1st hand of Hendon Mob sattelite, tricky flop

[levAA]

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yeah I have a really tough time figuring out min raises vs. unkowns...

If we do just call on the flop, what is our plan for the turn

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as said

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proceed by odds and outs

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btw - could you please delete your second post regarding this hand - thank you

[iStackBooks]

I am having a hard time believing that this is never a good spot to raise. What percentage of the time is the villain:

1. C-betting with whiffed overs
2. Folding a hand that we beat (maybe a hand like 99)
3. Calling with a hand we beat (maybe a hand like A6 suited or 33)

Also, I think it is important to consider the fact that we have a person to act behind us. If we are winning on the flop (and I think this is the case a lot of the time) we certainly don't want to give two players a free turn. I still think I like a raise. I think the 3 scenarios above happen enough to justify it. Realistcally, our worst case scenario is that we get all in against an overpair or set and are 37% to win the hand.

[Tackleberry]

You have to calculate two different probabilities:

1) What are the odds that Villain has

a) overcards
b) a hand that beats us (like 99)
c) a hand we beat

and building upon this

2) What are the odds that Villain

a) c-bets with overcards
b) folds a hand that beats us
c) calls with a hand we beat.

I´ll make a rather short shot at some percentages (please don´t take it as an overly precise assumption - I´m doing this at work [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]):

1a) 20% (I would expect him to raise bigger here)
1b) 70%
1c) 10% (I would expect him to call here)

2a) 50% (remember that he bets oop into two opponents)
2b) 15% (your raise is too weak here, maybe it would change with a push)
2c) 75% (here your weak raise comes to its advantage)

You see, the odds for your flop-raise aren´t very favourable:

=> 25% he has oc and c-betted with.
=> 10% he has a better hand and folds to your raise.
=> 7.5% he is beaten and calls us.