Is this foldable for one bet?

KenProspero · #1 10-02-2007, 12:54 PM

Very loose 4-8 game at Canterbury.

I’m dealt QJ(diamonds) small blind – 5 or 6 limpers – I complete.

Flop is QJX (2 spades). I bet, 2 callers.

Turn is T (spades) I bet, same 2 callers.

River is A (spades) – I feel I’m sunk – so many ways to lose -- (Higher two pair, 4 spades on the board, 2 callers, plus there’s a 4 to the straight on the board.)

I check, Caller 1 (UTG) checks, Caller 2 (UTG+2)Bets

Question 1 – Do I call or Fold here.

Caller 2 has been sneaky in the past and I feel he’s fully capable of bluffing here, so I call the one bet. (probably a mistake)

Caller 1 raises, Caller 2 folds.

Question 2 --- Do I call or fold here?

I took a lot of time here. Caller 1 is a college kid, has only played a few hands so I have no read on him at all, though he looks comfortable at the table.

Yads · #2 10-02-2007, 01:04 PM

It would be a tough call the first time around, what do you think he called you down with he is now betting? Maybe a dry ace, but with another guy behind you it would be a tough call. I don't see how you can possibly call now that the second guy raised in a protected pot. You don't beat anything, but a ridiculous bluff.

Aces McGee · #3 10-02-2007, 01:05 PM

I think bet-fold is better than check-call here. Heads up, particularly against a sneaky player, I'm okay with check-call.

I'd fold the river the second time around.

-McGee

Scarmiglio · #4 10-02-2007, 01:41 PM

At worst Caller 2 is betting a King here. Keep in mind that you've been betting the whole way. Both callers have every reason to believe that you have the spade flush as you bet the turn, and yet Caller 2 bet into you? Unless he's been taking shots and being tricky in the past, fold to the donk bet. Also - When caller 1 raises you have an easy fold. What worse hand raises here? You have to think about how scary the board is going to look to both of them too - unless one of them is holding the King of spades.

BigAlChicago · #5 10-02-2007, 02:12 PM

Question 1-

I am thinking that this is a raise or fold situation. If you think the bettor is bluffing, you want the third player to fold his non-spade K or small flush. For this play to be +EV, we need to know the size of the pot and how frequently we think Caller 2 is bluffing. With a small pot and/or a low likelihood of a bluff, this would be clearly a fold. (We also should consider if Caller 1 would risk having his spade K checked around!) It looks like the pot is about 8 BB when you are put to this decision. Would caller 2 be bluffing at this more than 25% of the time? Perhaps. Although, I am thinking that this might be a smallish pot for this play.

Question 2-

Now it is about 11 BBs to you. Is Caller 1 bluff check-raising at least 10% of the time? Into a bettor and a caller, I wouldn't think so. As played, I fold this time around.

Aces McGee · #6 10-02-2007, 02:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
At worst Caller 2 is betting a King here. Keep in mind that you've been betting the whole way. Both callers have every reason to believe that you have the spade flush as you bet the turn, and yet Caller 2 bet into you? Unless he's been taking shots and being tricky in the past, fold to the donk bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Caller 2 bet only after OP checked.

-McGee

KenProspero · #7 10-02-2007, 02:43 PM

Thanks --

First of all, after the hand, I came to the conclusion that bet/fold would have been the stronger river strategy. However, sitting at the table, without much time to think about it, I don't think it was a huge mistake.

After Caller 1 raises. I think about it for a bit, and reach the conclusion that most of you did that for the check raise, he either has me beat or has balls of steel. I folded. I don't see how he could possibly expect both Caller 2 and me to fold on this one.

As it turns out ....... Balls of steel carries the day. I fold, Caller 1 lets out a sigh of relief and shows QT to the table. Caller 2 says that he folded a low spade (i.e., had the best hand) whether or not he's telling the truth, I know not.

We shake hands, I say 'nice bet'. Next hand.

Afterwards, I questioned myself -- is there any way I could have reasonably made the call here? From your responses, it looks like I couldn't have.

Lanzalot · #8 10-02-2007, 02:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Question 1-

I am thinking that this is a raise or fold situation. If you think the bettor is bluffing, you want the third player to fold his non-spade K or small flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly what I was thinking as to Q1.

As played, I think you can fold here in the absence of a really strong read. Seems like a situation where C1 might be bluffing with the best hand as he has a marginal single [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and is rooting for a fold.

Scarmiglio · #9 10-02-2007, 02:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
At worst Caller 2 is betting a King here. Keep in mind that you've been betting the whole way. Both callers have every reason to believe that you have the spade flush as you bet the turn, and yet Caller 2 bet into you? Unless he's been taking shots and being tricky in the past, fold to the donk bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Caller 2 bet only after OP checked.

-McGee

[/ QUOTE ]

Ooops. Missed that. As that's the case, b/f or c/c is better than c/f.

Lanzalot · #10 10-02-2007, 02:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Afterwards, I questioned myself -- is there any way I could have reasonably made the call here? From your responses, it looks like I couldn't have.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh. Probably not maybe possibly. Your river check probably did accurately convey the fact that you either didn't have a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or at best not a very high one and sometimes you get outplayed. I think I probably fold here too.