Common No Limit Situation

[drunkencowboy]

I really like this question David - one of your better poker questions that ive read - as this is a very difficult scenario...

Anyways... I think a call here will give away your hand. The BB will know that with just a call that you have AK/AQ. Therefore you can expect a big raise almost regardless of what card hits on the turn. A raise to roughly 2000$ would tell you where you stand most likely , however, this is 1/6+ of your stack and your goal is not to figure out where you stand, it is to win the pot or avoid losing alot of money. If you raise and are called by more than just the BB, or reraised by the BB, then you are in serious trouble and just lost yourself that bet.

Anyways. Against a good player you are most likely beat, or even destroyed. You could be against a hand like 9 10 hearts (straight flush draw) but this is almost certainly not the case. With a straight flush draw the BB would assume you hit the ace and let you bet again. Then he might raise or call.

The main reason you play AQ strongly preflop is because it is suited. You have no backdoor flush draw anymore. Your hand has gone from pretty good to crap. Assuming that we dont know much about our opponents ability to bluff or semi bluff (this isnt Sammy Farha betting into you is it?) you can assume that your opponent has at least 2 pair. You cannot be certain however that a Queen on the turn will ensure your victory. The Queen of hearts is not going to make you feel stronger and so you can only hope for 2 cards in the deck.

So my decision - although it would annoy me - would be to throw the hand away. You lost 200 but I think any other play would make you lose alot more. Youve got about 11,800 left so wait for a better scenario.

Putting my thoughts about this hand into words would require about 50 pages worth of stuff. Isnt it amazing how fast our brains work - good poker players analyze 1000s of possibilities before they are required to act (online this is like 30 seconds tops). if you dont agree with me it may be because I left out a couple thoughts...

peace

[Dromar]

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[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]The strength of BB's bet suggests I am behind at the moment.

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What exactly do you think he's betting with?

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[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Against any hand I am currently behind, I'm drawing very thin.

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Yeah, that makes sense.

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[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Many players remain to act behind me, all of whom had enough hand to call my (tight) UTG PFR.

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It's not like they all have good hands. By the time it got to BB, he had to call 400 to see a flop for a 3600 pot. It doesn't take much hand to make that call.

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[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Whether I am ahead or behind at the moment, unless I go all-in immediately, there are many turn and river cards that will cause me to lose even if I am ahead at the moment, whether by forcing me to fold the best hand or by outdrawing me.

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That can be said about any non-nut hand. I don't think that's a good reason to fold here.

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[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]If I don't push immediately, I am laying implied odds if I continue: I have a hand that wants a cheap showdown and I have no way to get it. Thus if I am beat, I stand to lose a lot.

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First, you could get a cheap showdown. It's certainly possible. As for your other point, that's a definite concern. But we only lose a big pot if we put a lot more money in the pot, and we'll always have the option of folding if things get that ugly. Dont forget that we have position on this guy, which is a huge help in keeping the pot smaller.

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[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] The flip side of the same coin: If I play on, I stand to win only a little when I'm ahead, unless BB or one of the other players is a maniac - but if they are, I can pick a better spot later and likely break one or more of them with quite a bit less risk.

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Usually the "win only a little" argument is reserved for people that are out of position.
As for waiting for a better spot, this is a cash game, not a tourney.

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[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]I believe that if I go all-in, my push will be called (and lose) more than 13-to-2.

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If I read this right, you're saying that you've got less than or equal to 15% equity in this hand if he calls every time.

If you push, the others always fold, and he always calls and has either:
1)AA, 88, or 77 for a set,
2)A8 or A7 for aces up, or
3)AhXh,
you've got 24% equity.
Removing the AhXh hands, you've got 12.2% equity. Although this is assuming he calls all the time (which he won't), and that the other players will fold all the time (which they won't), we can see that we're pushing our money in with not much equity. We definitely have some fold equity if we push, but I don't think it's nearly enough to cover how badly beaten we are and how much money we lose when we get called. I think pushing is a disaster here.

I think you're underestimating BB's betting range here.

[drunkencowboy]

"If you push, the others always fold, and he always calls and has either:
1)AA, 88, or 77 for a set,
2)A8 or A7 for aces up, or
3)AhXh,
you've got 24% equity."

Your opponent almost certainly does not have AA. He would almost always reraise preflop with 3 other callers. Duhh..

