NBA Overlays - November

[rjp]

Going to go with one thread for the rest of November to keep everything in one easy to find place.

YTD: 9-5-0 (+2.85 units; ROI: 20.36%)

Just one overnight line for now:

New York Knicks +13.5 (-108)

New York last at home to San Antonio by 12 on Monday, but that is an unlikely result. Getting 13.5 points in the NBA will typically provide you with a positive expectation--no special handicapping required. This is one of those situations.

[MyTurn2Raise]

do you use any sort of power index, or is it straight evaluating match-ups, or some combo thereof?

[domer2]

"Getting 13.5 points in the NBA will typically provide you with a positive expectation"

Then why would a book put it up?

[rjp]

[ QUOTE ]
"Getting 13.5 points in the NBA will typically provide you with a positive expectation"

Then why would a book put it up?

[/ QUOTE ]
Because bettors are more likely to wager on the Spurs than on the Knicks.

[rjp]

[ QUOTE ]
do you use any sort of power index, or is it straight evaluating match-ups, or some combo thereof?

[/ QUOTE ]
I use recent team performance to create a sort of power index, if you will, and I subjectively take into account matchups, injuries, tempo, etc.

[rjp]

Seattle SuperSonics / Atlanta Hawks UNDER 201.5 (-102)

These teams aren’t defensive power houses, but they’ve also not been scoring like the Suns, either. I’m sure there will be plenty of money salivating at the OVER, but the reality is that these teams aren’t playing the type of basketball that justifies this high number.

New York Knicks / San Antonio Spurs OVER 195.5 (+100)

The Spurs are capable of posting 100+ on any team that isn’t capable of playing defense, and the Knicks are one of those teams. The Knicks should have no trouble keeping up.

Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5 (-110)
Orlando Magic / Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER 187 (-110)

Orlando hasn’t been all that spectacular, and in their own right neither has Minnesota. At home, however, the T-Wolves figure to post a win often enough to cover this number, playing a low tempo style of ball that keeps the total UNDER this number often enough to prove profitable.

Utah Jazz / Milwaukee Bucks OVER 197 (-110)

Milwaukee’s in a slump right now, but not offensively. They’ve got to be more motivated than the Jazz in this matchup, and they won’t win with strong defense.

Memphis Grizzlies +10.5 (-103)

Phoenix isn’t this good. Simple as that.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

basic maybe dumb question - why do you call these 'overlays'? It's really just a pick that you like, right?

[domer2]

Thanks for the Knicks; trailed you on that one.

[brendanb438]

Curious also about why you call your picks overlays.

[rjp]

YTD: 12-9-0 (+1.66 units; ROI: 7.90%)

Charlotte Bobcats +152

Charlotte will be without Felton in this game, while Denver will be without Martin and possible Nene.

Denver is likely better than their record indicates, but compared to the way Charlotte has played thus far they’re not that much better.

Combine this with the possibility Denver is looking ahead to their upcoming game in Miami, and I put the Nuggets odds of winning this game just slightly better than Charlotte’s. I expect Charlotte to win this game often enough to provide a positive return at this price.

Sacramento Kings -7 (-105)

The Kings have played pretty well at home after staring the season slow. Toronto is a team I don’t expect to win many games on the road this year, and they’ll have a tough time doing so against Sacramento.

Sacramento should win this game often enough to cover 7 points.

Memphis Grizzlies/LA Lakers UNDER 188 (-110)

The Lakers should play a slower tempo game with Memphis, as that’s how the Grizzlies like to play it. The odds for this total are closer to 180.