OT: Official POG Baseball Postseason thread

[lastchance]

Basically, except Hanley Ramirez is as terrible as Jeter is in the SS (except I have no idea why that is).

I was just arguing why Jeter sucking at D passes the smell test. He just doesn't get to enough balls.

[fmxda]

[ QUOTE ]
Jeter doesn't range to his left.

And yes, in all likelihood, Yanks will be fine and make the crapshoot that is the MLB playoffs again, where they will have a 12.5% chance to win the WS.

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Pretty funny how a team could win 26 of these elimination best of 7 coinflips over the years, even if the odds were 25% in your favor before

[lastchance]

It's approximate, the Yankees have made the playoffs a lot, and the difference between the best team and the second best team was a lot bigger back then.

And yes, 25% >>> 12.5%.

[wdcbooks]

Fmxda - That is a really good analysis, I only disagree with you about Rivera, who I think is declining rather quickly. I also am not sold on Wang as an ace pitcher and would be surprised if he improved considerably next year. He actually reminds me a bit of Derek Lowe.

As to Jeter, I may hate the Yankees, but I am generally a realist when it comes to players on both teams I like and ones I don't. Jeter's defense doesn't make him a bad shortstop. I would still take him over almost all other shortstops in the league. I just think his offense and aura masks his mediocre and declining defensive abilities.

[metsandfinsfan]

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Also, if the stats/articles say that Jeter is the worst fielding SS in the majors over the last 8 years (your words, not mine, plus I'm too lazy to read the articles)... then they're full of [censored]. Because there's no way the absolute worst SS in baseball has made some of the plays that Jeter has. It simply doesn't pass the smell test.


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he has the worst range of any shortstop, and has made some amazing plays. But he has no range. your yankee eyes are blind to that

a stat can be flawed .. but the fact that he comes in dead last in it year after year has merit. He is an extremely overated shortstop with no range who makes the occassional great play.

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Players with a signficant positive change in expected production for the Yankees:
Cabrera, Cano, Wang, Chamberlain, Hughes, Kennedy


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I doubt Wang improves, in fact he may have possibly overacheived. Chamberlain Hughes Kennedy over a full year should be good. And Melky is what he is sorry buddy. And Cano is better than i thought he was, but no reason to think he will improve either.

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Players with a significant negative delta of expected production for the Yankees:
Mussina, Damon, Giambi


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i dont know if moose can get any worse than he was

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Likely minor declines for:
Rivera, Vizcaino, Jeter, Posada, Abreu, Matsui


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Posada had a career year at his age so a major decline is expected.
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Players who will probably not be on the 08 Yankees:
Clemens


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if george wants him here he will be here. period.
if george fires torre, this increases the chance that posada wont as well

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Replacing Igawa/Clemens and the "Chase Clippard" spot (where we had untested AAA guys pitching for over half the season) with Kennedy, Hughes and Chamberlain is a huge upgrade--easily 8-10 wins in a season, even after accounting for Mussina's decline. Wang having another year under his belt and Pettite turning one year older are a wash IMO.

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many young pitchers struggle their 2nd and 3rd seasons, so expecting all 3 to be great next year is nuts. i think they leave chamberlin in the pen as the heir apparant to rivera

[fmxda]

[ QUOTE ]
Fmxda - That is a really good analysis, I only disagree with you about Rivera, who I think is declining rather quickly. I also am not sold on Wang as an ace pitcher and would be surprised if he improved considerably next year. He actually reminds me a bit of Derek Lowe.

As to Jeter, I may hate the Yankees, but I am generally a realist when it comes to players on both teams I like and ones I don't. Jeter's defense doesn't make him a bad shortstop. I would still take him over almost all other shortstops in the league. I just think his offense and aura masks his mediocre and declining defensive abilities.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't know about Rivera, just his age should be a pretty big warning sign that a big dropoff is coming, but if you look at his results, his cutter is still hitting mid 90's several times an outing and a lot of hitters still look incredibly foolish against him. As long as he still has his amazing movement and good zip I don't really worry about him. He's not running on fumes/guile (like Curt Schilling/Mike Mussina) yet.

Wang is probably overrated by a lot of dumb ESPN analysts or sportswriters who look at the ERA and win-loss... he might have been our "ace" but he still has a lot of room for improvements when it comes to getting strikeouts. He's shown flashes of having a nice slider to get people to miss, and if he can get that and his great changeup going consistently, I could see him being more like Kevin Brown.

[metsandfinsfan]

4-7 6.50 era 2005 yankee kevin brown? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[lastchance]

Posada's got almost no chance to repeat (or come close this year) because of the things mets said.

Abreu is getting old and just had his worst season.

I dunno. You know more about the Yankees than I do. We'll see when zips/pecota comes out next year. Those things are good.

[fmxda]

Mets,

Those are some good points, Posada will probably decline the most out of those guys, but I still expect him to be in the top 5 catchers offensively in the majors. Wang I addressed above.

The young pitchers def have a lot of variance but are probably "+EV" considering they're all blue chip prospects, have great talent and showed signs of having what it takes (Joba more than the others, obviously).

Melky has definitely not peaked yet. He just turned 23 that's just one year older than me, lol, and still a good 4-6 years away from the statistical golden years of most people's careers. I have no idea what most of the current stars in the majors were doing when they were 23 (except for like Pujols and Reyes, of course) but probably werent contributing like Melky is. I think it's safe to say he hasn't reached his ceiling yet.

[chim17]

He's no tROY Tulo.