[pete fabrizio]

I don't believe you guys who say you would fold.

[jogger08152]

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[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]The strength of BB's bet suggests I am behind at the moment.

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What exactly do you think he's betting with?

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Hard to say. As you pointed out, he's able to see the flop cheaply. But he's betting into 4 players who haven't acted, including a UTG PFR with an Ace on board. Let me turn this around: if you call or make a small raise, what do you think he's betting with?

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[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Against any hand I am currently behind, I'm drawing very thin.

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Yeah, that makes sense.

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[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Many players remain to act behind me, all of whom had enough hand to call my (tight) UTG PFR.

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It's not like they all have good hands. By the time it got to BB, he had to call 400 to see a flop for a 3600 pot. It doesn't take much hand to make that call.

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Agreed, preflop. When he bets postflop, his range trims down quite a bit.

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[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Whether I am ahead or behind at the moment, unless I go all-in immediately, there are many turn and river cards that will cause me to lose even if I am ahead at the moment, whether by forcing me to fold the best hand or by outdrawing me.

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That can be said about any non-nut hand. I don't think that's a good reason to fold here.

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I don't think so. If we were heads up or three-way with no player read, I'd play here always, especially on the draw-heavy board. Here though, with many hands in and few ways to improve, I think our playing disadvantage outweighs our (statistical, immediate) equity edge.

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[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]If I don't push immediately, I am laying implied odds if I continue: I have a hand that wants a cheap showdown and I have no way to get it. Thus if I am beat, I stand to lose a lot.

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First, you could get a cheap showdown. It's certainly possible. As for your other point, that's a definite concern. But we only lose a big pot if we put a lot more money in the pot, and we'll always have the option of folding if things get that ugly. Dont forget that we have position on this guy, which is a huge help in keeping the pot smaller.

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Most of my experience is limit, but I don't see how we can continue without putting a lot more money in the pot? It looks to me like: a call is terrible (everything worth chasing has odds to chase); a small raise invites a reraise not only when we're beat but also as a semi-bluff that will force us out; and a large raise commits our money (to, as noted, a pot that will be small when we win and large when we lose).

I want to touch on the second possibility (we make a small raise) briefly. Assume, optimistically I think, that we're ahead 67% of the time on the flop. If opponent (only) bets all 6 of the scariest turn cards (the J-9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and 6-4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) we're folding almost 13% on the turn, dropping our equity to 54%. If we check when checked to (the best option), our equity drops below 50% on the river (well below, in many cases). If we bet a "less" scary turn (23 cards other than the above are still scary, completing either an OESD or flush draw; only 18 complete neither draw), we're getting called (or raised) only if we're in a lot of trouble. I'd estimate our bet's equity is about -1/3 the amount we put in the pot.

The upshot of all this is, an $1800 flop raise almost has to be wrong since we're investing a pot sized bet into a pot we'll be losing more often than we're winning. Maybe we can raise to $1200 and be okay; I haven't calculated it but intuition suggests this still would be -EV.

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[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] The flip side of the same coin: If I play on, I stand to win only a little when I'm ahead, unless BB or one of the other players is a maniac - but if they are, I can pick a better spot later and likely break one or more of them with quite a bit less risk.

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Usually the "win only a little" argument is reserved for people that are out of position.

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Usually, but to me this situation looks like an exception to that generalization.
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As for waiting for a better spot, this is a cash game, not a tourney.

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Which makes it all the more reasonable to wait, doesn't it? In a tournament we will sometimes be forced to take a considerable gamble. Live, if we're against a maniac, why bother?

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[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]I believe that if I go all-in, my push will be called (and lose) more than 13-to-2.

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If I read this right, you're saying that you've got less than or equal to 15% equity in this hand if he calls every time.

If you push, the others always fold, and he always calls and has either:
1)AA, 88, or 77 for a set,
2)A8 or A7 for aces up, or
3)AhXh,
you've got 24% equity.
Removing the AhXh hands, you've got 12.2% equity. Although this is assuming he calls all the time (which he won't), and that the other players will fold all the time (which they won't), we can see that we're pushing our money in with not much equity. We definitely have some fold equity if we push, but I don't think it's nearly enough to cover how badly beaten we are and how much money we lose when we get called. I think pushing is a disaster here.

