What are the odds

[BKK Bang]

Whenever someone talks about how a poker site is rigged, I usually laugh to myself, because it typically comes after a bad beat that is not that uncommon, or (much more often) the person played the hand poorly and lost within a normal deviation range. I always think, oh yeah, a multi-million dollar corporation whose reputation is everything is doing its best to get an extra 20 cents of rake from you.

However, this last hand is just driving me nuts which happened in a small $6 9-man turbo NLHE SnG on PokerStars. What are the odds.

On about the 10th hand, seat 4, I pick up QQ, I raise 30 to 90. Seat 8 and small blind call.

Flop
Q 4 2 (suits didnt come into play, but their were two of 1 suit)

Small blind bets 200, I raise to 450, seat 8 goes all in, and small blind calls. What could these people have? I thought, it is only a $6 SnG, but come on. I figured the nut flush draw has to be in there. Well I was wrong. All three of us had sets.

In the end, the set of 2s won by making quads.

Q1: What are the odds that 3 players see a flop and all 3 hit sets?
Q2: What are the odds with 3 players with sets, that 1 will improve to quads?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Q1: What are the odds that 3 players see a flop and all 3 hit sets?

Not sure, but I've seen it happen more than once live.

Q2: What are the odds with 3 players with sets, that 1 will improve to quads?

About the same as any 3-outer with 2 cards to come. In this case, about 7:1 since we know there are three sets, there are only 43 unseen cards on the flop.

[Gonso]

In the first question, if you're assuming all three players are starting out with pocket pairs, there are only 8 possible flops out about 91k possibilities. Which works out to 1 in 11,385 if I didn't make a mistake.

Once you get that far, yeah it's a 3 outer for someone to quad up which isn't a big deal statistically.

As far as being rigged, this would be a pretty rediculous way to go about doing it. That, and it's a $6 SNG. An oddity, but it won't be the last time you see this if you play enough poker. There are so many bizarre things that can happen, you're going to see a few over time.

[BKK Bang]

[ QUOTE ]
As far as being rigged, this would be a pretty rediculous way to go about doing it. That, and it's a $6 SNG.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, I am not suggesting that it is rigged. I was just thinking if one of the conspiracy theorist were in the hand, it would be definitive proof for them.

I guessed off the top of my head that it was over 1 in 10,000. Add to that, the chances of 3 people holding pocket pairs pre-flop, and making it to the flop. The odds get even higher. But, you play enough poker, everything is bound to happen eventually. I have been playing for 5 years and never seen this, much less have it happen to me.

Thanks for the stats

[Gonso]

not quite the same thing, but here's an odd (televised) hand where 5 players had pairs, including AA, KK, and QQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNz-D...ed&search=

[BKK Bang]

[ QUOTE ]
not quite the same thing, but here's an odd (televised) hand where 5 players had pairs, including AA, KK, and QQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNz-D...ed&search=

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow! amazing hand. I just feel bad for the poor sap who folded his Ks preflop.

[Albert Moulton]

Q1: I've seen more than one live game with AA vs KK vs QQ preflop. I've seen set over set often. I haven't seen 3 sets yet on the same flop yet, but just because it's rare doesn't mean that it won't happen to you in a fair game. It's just a matter of time. Even Doyle Brunson in SSI wrote about a hand like J33 where the players had JJ vs KQs. The turn was a 3 and the river a 3, and the KQ guy won a huge pot with quad 3s, K-kicker.

Q2: I've seen set over set where the lower set made quads on the turn. I know about that quads hand because I won over $1K with it when my set of 2s turned into quads on the turn vs another guy's flopped set of 4s at a 5/5 NL game.

I'm sure the odds are low, but just because it is rare, doesn't mean you aren't going to see it.