Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!

[MicroBob]

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They just do what other people have told them is best, be it reporters, other coaches, or whoever.

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They do what they have learned in the game via playing and other coaches. They are mostly following their hunches.

Anything that any reporter has told them or asked them in the past has very little influence. I think you don't quite get how little these coaches think of these guys' opinions or input.

I agree that they aren't familiar with thinking in terms of EV, etc etc. He was just playing a hunch here that to play it safe and go to OT was best and didn't even think about the percentages or the numbers. But his crappy decision had almost nothing to do with reporters imo.

[Phildo]

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Baseball's run fairly optimally, it's not like by perfectly running a team you'll pick up 30 wins a season or that wall street guys would just rape the current sabermetricly inclined front offices when it comes to trades/the draft.

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For all of you that have any doubt please read Baseball between the numbers by Baseball prospectus. It is run highly sub-optimal in terms of base stealing, bunting, batting order, pitching rotation,pinch hitting, closer usage and pretty much every other aspect of the game. If you want to discuss this more pm me, I don't feel like unleashing all my pent up feelings on sports management debacles here. Perhaps I will start a blog.

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i believe most of this but haven't saber guys determined that batting order doesn't matter much at all?

[vhawk01]

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had the ball on about 2 with 18 or so seconds left. They ran a running play to get to the 1 and then called a timeout. They then threw an incomplete pass and there was like 3 seconds left, enough for 1 play.
... but surely your odds of scoring a TD from the 1 are far better than 50/50? Stupid.

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Well, at that point they were 0-2 from the 2/1 yd lines.

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So why didnt the coach realize they were due? Basically he is dumb but not dumb enough, unfortunate.

[kidcolin]

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Dudd's right. Baseball is run fairly optimally; you aren't going to win 10 more games by outlawing sacrifice bunting and stealing. Look at Oakland.

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seriously.. have fun falling short every year because your team can't do the little things.

[MicroBob]

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Baseball's run fairly optimally, it's not like by perfectly running a team you'll pick up 30 wins a season or that wall street guys would just rape the current sabermetricly inclined front offices when it comes to trades/the draft.

[/ QUOTE ]

For all of you that have any doubt please read Baseball between the numbers by Baseball prospectus. It is run highly sub-optimal in terms of base stealing, bunting, batting order, pitching rotation,pinch hitting, closer usage and pretty much every other aspect of the game. If you want to discuss this more pm me, I don't feel like unleashing all my pent up feelings on sports management debacles here. Perhaps I will start a blog.

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From what I have read I believe some significant liberties are taken in some of the assumptions there.
They hate bunting because swinging away works so much better. But swinging away would not work quite as well without the THREAT of bunting. etc etc.

Your theory that a team run by math-geniuses would win THAT many more games is just wrong. Especially since the psychological effects on the players being told what to do by the math-geeks may very well end up hurting them more than helping.

Baseball players aren't robots that you can just program what to do and then let the numbers fall where they may. There's more going on there.

[vhawk01]

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On the year, Arizona has been in 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 situations (similar to what they were in on the last play of regulation) 18 times; they successfully convered 16/18 times.

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Are you suggesting that a 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 from the 1 yard line is the same as a 3rd or 4th and 1 from anywhere else on the field?

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If you are the Minnesota Vikings or maybe like the Miami Dolphins or a few other teams, pretty much yeah. If you have Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, pretty much no.

But even still, they were 16/18, so discount that as much as you think is appropriate, its still a lot better than a coinflip.

[MicroBob]

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Baseball's run fairly optimally, it's not like by perfectly running a team you'll pick up 30 wins a season or that wall street guys would just rape the current sabermetricly inclined front offices when it comes to trades/the draft.

[/ QUOTE ]

For all of you that have any doubt please read Baseball between the numbers by Baseball prospectus. It is run highly sub-optimal in terms of base stealing, bunting, batting order, pitching rotation,pinch hitting, closer usage and pretty much every other aspect of the game. If you want to discuss this more pm me, I don't feel like unleashing all my pent up feelings on sports management debacles here. Perhaps I will start a blog.

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i believe most of this but haven't saber guys determined that batting order doesn't matter much at all?

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tell that to the pitchers trying to grind their way through the 3-4-5 batters of a tough line-up.
Tell that to a batter who gets all these great pitches to look at because of the guys hitting behind him....or to the guy who never gets anything good to swing at because the guy behind him is lousy or slumping.

As I mentioned, there's a lot of stuff going on then just the numbers. "Player A hits .320 and Player B hits .210...but if you reversed their order in the lineup and assume they continue hitting at those clips then the team's run-production will stay the same!!"

Ummmm, who says they will continue hitting at those clips if you switched them in the line-up? Pitchers will be approaching them differently now and they will be seeing different looks and situations. So making the assumption that their average, etc will remain the same is just plain wrong I believe.

[vhawk01]

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They just do what other people have told them is best, be it reporters, other coaches, or whoever.

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They do what they have learned in the game via playing and other coaches. They are mostly following their hunches.

Anything that any reporter has told them or asked them in the past has very little influence. I think you don't quite get how little these coaches think of these guys' opinions or input.

I agree that they aren't familiar with thinking in terms of EV, etc etc. He was just playing a hunch here that to play it safe and go to OT was best and didn't even think about the percentages or the numbers. But his crappy decision had almost nothing to do with reporters imo.

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Right, but you are neglecting where the coaches who teach the coaches learned things. Its a constant pressure that impacts their decision making. "Whenever I make this kind of decision I am mildly compensated when it goes well and HUGELY criticized when it doesnt. Whenever I make this other kind of decision, the opposite happens." Its a subconscious effect but its built up through generations of coaches and systems for EXACTLY the reasons you talked about here. None of these guys learn a fresh set of ideas and then get pressure from the media and fans and front office. They learn a set of ideas that have THEMSELVES been a product of pressure from media, fans and front office and THEN they add in even more pressure.

[MicroBob]

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If you are the Minnesota Vikings or maybe like the Miami Dolphins or a few other teams, pretty much yeah.

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no way.
3rd and 1 especially or even 4th and 1 from the 50 is different than from the 1 no matter what team it is.

[vhawk01]

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If you are the Minnesota Vikings or maybe like the Miami Dolphins or a few other teams, pretty much yeah.

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no way.
3rd and 1 especially or even 4th and 1 from the 50 is different than from the 1 no matter what team it is.

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Ugh, of course its different. Now show me how its IMPORTANTLY different. The Vikings are pretty much never, ever, ever running some kind of play action or weirdo pass play. They are lining up and running it. Is it POSSIBLE they will make use of the extra 40 yards? Sure. But its such a tiny chance it doesnt impact the conversion percentage in any meaningful way.

At least thats my opinion. I see absolutely no reason to think that it is MATERIALLY different where on the field teams like the Vikings are running their 4th and 1's.