ROI in Heads up Sit and go

[jay_shark]

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After 400 games , you can only determine that you're likely to be within 5 % of your true win-rate . So if you've won 60% , then your true win rate is anywhere from 55% to 65% .

If you want to be within 3% of your true win-rate , then you would need about 1,111 games . So if after 1111 games , your sample win-rate is 60% , then your true win-rate is anywhere from 57% to 63% .

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Isn't it true that the higher your winrate the less sample you need to accurately know your true winrate?

Your statement above does not seem to account for that.

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Chicago , I'm surprised you didn't know this .

[ChicagoRy]

Yea I guess I confused the two.

I don't put a ton of effort into figuring out what my ROI could be if I'm running good/bad, I'm more into looking at the hard stats and fluctuations in my play in relation to my street by street stats and buyin levels.

Thanks for clearing that up though.

[SwingVelvet]

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In laymen's terms :
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Win-rate= [buy-in* Roi + buy-in ]/2
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thanks for the response but i don't think your winrate formula works. I'm running at 10% in the 88 buyins, I just did the math plugging (88*10%+88)/2 and i get 48.4
that means i am losing more than winning which doesn make sense since i'm up 1.3k

????

[jay_shark]

I expressed 1 buy-in as 1.05 units.

This is true as long as the rake is 5% .

[1.05* 10% + 1.05]/2 = 0.5775 or 57.75%

[jay_shark]

The formula can be expressed as :

Win-rate = [1.05*Roi + 1.05]/2
Win-rate = .525*Roi + 0.525

So an ROI of 20% corresponds to a win-rate of 63% .