Is this +EV against 20/19/1 ?

[aka_bebel]

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Logun, you can't c/r in position. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I like it, you trap CO's money a decent amount of time and you have plenty of outs if you're called.

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I think I would play the same but if he calls and we miss and he bets big I think its an easy fold.

thac .. what do you if he put you all in?

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It's just a pokerstove question, if we assume he shoves 2pr+ and maybe AK, we just run the pokerstove and figure it out.

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Board: Ah 4h 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.958% 32.96% 00.00% 12725 0.00 { QhTh }
Hand 1: 67.042% 67.04% 00.00% 25885 0.00 { AA, 99, 44, AKs, A9s, A4s, AKo, A9o, A4o }

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We gotta call $36 to win approximately $100 (just a bit over it). So we're getting almost the right odds, and if he can shove AQ or something else, we should call.

Also, if we know he shoves that range, we can raise a bit more (to like 16) so we're getting odds against that range.

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I done the math and we are close.But isn't this a high variance move ?
or..sometimes he folds and we win the pot there and when he puts us all in we are almost even money?

[thac]

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Logun, you can't c/r in position. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I like it, you trap CO's money a decent amount of time and you have plenty of outs if you're called.

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I think I would play the same but if he calls and we miss and he bets big I think its an easy fold.

thac .. what do you if he put you all in?

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It's just a pokerstove question, if we assume he shoves 2pr+ and maybe AK, we just run the pokerstove and figure it out.

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Board: Ah 4h 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.958% 32.96% 00.00% 12725 0.00 { QhTh }
Hand 1: 67.042% 67.04% 00.00% 25885 0.00 { AA, 99, 44, AKs, A9s, A4s, AKo, A9o, A4o }

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We gotta call $36 to win approximately $100 (just a bit over it). So we're getting almost the right odds, and if he can shove AQ or something else, we should call.

Also, if we know he shoves that range, we can raise a bit more (to like 16) so we're getting odds against that range.

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I done the math and we are close.But isn't this a high variance move ?
or..sometimes he folds and we win the pot there and when he puts us all in we are almost even money?

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Right, he's not gonna have the range in pokerstove every time. He's gonna have a high pocket pair or he's gonna have 1nd pair sometime, or just complete air. We have a ton of FE but those times when we get shoved on, we're getting odds to call.

[critikal]

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Logun, you can't c/r in position. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I like it, you trap CO's money a decent amount of time and you have plenty of outs if you're called.

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I think I would play the same but if he calls and we miss and he bets big I think its an easy fold.

thac .. what do you if he put you all in?

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It's just a pokerstove question, if we assume he shoves 2pr+ and maybe AK, we just run the pokerstove and figure it out.

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Board: Ah 4h 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.958% 32.96% 00.00% 12725 0.00 { QhTh }
Hand 1: 67.042% 67.04% 00.00% 25885 0.00 { AA, 99, 44, AKs, A9s, A4s, AKo, A9o, A4o }

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We gotta call $36 to win approximately $100 (just a bit over it). So we're getting almost the right odds, and if he can shove AQ or something else, we should call.

Also, if we know he shoves that range, we can raise a bit more (to like 16) so we're getting odds against that range.

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If he shoves with AQ or something like that also our equity isn't more than a % or so better. We pretty much need to make the flush no matter what to win this hand if he shoves over the top, so I'd just put our equity at 33% (though its actually a little less because the board pairing sometimes screws us). I also don't really think you'll see A9o, A4o, or A4s too often from UTG here either.

I disagree with the last part of your post where you say that for this situation it would be better to raise larger so you have odds to call. There's no difference odds-wise to raising more or calling more at the end, you're still putting in the same amount of money for the same odds. Perhaps a larger raise would be more likely to knock out TT-KK, but I think just about any sized raise will work.

This hand is a very good example of how important position is. Though sometimes I call here too, I think I'm gonna start just folding it. We can't be too sure our hand is good if we hit a Q or a T, and flops that give us a straight draw are likely to hit him as well. The big thing though is that we're going to be OOP the whole time.

