Is my postflop play here wayyyy too weak?

[kenny7]

Live tournament,$100 buy-in. We are down to the final 8,top 7 pays,and play has tightened up considerably since we got close to the money.No-one seems to want to risk their stack with marginal hands,so every preflop raise has to be taken seriously,I have not seen anyone blatantly steal at the FT so far.

Blinds are 1500/3k,no ante.

MP ,young kid,prob the most active player left,pretty LAG earlier in tourney,but like everyone else he's tightened up now.

LP ,older woman,calling station,saw plenty of flops but seemed to c/f if she missed completely,but would pay you off bigtime if she got a part of it.

Stacksizes,
MP 40k
LP 50k
Hero(SB) 70k
BB 20k
Rest of the table are in the 30k range.

MP minraises to 6k, LP calls. I'm SB w A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
I was strongly considering raising here,but I'm very unsure where they are at. LP worries me the most,if she has a pair,she may or may not fold to a shove,I feel certain she will call a 3-4 bet. I felt superconfident I was the best player at the table,so I wasn't sure that I wanted to risk most of my stack coinflipping at this stage.Also,no reason MP couldn't have a strong hand here.....soooo I decide to just call.

Then of course BB shoves,and both MP and LP calls.I'm left with same question,should I push?? Right now I'm not too worried about OR,pretty sure he shoves a big hand here,LP different story.Would she isolate with hands like AK or a big pair? Probably not,then again,that doesn't mean she's got that,she could easily have any two facecards.

As it is live,it is all pretty read dependent,I felt everyone here had good hands and that my FE wasn't that great.That combined with the fact that I knew I could def steal blinds to keep my stack at a decent level made me call.In hindsight though I'm wondering if my play here is just too weak.

[udbrky]

With that many players and the way you describe the table, it sounds like you're up against at least one pair and at least one ace. I think your hand doesn't do well against those hands hot-cold. I think it's a -$EV play.

Edit:

If you're up against another A and 2 smaller pairs, you're 26% to win (if your A is bigger, 16% if he has AK):

Hand 0: 26.135% 24.98% 01.16% 271278 12545.00 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 21.282% 20.13% 01.16% 218578 12545.00 { AsJs }
Hand 2: 36.137% 36.09% 00.05% 391948 503.00 { 9h9s }
Hand 3: 16.447% 16.40% 00.05% 178108 503.00 { 7c7d }

If you're up against two Ax hands and a pair, you're 23% if your A is bigger, 17% if it's smaller:

Hand 0: 17.493% 16.99% 00.50% 184510 5462.83 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 32.054% 31.55% 00.50% 342641 5462.83 { AsKs }
Hand 2: 15.083% 14.58% 00.50% 158337 5462.83 { AdJc }
Hand 3: 35.371% 35.29% 00.08% 383274 857.50 { 7c7d }

[Acein8ter]

I'll fold here as there is already 3 players seeing the flop, you don't want someone to turn over AK... Maybe the BB has a real Monster???

Let them knock each other out and move up ITM... If they are playing really tight, start playing LAG...change gears constantly...

[KidSensation]

This is preflop play.

You can lay this down for the reasons stated above...your hand doesn't play well in a multiway pot. Fold...easy.

[BarryLyndon]

No, at this point, you should not push.

MP's range is probably strong, you are right: 88+; AJo+; KQs. LP's range is bigger. You're probably going to get them to fold 60-70% of the time (whereas most of my concern comes from FE against MP, not LP). I think that the other 30-40% you are always behind and a good percent of that time WB. So the play here doesn't seem +EV. That, and as you said, there are no antes and you feel you have a decided edge over the table.

Calling here doesn't get you much value post flop, I don't feel.

So, I like folding here. With antes, a different read, or a period where the LAG is actually playing LAGGY, you could assign a bigger range and push.

[donquay]

I would've shoved...as played I fold.

I've never played a live tourney so I am less familiar with tendecies...but is there any chance MP and LP fold to a shove because they're that scared to bubble? I know it would be ridiculous of them to fold now but live play can be bad right?

[erc007]

[ QUOTE ]
Live tournament,$100 buy-in. We are down to the final 8,top 7 pays,and play has tightened up considerably since we got close to the money.No-one seems to want to risk their stack with marginal hands,so every preflop raise has to be taken seriously,I have not seen anyone blatantly steal at the FT so far.

