The action tells a story... can you hear it?

[Vorlin]

Ok, I've only found incomplete references to this sort of hand reading approach so I'm hoping to use this thread as a way to pool such info into one cohesive thread. The idea is not to read an opponent's hand per-se but rather to read what everyone's actions are saying to each other as the entire hand of poker plays out.

It'll make more sense in a minute, I promise.

The best way to explain it is simply to start with an easy one and then gradually string longer sequences together in order to tell a story... the story of the entire hand. Let's begin with a short fairy tale, the tale of the draw and the top pair...

- Button raises 3x the BB pre-flop, the only caller is the BB.
- Flop comes Kc Tc 6d
- BB bets 3x the BB
- Button comes back with a raise for 18x the BB

Now, translate the "story" that the actions tell into plain english...

- The button raised, possibly trying to steal or maybe s/he has decent cards.

- The BB said: "I have something here that's worth seeing the flop with, I call."

- The flop came and the BB bet 3x the BB into a pot that had 6x the BB... effectively getting 2:1 on the bet and 3:1 if called. Nice odds... so the BB was saying: "I'll take this pot now if you don't want it or I'll be happy to take 3:1 to see another card"... most likely indicating a flush draw.

- The Button said: "Forget that nonsense... I have you beat here and now. I'm going to ruin any odds you get on your draw because I don't want you to draw out on me. I'll make it 18 more to go and that only offers you 3:2 for this call when you need 1.8:1 to make it the correct thing to do, assuming you get both the turn and river for free... which I assure you, you won't. If all you have is a draw, then go ahead and call me. In fact, be sure to call me every time I ruin your odds.... please."

Needless to say, 4 clubs or no, the BB can't call without making a mistake. A very expensive mistake.

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This is what I call "Translating the action". No, it's not an accepted term... I don't know that there is any accepted term for this sort of approach, but I have to call it something. So, I made the term up. Hey, somebody's got to do it...

I'm hoping that others will add to this collection with the end goal being that we form a "storytelling" way of looking at the action in any hand. The real reason to do this is to better understand what is happening around us at the table and, even better, to understand how others look at our own actions. With time and practice, I hope that these patterns will become known to us like the words of songs... and when we see them at a table, we'll hopefully be able to recognize them for what they are or use them to get our opponents to believe what we want them to believe. It's simply another way to examine betting patterns. Hopefully one that can be used to gain just a little more information when we need all we can get because we're faced with a decision.

Also, like the words of songs, we'll intuitively know when someone "gets the words wrong". This would be apparent in the way that something is out of place, and it could flag in our minds that something is wrong.

With that in mind, I give you story #2... the bluffer who can't lie very well...

- Jim is the BB in a 4 way hand where he checked his option.
- The flop came 9c 6c Jd.
- Jim check / calls a small bet. No one folds.
- The turn comes 5h.
- Jim check / calls a small bet. No one folds.
- The river comes 3s.
- Jim is first to act and bets out 3x the pot.

This should be so obvious that it's laughable. Jim's on a busted draw, 33 or on drugs... and from his river bet the latter is more possible than you might think.

There is little chance that the river gave him anything more than a pair of 3's, and I'd even have trouble believing that. His bet reeks of a wild stab in the dark by someone who can't put together a good lie... or is dumb enough to call all the way to the river with an underpair, in which case you want to call him down to see if he's really that poor of a player because you can use him like an ATM for the rest of the night if he is.

Plus, if he actually did hit a set on the river, he wouldn't be dumb enough to ruin his own action... would he? If he is, then finding it out is more than worth the price of the call.

We all know this... but have you ever asked yourself how it is that you pick up on this?

Because somewhere in your mind you knew that Jim's actions kept saying: "I'll call to see one more card because I'm hoping for something". When the 3s came, leaving no possible straight or flush at all, he had to have missed... unless he had 33 in the pocket, which is extremely unlikely unless he's the easiest guy to beat in town because anyone with any poker sense would have mucked 33 when faced with a bet after the flop.

