Friday NCAAF picks - Page 3

playersare · #21 08-31-2007, 01:59 PM

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Which is better, Washington -3 -120 or -3.5 -110?

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10c for the push on 3 is a no brainer.

Ray_bob · #22 08-31-2007, 02:04 PM

ill give you even money on it you can have washington -3. but i only bet anywhere from 5-50$.

playersare · #23 08-31-2007, 02:09 PM

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ill give you even money on it you can have washington -3. but i only bet anywhere from 5-50$.

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so you're offering me Wash U -3 +100 with a $50 max? just let me know what payment methods you have, I can cover them all.

dankhank · #24 08-31-2007, 02:19 PM

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From my point of view you are better off taking the -3.5 for -110 on this game.

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c'mon guys, preseason is over.

NajdorfDefense · #25 08-31-2007, 02:21 PM

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From my point of view you are better off taking the -3.5 for -110 on this game.

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c'mon guys, preseason is over.

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sanmarcosrun1 · #26 08-31-2007, 02:38 PM

As I said it is from my point of view as I know most will disagree with it and it is specific for this game. There are exceptions to every rule and in this case from my analysis this is one of them. Don't want to argue with anyone as most of time I agree with you all that it is best to go with normal stance. If this is not valid then please help talk through this issue.

Edit: I am here to learn and fix any leak I may have. I do not have an ego about these things and am grateful for all the great info you all provide on these topics.

Austiger · #27 08-31-2007, 02:43 PM

I'm going with these two, pretty much agreeing with the board.

Wash -3 -120
Over 44.5

both to win 1 unit.

AAmucked · #28 08-31-2007, 02:47 PM

Wash -3.5 -110

rsigley · #29 08-31-2007, 02:50 PM

betonline has -3 -110
matchbook had -3 -115 but i think its gone now

my only bet for the night unless bodog puts up some nice props

dankhank · #30 08-31-2007, 02:55 PM

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As I said it is from my point of view as I know most will disagree with it and it is specific for this game. There are exceptions to every rule and in this case from my analysis this is one of them. Don't want to argue with anyone as most of time I agree with you all that it is best to go with normal stance. If this is not valid then please help talk through this issue. .

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a) when you ask me to choose between an objective reality and someone's opinion, i will take objectivity every time. a half point on or off the 3 is worth more than 10 cents. this is indisputable due to a preponderance of data over a long period of time. on the other hand, everyone has an opinion about sports, which means on average, an opinion is worth nothing to me. even my own opinion is worth nothing when standing next to objectivity.

b) i don't think the often-seen analysis "if team X wins this game it will probably be in a blowout, so therefore take whatever bet has the least juice and don't worry about half points," has any merit whatsoever in the first week of the season. it might have small merit when there are playoff implications, or resting of players factors, involved. i can't think of any other angle you might be considering, to arrive at your conclusion.