Awkward KQ spot late in FT $6500

[earck]

But we are saying there is fold equity by c-betting, that is a way to win the pot if you don't have the best hand. The only reason to CRAI is if you are winning and trying to get more value or if you are trying to get them to fold, there is no fold equity so you must be pretty sure that you are ahead here and I don't necessarily think that is the case. I want to give the villain a chance to fold before we get all our money in the pot.

[JammyDodga]

what I was trying to say was that a lot of the time we will have fold equity with a CR, because he will bet 1200 or so, the more than pot sized bet is pretty unuseual IMO, and hindsight might be effecting the decision here somewhat.

[earck]

[ QUOTE ]
what I was trying to say was that a lot of the time we will have fold equity with a CR, because he will bet 1200 or so, the more than pot sized bet is pretty unuseual IMO, and hindsight might be effecting the decision here somewhat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess we will just have to agree to disagree, even in that situation I think you have very little FE. Unless you had a read that frequently makes small probe bets and will fold against any resistance.

[HatchetHarry]

New to the forum, but i spent so much time thinking about this post that i thought i'd be brave and share it with you. I'm using Harringtons math for the problem.

I've based the holdings and chances of holding roughly based on my own standards which i would consider mildly loose. I have also weighted them to reflect the probability that i would re-raise post flop. I struggled with KQ which would be split pot most of the time so i put it with a 50% win chance.

Poss Holdings - % Chance of holding - % win PF against Hero - Average Win Chance


AA-------5%-------85%-------4%
KK-------5%-------73%-------4%
QQ-------5%-------64%-------3%
JJ------15%-------99%------15%
TT------15%------100%------15%
22-99---20%-------48%------10%
AK-------5%-------75%-------4%
AQ------10%-------75%-------8%
AJ------15%-------58%-------9%
AT-----2.5%-------86%-------2%
KQ-----2.5%-------50%-------1%

Total Average win chances 73%

My conclusion was that Villian would be winner in the hand 73% of the time based on my weightings or 2.8-1. As such a C/Bet of 1200 into an 1800 pot would be a bad bet (i think!) so i'll check/fold or see what the turn brings for free. (or i would after the 2 hours i spent thinking about the hand!!)

I also negated the fact that Villian would fold a better hand against the chance that he would bluff. (again subjective)

I look forward to any feedback on wether this would be a valid way of looking at the situation.

Regards
HH

[Stumpy]

HH,

How can JJ/TT be more likely than QQ-AA? The flop is JTT, meaning there's exactly 2 Tens left in the entire deck.

Check out PokerStove to help you with equity calculations.

For simple cases, just enter the hand ranges you want, and the board, and it will do the rest.
If you want to discount a hand because you think it would usually re-raise, either look at each hand separately as you did above, or discount by removing a few combinations of the hand.
For example, instead of putting AA in, put in AcAs,AcAd,AcAh. (50% of AA combinations.)

Most importantly, think harder about the hand range you came up with.
Your holding chance %ages seem pretty far off.
Just come up with a hand range to start, then count up all the combinations of each hand and the total combinations.
That will give you starting %ages, and then modify them from there.

[HatchetHarry]

Thanks Stumpy - Great bit of kit that i was'nt aware of up to now.

Regards
HH