3 bet pot bluff

[Profish2285]

Villain is a decent tag with whom I have some history. I have 3 bet him light quite a few times but I dont think he has actually seen my hand go to showdown ever. I have a feeling he is catching on though as I cant possibly have aces that many times from his perspective. He runs at 19/14/2.9. His attempt to steal is around 29 I think. I thought this could work a decent amount as he could definitely be floating this flop with some pocket pairs. Of course he could also be floating with AK or KQ, which makes it somewhat tricky I guess. What does everyone think? The thing is, this is the exact line I would take with AK, TT, and AA and I have a feeling he knows that as well.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG ($23.10)
MP ($95.15)
<font color="#C00000">CO ($53.55)</font>
Button ($86.20)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($49)</font>
BB ($88.65)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $1.75</font>, Button calls $1.75, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8.75</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $6.75, Button folds.

Flop: ($19.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $12</font>, CO calls $12.

Turn: ($43.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $28.5 (All-In)</font>

[SlowRoll]

I'm not a fan of this in generel, but it is one of the better cards to try it on.

[Profish2285]

If youre not a fan then why? I have 4k hands on him so the stats are accurate, the villain is the right one to do it to, and the board is good I think.

[matrix]

as long as this is the exact line you'd play with AA/KK/AK it's all good.

BUT getting called down here (and obv you got called) isn't all that bad provided you readjust aferwards and only 3bet with premiums as having showndown air here you will be facing 4bets a lot more often (or you should do) when you 3bet. Also the only way you can have a set here pretty much is a turned KK.

Having said all that you get a 2d barrel called here much more often than if you just push the flop cos the pot odds are sweet and your line can easily be JJ QQ or a bluff.

[ QUOTE ]
I have 3 bet him light quite a few times but I dont think he has actually seen my hand go to showdown ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

also given that - and given that he called a flop bet and didn't raise (a call there I think is stronger than a raise) it might be a good plan to c/f this turn as this line doesn't look like a float I think AK shouldn't call the flop (recent table history etc etc depending) so he has QQ+ here imo.

I think that if you are going to 3bet light (and it sounds like you do) - then sometimes you gotta follow through and stack off in order to get action the times you do have a top hand, tho sparingly and you need to note this and readjust afterwards for a little while.

[SlowRoll]

[ QUOTE ]
If youre not a fan then why? I have 4k hands on him so the stats are accurate, the villain is the right one to do it to, and the board is good I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

When he calls the flop, he is getting good odds on the turn. He almost put in ½ his stack, and i my opinion, people don't float flops light in 3-bet pots.

But as i said, this is definetly on of the better cards to try and pull this off.

[Profish2285]

In general people dont float light, but I gotta say both of you guys are wrong in that he didnt have JJ/TT/QQ. I do agree with you matrix though about stacking off. I obviously lost the hand, but I think the metagame advantage I gained is huge now. I play with this guy on a regular basis and I doubt he is going to forget this. I think there are two ways I can have a set here though, as I play TT very similar to this as well, especially against a TAG with an attempt to steal that gets close to 30.

haven`t read replies. This could work. You will fold out JJ-QQ and get called by TT and AA, I doubt KK is in his range.

If I was villain and play TT-QQ like this I would probably raise the flop with JJ-QQ to avoid you from drawing with AK.