Sick satellite KK spot

[Born2DogBaby]

Top 3 pay. I haven't been opening much lately and should have a tight image. this is the first time saphire 3bet me and sYs has been fairly active although hasnt done anything ridiculous yet. its a spot where i think sYs should be folding AA (?) so when he does this how tight does his range have to be?!?!

PokerStars Game #11689093039: Tournament #58565650, $1000+$50 Hold'em No Limit - Level X (400/800) - 2007/08/25 - 18:14:22 (ET)
Table '58565650 3' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 2: THE__D__RY (30174 in chips)
Seat 3: Born2DogBaby (14732 in chips)
Seat 4: saphire1 (30765 in chips)
Seat 7: sYsonator (51829 in chips)
THE__D__RY: posts the ante 50
Born2DogBaby: posts the ante 50
saphire1: posts the ante 50
sYsonator: posts the ante 50
sYsonator: posts small blind 400
THE__D__RY: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Born2DogBaby [Kc Kd]
Born2DogBaby: raises 1200 to 2000
saphire1: raises 3600 to 5600
sYsonator: raises 6400 to 12000
THE__D__RY: folds
Born2DogBaby:

[4CardStraight]

If we fold this, arent we going to have to double up twice to get a seat, against some of the very best?

If so, taking 20% chance to lock in a seat if we know he has AA doesnt seem all that terrible. There might be a couple percent chance that it isn't AA, and he is just pulling a super squeeze...

I think I would need to see the aces face up to fold KK as the fourth stack by a stretch with 3 seats on the line. This is pretty close, but its certainly possible this is a multi-level thinking issue.

Given these stack sizes and players, arent you at about a 20% chance of getting a seat anyway? And if so, doesnt winning this pot just about lock you in? Maybe we have to take it even if it is aces.

And why arent we just pushing preflop. <20BB is perfectly acceptable to open push, and one of these guys may well put you on hand way worse than what you have and call to bust you. Shrug

[ssnyc]

i don't play a lot of satellites but I'm in the push pre camp...there are so many worse hands that may call and double us that I think we have to play it out...again...I'm not a satellite math expert though I think I need to work on it more

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't play a lot of satellites but I'm in the push pre camp

[/ QUOTE ]

that's terrible, you want someone to do something stupid like bluff shove

well, until this, where you basically say something like "akjfjsdhgfhjsjkhhkjdf" and then pretty much determine how retarded the villain has to be to make a shove +EV

[LearnedfromTV]

as the shortest stack i think you have to stick it in.

but, how likely is saphire to shove something like AK, QQ? Part of your calculation has to be the possibility that you fold and sys busts saph this hand.

I think sys should be folding AA; the fact that he didn't fold indicates he probably isn't aware how tightly he should be playing; i.e. if he makes this raise with any hand, he's probably not making it with AA only.

[Jonathan]

[ QUOTE ]
If we fold this, arent we going to have to double up twice to get a seat, against some of the very best?


[/ QUOTE ]

NO! Absolutely not! Saphire likes his hand. There is a good chance that
he is going to get it all in right now against sYs and that you will win
the seat on this hand.

This looks like an easy fold after the reraise and 4 bet.

[bruce]

I have never folded KK BTF, but folding seems to be closer than most people think. I have no idea who these players are, but assuming they are good, the first raiser should have a very narrow range, and the second raiser really shouldn't be playing any hands, even AA. Given that he 4
bet is he only doing this with AA, KK, or perhaps AK, or because he 3 bet when he should have folded, does that mean he has a more expanded range? I'm not sure. But given that you are short stack and you need to double up I'd probably call. If you fold than the 3 better will probably
fold and you'll be right back where you started minus T2000.

Bruce

[Vetgirig]

Let 'em have it.

4-handed and you got KK - if they have AA - **it happens.

The chance of AA against KK on a 4-handed table are very slim.

And remember you are the desperate shortstack. So you need to double up.

[ASPoker8]

I think this is a really interesting spot...

but I think the discussion thusfar has sucked.

I'll contribute this... Saphire is probably never continuing. It would take AA for him to put more chips in the pot, even if we fold. With that said, can sYs ever not have AA here? I'm really baffled by this spot and I'm leaning towards folding. Seems like sYs has to have AA and Saphire will never continue unless he has AA.

[Hurrrr]

Pukes and folds, but only because it is a satellite. Basically what AS said about their hands.