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I may not have done a good job expressing my idea. If we push and are called, we're in very bad shape. I agree with your assessment of his range and I assume your equity calculation is correct at 24% (I think we get called here with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].) The trouble is, when we don't get called we win 1800 bucks. I think we'll get called (and lose) often enough that the push isn't worth it. If we get called 25% of the time and have 25% (rounding for simplicity) equity when we do get called, in 16 trials:
12 times we win $1800
1 time we win 1800 + 11800 = 13600
3 times we lose 11800

For a net total of -200.00 per 16 trials or an average loss of $12.50 per hand. (For the record, this is why I think pushing treats us better than making a small raise, but they still both look -EV to me.)

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I think you're underestimating BB's betting range here.

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When you say underestimating, do you mean you think I'm giving him too much credit, or too little?

[jogger08152]

It's four other callers. The SB called as well. And while I think he'd usually raise, "almost always" (IE 98%+ or something) seems high to me: some players are trappy.

[PantsOnFire]

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First of all, BB can't really be semi-bluffing here. I have to put him on Axh, A7, A8, 78, 77 or 88.

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So when you hit your Ace with AQ, but someone bets before you, you always assume you're beat by everything he might hold except the Axh hand, and just fold? Kinda weak-tight, no?

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It sure would be weak/tight if it was just you and BB. However, this is a six-way pot. People don't just throw money into a multiway pot like this. Especially when they are not the pf raiser and an A is on board.

Aggression in poker has a very big (sometimes silent) adjective in front of it: "selective". BB is saying he is not afraid of your pf raise or the A on board OR the other 4 players in the pot.

When you raise UTG with AQs you are not hoping to be in a six way pot. So even hitting your A on the flop is not necessarily going to make you happy. I would only really be happy with trip A or Q or a flush draw.

With six guys in a pot, AQs almost becomes like suited connectors. And really you only paired one hole card here. Just because it is top pair, doesn't mean you go throwing money at this pot. Any one of those other players could have those hands I mentioned, hands that are going to be tough to catch up to.

[jogger08152]

I notice you haven't offered a specific alternative to folding, much less reasoning to back it up. Have you got anything?

[drunkencowboy]

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I really like this question David - one of your better poker questions that ive read - as this is a very difficult scenario...

Anyways... I think a call here will give away your hand. The BB will know that with just a call that you have AK/AQ. Therefore you can expect a big raise almost regardless of what card hits on the turn. A raise to roughly 2000$ would tell you where you stand most likely , however, this is 1/6+ of your stack and your goal is not to figure out where you stand, it is to win the pot or avoid losing alot of money. If you raise and are called by more than just the BB, or reraised by the BB, then you are in serious trouble and just lost yourself that bet.

Anyways. Against a good player you are most likely beat, or even destroyed. You could be against a hand like 9 10 hearts (straight flush draw) but this is almost certainly not the case. With a straight flush draw the BB would assume you hit the ace and let you bet again. Then he might raise or call.

The main reason you play AQ strongly preflop is because it is suited. You have no backdoor flush draw anymore. Your hand has gone from pretty good to crap. Assuming that we dont know much about our opponents ability to bluff or semi bluff (this isnt Sammy Farha betting into you is it?) you can assume that your opponent has at least 2 pair. You cannot be certain however that a Queen on the turn will ensure your victory. The Queen of hearts is not going to make you feel stronger and so you can only hope for 2 cards in the deck.

So my decision - although it would annoy me - would be to throw the hand away. You lost 200 but I think any other play would make you lose alot more. Youve got about 11,800 left so wait for a better scenario.

Putting my thoughts about this hand into words would require about 50 pages worth of stuff. Isnt it amazing how fast our brains work - good poker players analyze 1000s of possibilities before they are required to act (online this is like 30 seconds tops). if you dont agree with me it may be because I left out a couple thoughts...

peace

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another scenario i didnt mention. make a very convincing ALL IN raise and you might get the pot. bluff 3 aces. hed probably fold

[shag]

This is a simple raise or fold situation and I think its only a fold against the nittier BB's. Any call or raise behind me and I'm done with the hand. If BB calls I'm hoping to check behind on the turn and probably fold to a strong turn bet. It really depends so much on a read on the BB but calling here is terrible. It could be a blockish bet on the flop or a monster. Raise flop for pot control.