3/6 Thin river value bet

[AAismyfriend]

Villain is a loose donk running at like 41/21. I figure his most likely holding on river is a mid PP, but he can probably show up with a 5 here as well. Who likes this? Who checks and why?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $3/$6 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $961.10
BB: $1,134.10
UTG: $625.80
MP: $628.20
CO: $650.75
Hero (BTN): $795.45

Preflop: Hero is dealt 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $21.00</font>, SB calls $18.00, BB folds

Flop: ($48) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $36.00</font>, SB calls $36.00

Turn: ($120) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $89.00</font>, SB calls $89.00

River: ($298) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $168.00</font>

[freeucm]

I think id check behind only hand that calls us here is probably a10 if real loose or a hand that has us beat aj jq j10 a5 k5. Why reopen river with 99 here, you've already fire 2 bets into a scary board with two overs.

[AAismyfriend]

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I think id check behind only hand that calls us here is probably a10 if real loose or a hand that has us beat aj jq j10 a5 k5. Why reopen river with 99 here, you've already fire 2 bets into a scary board with two overs.

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Yea I wouldn't rule AT out. The only reason I'm betting is because I think he's bad enough to call me here with a worse PP. I also think I am good here more often than not, but obviously not everytime.

[duh]

can he ever have naked nut flush draw?

Not a terrible bet.

Basically the more ace high hands I can put into his range, the more likely I am to bet.

I don't like this bet if he's always folding ace high though, cause u only beat 3 other hands.

[Montezuma21]

i like it a lot. very small point: i'd bet exactly half pot though. it just seems to get looked up a lot more than a slightly &gt; than 1/2PSB.

[FionnMac]

id bet less on river, if he's passive.

[catcher193]

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id bet less on river

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[FireStorm]

River bet seems a bit too big to guarantee an A high or 66 calldown. Even beyond this, I'm not sure I'd bother to bet the river here, too many ways for you to be beat.

[Nielsio]

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id bet less on river

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