The basis for a perfect roulette system

grinch24 · #1 10-02-2006, 05:38 PM

Hello everyone!
I know it's impossible to find a system that will always win, but here is an idea of a system that actually might be fruitfull. Hope someone has enough time and patience to implement it.
First of all, there is one argument against those who believe that the house advantage cannot be overcome - house advantage relates to the NUMBER OF WINNING SPINS HOUSE HAS OVER THE PLAYER, and not the money you put in a game. This means that the house wins approximatelly 52.5 times in a 100 spins series, while the player has 47.5 wins. If player wins 1.5 chip each time, and loses 1 chip when the house wins, who's ahead?
That is one thing! The other relates to odds. It is very common opinion that each spin represents an isolated event, and each time you bet on red you have around 47.5% of chance for winning. However, what is the probability of the tenth red in a row? It is actually simple to calculate:
0.475x0.475x0.475x0.475 (and so on... 10 times...)=0.0007 (0.07%). This probability is rather low, but it's not impossible.
Ok, now back to the system proposal. As you probably know by now, it is very rare (if not impossible) to have a streak of more than 25 different numbers. Hence the system basis - simply follow last numbers that came out, and sooner or later you'll hit a winner.
let's here what you have to say about it...

WhiteWolf · #2 10-02-2006, 06:01 PM

Lame gimmick account, lame troll post.

Alexisonfyre · #3 10-02-2006, 06:08 PM

I have a far better solution. Don't play. I should come out ahead vs. your strategy after a million of rolls.

grinch24 · #4 10-02-2006, 06:17 PM

Maybe you should and maybe not. Do you play some other game then? How about a million poker hands? do you know of anyone actually playing million rolls?

repulse · #5 10-02-2006, 08:06 PM

I only read your subject and not the content of your post, but here's what I'm guessing your basis is:

1) An infinite bankroll
2) A casino with no table limits
3) A roulette game that plays games infinitely fast
4) a hell of a lot of marijuana

grinch24 · #6 10-03-2006, 01:25 AM

Actually no (except maybe the last item). You have 12 streets on a roulette table, plus the 0. What is the probability of hitting 10 streets and a 0 in a row (the sequence would be like 0,2,5,8,11,14,17,20 etc...). Hope you got the picture. You can narrow this to sixlines, or eventually broaden up to squads or even splits. I'm not saying it's impossible to lose this way, but certainly you can find the satisfying win/loss ratio somewhere in the middle. Plus - this is just an idea people!!!

Shroomy · #7 10-03-2006, 10:29 AM

Thorpe found the only way know to beat roulette aroud the same time he found the only realistic way to beat black jack (and still the basis for any way to beat blackjack)

T50_Omaha8 · #8 10-03-2006, 03:53 PM

Each spin of the roulette wheel in an independent event AND every possible configuration of betting combinations around the roulette wheel has a negative expected value for each spin AND the total expected value of multiple independent events equals the expected value of each event combined, THEREFORE there exists no betting strategy in roulette that will have a long run positive expectation.

Each spin has a negative EV, call it p, thus 2 spins has EV 2p, 3 spins has expected value 3p, and so on. Induce to infinity.

Ocho · #9 10-03-2006, 05:18 PM

Where do you play cards at? Can I come to a home game?

grinch24 · #10 10-03-2006, 06:19 PM

Well, just one question to all of the people who found time to mock up an idea - do you play any other casino game? Do you think you got better odds there?
Wait... I know the answer! You play poker, right? Power up your table selection software and look for some suckers out there... I don't suppose you think that one day that sucker will be you?
Well, enough about that... For all those trolling about roulette and odds and 'there's no way to overcome negative expectations' and that sort of crap - READ THE F****G POST! If I wanted a sermon, I'd go to church!
Back to the thread - if you have some knowledge of Excel, you know that Excel has built in Random Number Generator (easier way - load Analysis Tool Pack from Tools-->Addins, you'll get access to the function RANDBETWEEN). Make a sheet with desired number of simulated spins (and don't start about the weaknesses of Excel's RNG...) and then simply with IF function check how many times do you have a sequence of 20 completely different numbers. Then come back and report. I'd like to hear the results. I did the test on 30000 rows and got only one negative (22 diferent in a row).