FTP 5/10, river donk against a steal??

[bennyhana]

I did this today, waddythink?:

button has tag stats, but only after 75 hands. 18/11/2.5.

preflop folders will just have to get over it, cause i called. On the flop, I wanted to feel him out a bit,
but wasn't ready to fold just yet. I figured I still had 4 outs if he was Tenless, and if he had AT or something so be it.

The turn was thin, but there was still a chance I had the best hand.

River??? I'm obviously folding to a raise, but will a tight player fold enough to make this worthwhile?
Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $5/$10
7 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (7 players) HERO is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
4 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises</font>, SB folds, HERO calls <font color="#aaaaaa">(3.5:1)</font>.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4.5SB, 2 players)
HERO checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">HERO raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button 3-bets</font>, HERO calls <font color="#aaaaaa">(10.5:1)</font>.

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5.25BB, 2 players)
HERO checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets</font>, HERO calls <font color="#aaaaaa">(6.25:1)</font>.

River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7.25BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">HERO bets</font>

[ncboiler]

Hero likes his hand but it is hard to put him on a T because if he did have a T he would more than likely call your flop check raise and then hit you on the turn. I think if he had A/K he would check the turn fearing a re-raise but he bet...still likes his hand. If he had checked the turn its an easy bet but I don't think you are good here one out of seven times.

[BobbyShaftoe]

[ QUOTE ]
I did this today, waddythink?:

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you've gone and frightened them.

[bennyhana]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I did this today, waddythink?:

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you've gone and frightened them.

[/ QUOTE ]

i guess.

hey mods, wanna move this to the micro forum for me, or should i x post it there?

nevermind, i'll just post it there

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
button has tag stats, but only after 75 hands. 18/11/2.5.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you click his name and check his att. to steal stat? I've been seeing a lot of guys with good TAG stats recently that have no idea how to steal, and if he was one of those I'm bailing PF, even after a small sample. (I'm not saying, "fold preflop," beni, I'm just saying do a little more homework.)

Beyond that, I think you overplayed postflop. This looks an awful lot like an overpair to me, giving you only 2 outs on the turn, and I don't think a TAG is folding an overpair on the river to a single bet.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I did this today, waddythink?:

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you've gone and frightened them.

[/ QUOTE ]

i guess.

hey mods, wanna move this to the micro forum for me, or should i x post it there?

nevermind, i'll just post it there


[/ QUOTE ]

Stop backsliding.

[bennyhana]

[ QUOTE ]
Did you click his name and check his att. to steal stat? I've been seeing a lot of guys with good TAG stats recently that have no idea how to steal, and if he was one of those I'm bailing PF, even after a small sample. (I'm not saying, "fold preflop," beni, I'm just saying do a little more homework.)

[/ QUOTE ]

yes I did check that. I remember it being around 60%, like 2/3 or something similar. I actually put those stats on my hud today. I didn't get the feel from him that he was 'that' tight, if you know what I mean, more like taking advantage of situations, than ABC poker.

[Ignignokt]

[ QUOTE ]
Stop backsliding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah! Former micros crew in tha SS hizzle fo' shizzle! Whatever that means!

beni - a read here might be good. Has he overplayed overs?

If so, the flop action may very well be of the "you ain't got nothin'" variety, but I can't be sure what the action represents. And no, he isn't folding anything that beats you.

I'd mayyybe play it like this exactly once, and then when you actually have the goods, play it like this again. (Yes, that means just calling his button raise with TT-AA.)

[bennyhana]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd mayyybe play it like this exactly once, and then when you actually have the goods, play it like this again. (Yes, that means just calling his button raise with TT-AA.)


[/ QUOTE ]

I like this. good idea.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Did you click his name and check his att. to steal stat? I've been seeing a lot of guys with good TAG stats recently that have no idea how to steal, and if he was one of those I'm bailing PF, even after a small sample. (I'm not saying, "fold preflop," beni, I'm just saying do a little more homework.)

[/ QUOTE ]

yes I did check that. I remember it being around 60%, like 2/3 or something similar. I actually put those stats on my hud today. I didn't get the feel from him that he was 'that' tight, if you know what I mean, more like taking advantage of situations, than ABC poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gotcha. I've actually gotten pretty adept at finding a pfr'd hand in a small sample like this in under 10 seconds, and figuring out what he did. (If the hand doesn't show up, then in a case like this I'll be aggro because he folds his missed steal attempts.) This being the case, I don't mind the flop raise, but once he 3-bets and leads the turn, I'm going to get out without a more solid read that somebody else pays for. 3.5:1 just isn't good enough, here.

I like Ig's idea, too, provided you think you're going to be at the table for a while, and he's not leaving, either.