflop from what little I've seen. We have played one big pot this session, that you can see here

Results of above hand in white:

<font color="white">I shove, villain shows TT and my hand is no good</font>
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $5/$10
3 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Button: $1.099
SB: $2.332
Hero: $1.932

Pre-flop: (3 players) Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Button folds, SB calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $35</font>, SB calls.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($70, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $50</font>, SB calls.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($170, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $130</font>, SB calls.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($430, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $444</font>, Hero ????

[ArturiusX]

Turn seems like an excellent spot to check behind.

[KingGordy]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn seems like an excellent spot to check behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought for quite a while before betting the turn, and really I think both betting and checking have merit in this spot. The problem with betting is that I blow out a lot of weaker hands that are drawing very thin, that may be willing to put in money on the river if I represent weakness on the turn. It also sucks getting check raised here.

I bet because I have a pretty strong hand, and I've been trying to expand my double barreling range lately, but perhaps this isn't a good spot for it.

[ArturiusX]

I think the check all depends on whether he's calling with J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T type hands or folding it to a turn bet. If he's folding I like a check behind.

[philipsaurus]

i prob call though i think you lose a fair amount of time.

the question is, what could you be losing too. it seems that a flopped flush would have raised either flop or turn. i could see the nut flush slowplaying two streets but you have the Ac, so thats that. i also doubt he c/c c/c with a set here. hmm, maybe KcJx? that would be sick but that flop call is marginal. there is very little he could be bluffing with, and no hands really make sense. im just talking to myself now. yea, just call.

edit to add: i think you should bet this turn the majority of hte time fwiw.

[KingGordy]

[ QUOTE ]
i prob call though i think you lose a fair amount of time.

the question is, what could you be losing too. it seems that a flopped flush would have raised either flop or turn. i could see the nut flush slowplaying two streets but you have the Ac, so thats that. i also doubt he c/c c/c with a set here. hmm, maybe KcJx? that would be sick but that flop call is marginal. there is very little he could be bluffing with, and no hands really make sense. im just talking to myself now. yea, just call.

edit to add: i think you should bet this turn the majority of hte time fwiw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this analysis, although I'll have to disagree slightly about the flopped flush. The first thought that went through my mind when he lead out on the river like that was something along the lines of 'the bastard flopped it'. I don't know why I felt that way, as I agree it's a very strange way to play it, it just had that feel to it.

I think we can discount all the sets to a fair degree, as I'm fairly sure a guy as aggro as him would open any pocket pair from the SB, plus he would probably want to play them faster postflop. I don't really see him playing a lower two pair like this, although something like AT is possible (that would be a marginal turn call on his part though with second pair no club). I think something like KcJ is possible as you stated as well.

Based on this analysis I think it's pretty rare he's value betting a lesser hand, so the only question is whether an aggro, relative unknown is going to show up with a bluff here often enough for me to call.

Anyone else with thoughts on this hand?

[JaBlue]

His openlimp majorly discounts what seem like the most likely hands here, namely AT and K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Jx. Its really hard to put him on anything else. We have two pair, I'd expect a weird bluff a decent amount of the time and a value bet from a lesser hand some of the time too, so I am definitely calling here. Raising looks bad.

[king_of_drafts]

Yeah I snap call this.