QQ from upfront early in Warmup...Is this ok?

[NYWalker]

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Sidenote: I'm really amazed that there are people on here who think that required implied odds for set-mining are equal to the base odds of hitting a set. This is a ginormous humongtic leak, way way larger than the subtle leak for which I am proposing a solution.

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Can you explain to me the difference between the two?

I'm sorry I haven't read thru the entire thread. Maybe you had said that before, but I'd appreciate if you can explain to me (again, if you had done so).

(BTW, I've been reading about poker computation at 2p2's probability forum and this site, http://www.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/

However,you brought up something different and new.

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you aren't going to stack someone every time you hit your set. you have to account for boards that will slow down your opponent and for the rare but very costly set over set situation. also you might lose to a flush or straight.

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This is very true. I encountered it twice this past weekend at Caesars LV $2K event.

I'm not sure what's the arguments here, I'll go thru the posts and try to understand Boltastar's point. But, we also have other situations that get us more than 7.5x return, sometimes even >> 20x, when we have a set.

I think calculating implied pot-odd for/against set-mining is still one of the right tools for deep stack sitatuations like OP's hand.

[baltostar]

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i actually think your latest post is the most coherent you've made, but your whole system seems to be in place to prevent you from [censored] up, and like requin said, better players dont need these guidelines.

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Or so they like to believe ...

I stand by my analysis that there are pervasive persistent thought patterns on these boards that do not properly account for relative opportunities, especially in relation to stack utility risk.

[kleath]

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Responding to a bunch of different posts:

If you have some other way to adjust for this problem, more power to you. What works for me when deciding when to play across events is to consider total chip outlay in relation to max payoff.

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First off I'll start by saying that people who say baltostar is making false statements arent completely right.

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But he IS making completely false statements, they have some relevance in a different context but in regards to the actual thread he is completely wrong because he can't use extremely basic logical processes to follow his own concepts. Yes, when you are figuring implied odds on any given action where you are not closing the action you have to account for the possibility of getting raised, if you are closing the action however that is completely irrelevant, the only relevant factors are what the price is to call and what our expectation is if we hit, current pot odds absolutely figure into that.

[Todd Terry]

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The "implied odds", which is really the implied expectation, are what you expect to win if you hit, multiplied by the percentage that you hit. It's really that simple. And flopping a set or better is 7.5:1...


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Does this mean if villain had you covered you would call mostly any amount as long as there were 7.5:1 ratio of what you can win and how much it is to call? This can't be right.

I am trying to develop a shorter hand way of figuring out when to call with small pairs for set odds (I only play live so don't fiddle w/numbers as much as I should). How does your stack and villain's play come into this equations (I realize with smaller stacks and w/a villain that won't stack off w/1 pair calling is less desirable, but how do you account for them mathmatically?).

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The answer to your question is no. You have to make an assessment of "what you expect to win", not "what you can win", which is an assessment of many factors, including the depth of the stacks, the strength of your opponent's hand and his ability to get away from a big hand. I don't believe hard-and-fast rules are achievable given the number of variables involved. Obviously, if you cannot win better than 7.5x your risk, you should not call for the sole purpose of flopping a set. And anything close to 7.5x undoubtedly isn't worth it either. In Shannon's hand, the Villain raised the UTG raiser, which indicates that he has a very big hand, which signals that he's probably willing to put a lot more chips in the pot postflop. Set mining against people who have made a standard postflop raise from middle or late position is almost invariably a mistake, since there's no reason to think their hand is very strong. Of course, there are often many reasons to call with a pair other than just set mining.

Here are two examples from the Caesar's $10K event I just busted out of which show my thought process in two set-mining hands. First, blinds 50/100, very laggy player raises UTG to 250, UTG+2 calls 250, MP1 who's been very active raises to 1250 (this shows he has a big hand since he's putting in a 3bet of a UTG raise, albeit from a laggy player, with many people yet to act behind him), CO calls 1250, Button calls 1250, I look down at 22 in the SB. Since UTG is super laggy in opening but has never 4bet, I don't give him credit for much of a hand and I'm not very worried that he's going to reraise everyone. I figure if I call, the pot will be so big that UTG and UTG+2 will call as well. At that point, the pot will have 7600 in it. Someone is going to have to bet at least 3-4K into a pot that big to try to take it down, so I figure the minimum I will win if I flop a set is 9500 (10600-1250) or so, and there's a good chance of winning a lot more since MP1 has a hand he might not be able to fold. Everyone has at least 13K to start the hand. So I called, UTG and UTG+2 did not, which means I was overly optimistic. Flop: K Q 2, two spades, I checked, checked around to CO who bet 2K, I moved all in for about 12K more, everyone folded, CO thought forever and made a terrible call with AK, I doubled up.

Second example: 100/200, loose EP limps, loose MP limps, button who has about 27K raises to 1000, I look down at 55 in the BB with 25K. This was again a situation where I thought the two limpers would follow if I called, since they had done so in similar situations, which would create a big bet on the flop, so I called. Neither limper had limp/reraised all day, so I wasn't worried about that. Additionally, the Button had shown a tendency to stick with big hands rather than folding them, which is what you want. The 2 limpers both folded, so much for my analysis, making me overly optimistically wrong again. Flop: J 5 3, two hearts. I check, Button bets 1500, I raise to 4500, he raises to 12K, I move allin, he instacalls and turns over JJ. GG me.

I think the preflop call in the second hand is marginal, the one in the first hand is the type of call I think you have to make in playing to win.

[PrayingMantis]

OP: a hand.

balto: you should do X, because 2+2=5

all: no, you're wrong, it's not 5.

balto: yes it is.

all: no it's not.

balto: well, you see, 1+1=2 and 2+2=5 so you should do X

all: 1+1=2 is not relevant and 2+2=5 is wrong.

balto: 1+1=2 is relevant, blah blah blah

all: no it is not

balto: sure it is, and here's why: blah blah blah

someone: balto is actually right about 1+1=2

balto: of course, and that's why you should do X

all: 1+1=2 is not relevant to anything here at all, and 2+2=5 is wrong

balto: well, as you see now, 1+1=2 is true. I was right after all

[Exitonly]

That was awesome.

[NHFunkii]

perfect.

[Ansky]

god that is perfect

[DJ Pattiecake]

i don't want to read through 10 pages of baltostar, perma-IP ban please.

My take on the hand however, goes as follows.

Against an unknown i would put him on 1010+, Aks, ako and maybe? AQs(a pretty bad hand for you to play a flop with)

It is a tough spot b/c you will stack off to AA and KK a lot when you flop an overpair. You will still lose to JJ and 1010 (assuming villain is a liberal C-bettor like most players) pretty often when the flop comes Axx Kxx AKx. If he has JJ or 1010 or KK you will not get good value when the flop comes AQx. Set over set is a null value b/c i am assuming he is reraising w 1010+ and you are the middle child.

If you are an online pro with unlimited buyins and 8 tables running, i recommed reraising pre or calling and playing a flop OOP. If you are Phil Hellmuth (which i think you very well could be against a random warmup field) then i recommend folding because this hand is pretty close to evenEV for a lot of chips.

[MLG]

pm,
that was amazing.