[thac]

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Logun, you can't c/r in position. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I like it, you trap CO's money a decent amount of time and you have plenty of outs if you're called.

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I think I would play the same but if he calls and we miss and he bets big I think its an easy fold.

thac .. what do you if he put you all in?

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It's just a pokerstove question, if we assume he shoves 2pr+ and maybe AK, we just run the pokerstove and figure it out.

---

Board: Ah 4h 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.958% 32.96% 00.00% 12725 0.00 { QhTh }
Hand 1: 67.042% 67.04% 00.00% 25885 0.00 { AA, 99, 44, AKs, A9s, A4s, AKo, A9o, A4o }

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We gotta call $36 to win approximately $100 (just a bit over it). So we're getting almost the right odds, and if he can shove AQ or something else, we should call.

Also, if we know he shoves that range, we can raise a bit more (to like 16) so we're getting odds against that range.

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If he shoves with AQ or something like that also our equity isn't more than a % or so better. We pretty much need to make the flush no matter what to win this hand if he shoves over the top, so I'd just put our equity at 33% (though its actually a little less because the board pairing sometimes screws us). I also don't really think you'll see A9o, A4o, or A4s too often from UTG here either.

I disagree with the last part of your post where you say that for this situation it would be better to raise larger so you have odds to call. There's no difference odds-wise to raising more or calling more at the end, you're still putting in the same amount of money for the same odds. Perhaps a larger raise would be more likely to knock out TT-KK, but I think just about any sized raise will work.

This hand is a very good example of how important position is. Though sometimes I call here too, I think I'm gonna start just folding it. We can't be too sure our hand is good if we hit a Q or a T, and flops that give us a straight draw are likely to hit him as well. The big thing though is that we're going to be OOP the whole time.

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By saying 'if he shoves AQ too', I meant if he shoves one-pair hands. This increases our equity with each lower ace that he shoves. A 20/19 will most likely have A9s and A4s, probably not A4o and A9o, good point.

Here's a new pokerstove range, see if you agree with this one better:

Board: Ah 4h 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.136% 34.14% 00.00% 11828 0.00 { QhTh }
Hand 1: 65.864% 65.86% 00.00% 22822 0.00 { AA, 99, 44, AQs+, A9s, A4s, AQo+ }


How can you say that raising more to get better odds is non-existent? If we raise to 16 instead of 14, we have to call 34 into a ~101 pot, which gives us direct odds against our new pokerstove range.

Yeah, position is important, but we can play hands from OOP sometimes. These hands don't play horribly OOP, and there's already a call before us so there's a little extra money in the pot to win. If UTG raised, and no callers called, we obviously fold, but with the cold-caller there's a chance he can have a smaller FD or a dominated hand that we can get lucky and win a decent pot with.

[mojed]

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How can you say that raising more to get better odds is non-existent? If we raise to 16 instead of 14, we have to call 34 into a ~101 pot, which gives us direct odds against our new pokerstove range.


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I guess if we make it 16, then it is correct to get it in given the dead money that is in the pot. But if we'd known we didn't have fold equity and were going to have to get it all in, we would have check folded. In other words, our combined action of betting and calling was incorrect (had we known there was no fold equity) Whereas if we made it only 12, we might be correct to fold to a push (against that range). So if both 12 and 16 give us the same fold equity and the villain will push with the same range, it seems better to me to size the bet smaller.

That said, I wouldn't check raise to 12 because it is too likely to reduce our fold equity.

To really know whether this is +EV, assign the villain a range and divide it into hands that will push all in over our check raise, call and bet turn, call and check turn, and fold. To simplify you could assume villain will jam or fold to the check raise. Then it's easy, he folds x% of hands where you win the preflop pot plus his bet, and he jams (100 - x)% of the time where you win the preflop pot and the rest of his stack however often stove says you do (assuming you have the odds to call), and lose your stack the remaining times.