Blinds are 1500/3k,no ante.

MP ,young kid,prob the most active player left,pretty LAG earlier in tourney,but like everyone else he's tightened up now.

LP ,older woman,calling station,saw plenty of flops but seemed to c/f if she missed completely,but would pay you off bigtime if she got a part of it.

Stacksizes,
MP 40k
LP 50k
Hero(SB) 70k
BB 20k
Rest of the table are in the 30k range.

MP minraises to 6k, LP calls. I'm SB w A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
I was strongly considering raising here,but I'm very unsure where they are at. LP worries me the most,if she has a pair,she may or may not fold to a shove,I feel certain she will call a 3-4 bet. I felt superconfident I was the best player at the table,so I wasn't sure that I wanted to risk most of my stack coinflipping at this stage.Also,no reason MP couldn't have a strong hand here.....soooo I decide to just call.

Then of course BB shoves,and both MP and LP calls.I'm left with same question,should I push?? Right now I'm not too worried about OR,pretty sure he shoves a big hand here,LP different story.Would she isolate with hands like AK or a big pair? Probably not,then again,that doesn't mean she's got that,she could easily have any two facecards.

As it is live,it is all pretty read dependent,I felt everyone here had good hands and that my FE wasn't that great.That combined with the fact that I knew I could def steal blinds to keep my stack at a decent level made me call.In hindsight though I'm wondering if my play here is just too weak.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow...talk about the perfect time for a squeeze here. You should be raising (to 22-24K) AQ here for value, and maybe squeezing with a fair amt of other hands as well. Regarding not wanting to 'flip' for a big pot...u have to understand the odds here. If u make it 22K and MP folds and LP shoves, it's fine if she has a PP, b/c you're now racing with 47% equity and an 18% overlay from MP and BB's dead money. When u couple that situation with your FE (which is going to be pretty good IMO) then u should RR. Not to discriminate, but live "old(er)" ladies/men usually aren't going to flatcall a raise w a big hand in order to induce a squeeze from one of the blinds. Your only real concern should be MP, who's minraising, prob with the same read on LP lady? He could be trapping, but he could be trying to exploit the bubble for cheap.

I understand your reasoning for calling here, but it was pretty bad (not just b/c of the way preflop went after your call.) As played u can't really isolate BB now after both players have called. I think that at this point u should be very concered about MP, he should have now folded, or shoved his entire range to isolate BB, yet he's calling (for 1/2 his stack???), inviting more action. I fold here b/c your equity in both pots (main and side) is prob break-even at best even if MP dosen't have a monster...hard to assign ranges for each player here.

[SuperUberBob]

I was thinking squeeze play the whole way. This only works well if you're a nit though. Also, if you raised and get called, you must shove any flop. If you're raised all-in or face an all-in, you have to call.

You could call preflop, but that's really weak and puts you in a real bad spot: out of position against multiple players with a vulnerable hand. Unless you flop trips or top two pair, you're very likely beat (even then you still might be beat).

[benneh]

[ QUOTE ]
No, at this point, you should not push.

MP's range is probably strong, you are right: 88+; AJo+; KQs. LP's range is bigger. You're probably going to get them to fold 60-70% of the time (whereas most of my concern comes from FE against MP, not LP). I think that the other 30-40% you are always behind and a good percent of that time WB. So the play here doesn't seem +EV. That, and as you said, there are no antes and you feel you have a decided edge over the table.

Calling here doesn't get you much value post flop, I don't feel.

So, I like folding here. With antes, a different read, or a period where the LAG is actually playing LAGGY, you could assign a bigger range and push.

[/ QUOTE ]

we are only 45/55 dogs to this range, and with all the dead money in the pot, this has to be very +cEV and $EV. i have no idea how to do the calculations, but i know for damn sure, if they will fold "60-70% of the time", then we are damn good and should always be making this play, since 60% of the time we'll be making t16,500k, and the other 40% we'll be flipping for a HUUUGE stack.

edit:

after rereading the OP, i realize you're talking about after the BB pushes and mp/lp call. i thought we were still talking baout OPs initial PF decision

[ThePershore]

I'd definately re raise / squeeze pf, stacks and situation is pretty good for it, as played it's either push or fold I think fold is > push as it's likely to get 4 way and your hand value shrinks somewhat, though I doubt MP or LP has AK.