$100 6-max turned flush tough spot

[iStackBooks]

The whole table had been playing pretty tight and solid so far with nobody really getting out of line. I had the most aggressive image at the table, raising the most pots but showing down some very strong hands. Sorry if this is a no brainer, but I have been in this exact spot in a few tourny's recently and am honestly wondering if there is any way to find a fold on the turn.

His line (call flop, check raise turn) screams flush. I was very certain that he had a flush by the time he reraised and the check raise reaks of the ace or king high flush. A hand like 7c8c can't feel comfortable checking this turn in my opinion. Anyway, can any of you find a fold here... ever? Keep in mind that I have 5000 behind after the check raise and it is very early in the tourny.

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

CO (t3285)
Button (t1655)
SB (t4490)
BB (t6075)
UTG (t3685)
Hero (t6845)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q[[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]], T[[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]].
[color=Gray]1 fold</font>, [color=Red]Hero raises to t175</font>, [color=Gray]2 folds</font>, SB calls t150, BB calls t125.

Flop: (t525) 9[[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]], 3[[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]], 6[[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] [color=Blue](3 players)</font>
[color=Red]SB bets t400</font>, BB calls t400, Hero calls t400.

Turn: (t1725) 4[[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] [color=Blue](3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, [color=Red]Hero bets t1200</font>, SB folds, [color=Red]BB raises to t3600</font>, Hero calls t2400.

River: (t8925) A[[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] [color=Blue](2 players)</font>
[color=Red]BB bets t1900 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls t1900.

Final Pot: t12725

[nath]

Wait, you were thinking about folding this? Um, LOL?

[imabigdeal]

folding this is criminal and you should only do it if you absolutely, positively hate money. quit being results oriented.

[iStackBooks]

It reeked at the time, before I knew his hand. This has nothing to do with being results oriented clearly I didn't think I could fold - hence the call. Given his line I don't think it is THAT ridiculous to consider a fold. Do you put him on anything other than a flush? How often is this a dry A or K of clubs, retard bluff w/ something like pair and lower club, or complete air? Very very rare in my opinion. I think you can eliminate any overpair club combo from his range considering his line. I don't see how any set or low flush can risk a check raise in this spot. I think the fact that I have 5000 behind and it is early makes a fold at least possible considering the strenght of his line.

[nath]

Even if his range is exactly and only flushes (it's not) there are many more flushes lower than yours than there are higher than yours

[iStackBooks]

What else is in his range? Keep in mind this is a raised pot. Ax clubs and Kx clubs are significantly more likely than low disjointed club hands. I'm having a really hard time finding non-flush hands that make sense here. Even if we include sets big clubs and things like this I think they are played like this very very rarely. Do you think that a reasonable player goes for the check raise here with a low flush? He would have to be very very certain that I was going to bet. The better on the flop had checked to him at this point... he has no reason to expect me to bet. I understand that this is an instacall in most cases, and it looks like I have no support in considering a fold.

What do we do with lower flushes here? Are they foldable or is that also "criminal". If we can fold some flushes, and not others, what is the cutoff?

[Cornell Fiji]

Wanting to fold is so bad that its comical but I will let others mock you mercilessly for that aspect of the hand (its shockingly bad.)

Once you decided that your 3rd nuts is good enough to not fold to his turn check raise why didn't you just shove the turn? The hands in his range that you are ahead of are: 57/smaller flushes/sets/combo draws/tptk/AcX/2 pair and all of those would be willing to go broke on the turn but might find a fold on the river if a scare card falls.

Since you decided that you were not going to fold to his turn check-raise why would you call down rather than shove the turn?

