soccer ...PLEASE HELP!

limon · #1 05-16-2007, 02:16 PM

i run a small book +/- 20 punters. i have the chance to triple that if i take soccer bets from a large mexican contingent i just had chance to meet. problem is i cant make heads nor tails of the mexican soccer league and their playoff system. i have a big group of bettors who want a number on "chivas to advance" i cant find it anywhere. i see at betcris that chivas is +170 dog to win their next game against america. i deduced that the advance part is some sort of addition of the goals scored in a 2 game home and home series (am i right?) but what would the "to advance" line be? my guess is somewhere around -110...PLEASE HELP!

jelly · #2 05-17-2007, 07:54 AM

I made a quick research on lines from two other series (chivas in previous round and previous chivas-america meeting). I do not know anything about the teams so I suppose +120 +220 +180 bookie consensus line is correct. This translates to like +320 +200 -145 for 2nd leg. After taking out juice and little guesstimating winners if both teams win one match each, I got -138 as a true line estimate for Chivas to advance.

Edit: see also my comment in the other thread

jelly · #3 05-17-2007, 01:47 PM

Clarifing the math as requested by PM

If Chivas wins game 1 and wins game 2, it wins series
If Chivas wins game 1 and draws game 2, it wins series
If Chivas wins game 1 and loses game 2, you need to estimate how often they advance, ie. win more than lose or win OT/SO

Rinse and repeat for all combinations and add it up.