Is Raising on the River with nutflush on paired board -EV

[vandalay]

Here is the hand.

Several hours into your session. tight person raises 4X (800) from EP, called by a semi-loose person, Im on the button with A5 of clubs. (2700 in pot)

Flop Kc, 5(red), 4(spade). check check to me, I bet 1700 pot get called by the loose player, (6100) in pot
turn - 9c - giving me flush draw and low pair. check, check
River is a 4(clubs) giving me a backdoor nut flush.

He bets the 5000, with 20k behind him. I have ~20k as well.

Is raising here -EV?
What hands can you put him on?
What hands can he call a reraise with?
If you do reraise, how much?
If you reraise less than Allin, do you fold to a new reraise (raise to 13k, leaving you 8k behind)

of course, I reraised with my backdoor hand and lost, but that's not the question. I was just thinking (now), that my raise was -EV as there are very few hands he can call with.

AK and a lower flush are the hands he can call with and I win.

[Cornell Fiji]

without any reads this is an easy raise.

It is super rare that someone will slowplay a set or bottom two on both the flop and the turn so you are ahead 99% of the time here. Because of this, it does not matter what he will call with because you are never behind (yes, I am ignoring the fact that, from the tone of your post, you probably lost this hand when it was actually played). The most likely hand that beats you is probably 99 but there is obviously absolutely no reason from the action going into the river that 99 should make up any substantial portion of his range.

Without reads I don't know what he will call with but it is probably AK, KQ, K9s, A4 if you make it 12,500 and AK, K9, A4 if you shove.

You absolutely can not fold to a rereraise but you should get nervous at that point. I would probablhy shove the river.

[Dunkman]

Why the hell are you calling a tight player PF with A5...I don't understand. And you hit the miracle hand to justify your call, the nut flush, and now you want to get away from it....shove the river and pray he thinks it's a bluff.

[Fiksdal]

shove! they call with so much worse! And a lot they have lower flushes here too btw.

[Pokerpaulie]

Maybe I am wrong but, 1) I don't think I would have put my money in with A 5 clubs against a tight player, but depending on circumstances you did. so that brings us to the Flop 2) a check call is a pretty strong play, especially from a loose player(which should indicate strength, like ak or 55) 3)you should have never bet in position after flop but you did 4) after the turn giving you nut flush draw, is when you should have bet, giving you the info you need on river 5)after you hit nut flush and he bets out, I think calling is your only option, raiseing only gives a player a chance to make more money when a pair is on board, A call here stops the action and saves you money if you are beat.

Did he have a set of 5's on flop???

[vandalay]

1) Not to defend the call, but I was on the button and EP-Tight was an easy read. If he had AK he would have bet. The loose player could have anything and I didnt mind betting for him.
2) Agree, he was loose which could have been AK or KQ. Either way I was beat and shut down.
3) Iffy... would have worked if he had 6's and not a set of 5's
4) I knew I was still beat at the point, and figured he would call, thus no bet.
5) And that is my question. Is raising here -EV?

This situation comes up all the time, in cash and tourney's and it got me thinking in medium events or cash games against solid (not fish, not pro) players raising here worthwhile.

I could care less that I lost the hand, but am troubled by my raise. Same situation happens in the future, I will raise again, but when I raise, is it -EV?

hah... thanks guys

[Crash0veride]

All the hands that beat you aren't played in a way that makes sense by villain at all, VERY VERY VERY easy shove. Also back door flush very hard to detect the way the hand played, so shove here looks a lot like a bluff and I wouldn't be surprised if hero calls and shows some pairs and alot of K hands.

[Cornell Fiji]

[ QUOTE ]
1) Not to defend the call, but I was on the button and EP-Tight was an easy read. If he had AK he would have bet. The loose player could have anything and I didnt mind betting for him.
2) Agree, he was loose which could have been AK or KQ. Either way I was beat and shut down.
3) Iffy... would have worked if he had 6's and not a set of 5's
4) I knew I was still beat at the point, and figured he would call, thus no bet.
5) And that is my question. Is raising here -EV?

This situation comes up all the time, in cash and tourney's and it got me thinking in medium events or cash games against solid (not fish, not pro) players raising here worthwhile.

I could care less that I lost the hand, but am troubled by my raise. Same situation happens in the future, I will raise again, but when I raise, is it -EV?

hah... thanks guys

[/ QUOTE ]


Stop being so [censored] results oriented. This is one of the easiest [censored] value raises ever. STOP BEING RESULTS ORIENTED.

Does that make it easier to understand?

[tormos]

I agree with you that he is almost always ahead here from the way the hand has been played out. I dislike the raise to 12.5k because a push will look weaker in this spot. I guess I would 60% of the times push here and 40% call. A buy-in amount and reads on your opponent can make some slight differences.