[8Adam8]

sigh

[iStackBooks]

What is shockingly bad is the quality of discussion this forum. Partly my fault, I should've made it more clear in my original post - the point of an example like this should be to analyze the hand itself. For example, the following topics are worth discussing (keep in mind that I have previously stated the following: the table has been playing tight, solid poker... there may be some fish in the water, but they haven't shown themselves)

1. What is his range

This is easy. The kind of stuff that a retarded monkey would have no problem with. Coincidentally enough, it is also what you posters have provided. On the surface, that is without any further information, there are a number of hands that we can reasonably put in his range. Any set, some two pairs, overpairs, overpairs with flush draws, any flush draw, complete air.


2. How do specific betting patterns and normal player tendencies limit his range?

There are several aspects of this hand that should bring us to some reasonable conclusions about the probability of hands in his range. First is the nature of the betting preflop. The pot was raised and two players called out of position (sb and bb). This should tell us that hands like Ax and Kx of clubs are more likely that 72 of clubs and the various other low disjointed club hands that make non A hi or K hi flushes on this flop. Also, big pairs are very unlikely for our villain. How often will a player just call with a hand like this facing a raise and a call? It happens, yes, but we can see pretty clearly how it influences his range.

Next is the flat call on the flop. Again, some players will play overpairs and sets like this but we have to realize how unlikely it is. In a $2 tournament, maybe, but the majority of players in a high stakes mtt will understand the need to raise here (protect vs. draws, build the pot, get the money in before a scare card kills action, etc.) Also we can pretty much eliminate 44.

Our final piece of evidence is his check on the turn. In this case, he was going for the check-raise. What hands check raise here? Well, if the villain could be sure that a bet was coming then it would be a good play with a lot of hands. Any set, small flush, maybe even overpair with flush draw. However we have to realize that the villain had absolutely no reason to expect a bet out of me. The sb bets the flop, villain calls, I call. At this point, the sb is the aggressor and is representing the best hand. When the sb then checks the turn, the villain has to realize that the person most likely to bet can't bet again until the river. Now, if he has a set or lower flush he does not want to give away a free card. Either hand will usually think they are good on the turn, but would likely assume otherwise if a club hit the river. Furthermore, either of these hands needs and wants to build the pot. Why would any half decent player check in this spot without a very very strong hand (like the A or K hi flush draw)? It would be a significant risk that most players wwill not be willing to take. He check raises to 3600, telling us more about range probabilities. The size of his raise tells us that he is committed to the hand, but not terribly concerned with giving us a cheap price to see a club (straight card even) on the river. If a set raises here, it certainly wants to get al of the money in on the turn. It won't be too disappointed to take the pot down right here. A low flush will likely do the same. To me, this absolutely reaks of the Ace or King high flush.


3. What are factors should influence our decision

It is very very early in the tournament, and we have a lot of chips if we fold - if we lose we are in serious, serious trouble. The chips that we win are not as important as the chips that we stand to lose. Also, in all reality our best case scenario is that we are drawing against the A or K of clubs or the board pairing. I just don't see too many reasonable players raising here without the A or K of clubs or anything less than 2 pair. We are in good shape against a better flush draw, set, or two pair we are in good shape but are still vulnerable. If we are behind we are drawing dead. How many of you would fold KK (the 2nd nuts) this early preflop? How many would fold AA on a 2610 flop (the 4th nuts) this early? My guess is a lot of you.

4. What is the correct play?

I didn't think I could fold the Q hi flush here - so I didn't. Somehow, you have taken this post as an argument for a fold. That is not the case. First I wanted to know if you agreed with my assumptions about his range. If we trust our reads, I am simply wondering if we can ever fold an edge like this early on in a tournament. Keep in mind that many very well respected players will gladly fold KK preflop at this stage. And like I said before, many will fold a 4th nuts hand like AA on something like a 269 flop.

If you can't and/or don't want to treat hand analysis like this then what is the point? Everyone knows that the Q hi flush is dominating here mathematically but some of still rely on and trust our intuition and that has to be part of the discussion here.

[8Adam8]

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What is shockingly bad is the quality of discussion this forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

wrong

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my fault

[/ QUOTE ]

right

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Keep in mind that many very well respected players will gladly fold KK preflop at this stage.

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looool