10/20 flopped set

[holla-at-yoboy]

is molswi ADZ? molswi left and adz came to the table a while later and said something that made me believe he was molswi.

[Lucky]

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i check because i think he is c/f or c/r the turn

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If you check, you dont want to see a 2, 7, 5 or spade on the river. You're ready to play for stacks so you need to bet here if money is to go in. I like about 750/call push.
Also, I may raise flop slightly bigger to 540. It gets more money in, and doesnt look stronger.

[paradroid12]

Is villain really flat calling your flop raise OOP with AKs/KQs/Axs? Not just flat-calling, insta-calling. Isn't this the sort of hand he would sometimes 3-bet, sometimes call, but never insta-call? So, I'm not too scared of the flush here.

Then what does villain have? The MP raise and flop call looks to me like 56 (him putting you on an overpair), or an overpair (him putting you on either a smaller pair, a 56, or a flush draw). If he puts you on a flush draw, it means he probably has a pair 77-TT because he'd call rather than 3-betting at even money. I'm leaning toward him having AA/KK here (or having floated the flop with air), since this is a dangerous flop for a button call and raise on the flop. The question then is, if he has 56 or an overpair to the flop, does he have a spade? When he checks, does he expect you to check behind? I think so, because if you've hit your flush, then you're not going to price him out, and if you've missed it, then you're going to be afraid of it. You're going to have to have something very strong to bet into the flushed board against a guy who has you out-chipped 2:1, and he knows it. So he can safely check his AA/KK with a spade and expect to see a river.

So, if you make a strong bet, he's going to fold, unless he has the flush. However, if you stack off on this turn, you're getting 1.7:1 on your hand, and you only need about 2:1. I think there's enough doubt about his hand that you can accept 1.7:1 with your set, especially when most of the time the result is that you take down 50 BB.

So, I push the river. If he calls with a pat hand, you have outs and a pretty good price. However, he may call you with lighter than a flush. The overbet definitely doesn't look like a flush, so he may give you some loose action with AA or KK if he puts you on a bluff. The only hand I really fear here is TT, though I can't imagine he's checking top set to you in this spot.

The only way I don't push is if your bankroll can't afford to get stacked here. If you can't lose the $1500, then check/call.

The reason I push instead of betting $800 is that you don't want to put half your stack into a good pot when there are a lot of river cards that would force you to fold. If you had more chips, then you could definitely think about extracting value from AA, but since AA with a spade has a lot of outs, you need to just take the pot down. Plus the push is good for meta-game, because it gives you the opportunity to overbet when you have the nuts and have a chance to get called.

[AAismyfriend]

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just bet like 800 call a push

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no. without good info on villain, bet/call push is a retarded play in this spot. i check turn call river/bet river if you tighten up.

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No, he's jamming any spade draw on flop IMO. bet/call push is good here. It gets a little more interesting when you have more than 100BBs though.

[FireStorm]

Leading the turn for 700-800 is good, he doesn't often have a flush, and giving a free card blows.

[NOSUP4U]

I think he pushes a flush draw on the flop. I bet intending to call a push that i think he'll make if he has something like AsAx.

Molswi is a 3/6 reg so I doubt he's ADZ.

Mark

[catcher193]

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i bet because i think he is c/f or c/r the turn

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[king_of_drafts]

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is molswi ADZ? molswi left and adz came to the table a while later and said something that made me believe he was molswi.

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not a chance

[wdead]

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i bet because i think he is c/f or c/r the turn

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yea i read some peopes reads on him and i like a b/c vs this type of player alot, he will c/r with the bare ace etc alot more than he will show up with a flush if he is like the player i have in mind

[holla-at-yoboy]

i bet 780 and called my last 760 when he shoved. He had Q8s. The reason I said adz might be molswi was I picked off an ADZ bluff later on in the session about 2 hours after this hand for a decent pot and ADZ said how at least he got me earlier with q8s. who knows.