Odds are Jim's just a bad bluffer who is taking a shot at the pot because it was built up by 4 way action and he wants to try to steal it. Even if he does have 33, the info you gain from him by calling him down will more than pay for the cost of calling him before the night is over!

EDIT: Ok, this is very close to the way the action would "sound" if Jim flopped a set... **except** that he changed his tune on the river. If he really flopped a set, he would have bet out on the river, sure... but he would have bet out only enough to try to get every possible caller, maximizing the return he got for his risk. Yes, he *could* have flopped a set... but it's extremely unlikely when you consider that his river bet was 3X the pot.

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Ok, that's the basic idea... what other actions translate besides draws, top pair and bad bluffs?

What about the flopped straight? Is there a pattern to the way someone usually tries to milk that and, if so, how will it vary if the board pairs?

What about the check-raise on the flop followed by a bet for only 1/3 of the pot on the turn... what story does that tell you and where do you think it will go on the river? Got milk?

In the more advanced categories, what about someone who flops a top pair that isn't so great, like 9's or T's? What sort of pattern might their bets follow, what would the story "sound" like and how would their tune change if an over card hit the board?

The variations aren't endless, but they could be informative... if you know how to "listen".

Someone else care to take a stab at translating a hand, real or imagined? This could have some interesting possibilities.

Vorlin

[King Spew]

Stories are different at different levels.

All stories have a main character....you. Unless you are playing micro-micro, stories need to revolve around hero AND villain. If it is just villain, as is the case here on 2+2, you have an incomplete storyline and doesn't help reader unravel the mystery.

To forget about the short butler sitting behind (SB w/ 15BB) skews PF preface. Have you included the resumé of the upstairs maid with a limp?

On the flip side, too much information can cloud the analysis too. Villain is 18/6/5, cbets 67%, dbl barrels 50%, bluffs FDs and slowplays two pair. He also wins 54% of SDs and picks his nose on Sundays. Maybe he is slowplaying two pair here...,maybe a set. He came over the top twelve hand ago with TPTK, but I've never seen him do this with anything else. TIMES UP!, you're a HUDbot and the other 7 tables are calling.

I like to think 'storyline' style as I play, but to write it all down would bog down this internet thingy [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] The human brain is pretty amazing when it comes to processing data.

BTW, my short response would be something like:

Your story should also include a hero character that has been clearly defined.

[ottsville]

Psych. of Poker talks about this very concept a bit.

[bellatrix]

[ QUOTE ]

With that in mind, I give you story #2... the bluffer who can't lie very well...

- Jim is the BB in a 4 way hand where he checked his option.
- The flop came 9c 6c Jd.
- Jim check / calls a small bet. No one folds.
- The turn comes 5h.
- Jim check / calls a small bet. No one folds.
- The river comes 3s.
- Jim is first to act and bets out 3x the pot.

This should be so obvious that it's laughable. Jim's on a busted draw, 33 or on drugs... and from his river bet the latter is more possible than you might think.



[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know, there are some possibilities that don't seem logical, but when the hand gets shown they make sense. Let's say Jim had 4c7c or 4c2c in the BB. He didn't bet out, because his flush draw was pretty weak, yet it's enough to call a small bet twice. Well, the flush draw turned into a straight, board looks pretty uncoordinated, Jim just wants to take the pot down. Since the bet looks so fishy, he might even get a caller on this runner runner straight.

I'm not saying you should immediatly think this unlikely scenario, but jus bear in mind that poker is not crystal clear.

[AKQJ10]

Actually, against moderately sophisticated players with a tendency to outthink themselves, an overbet might be a very good way to play 7c4c or 4c2c. Also 33, but the pre-river action is pretty wrong for 33.

[Vorlin]

lol, nice catch.

Ok, I made a mistake when I thought up the above... there was supposed to be no possible straight or flush when the river hit. That's what I get for trying to come up with such a scenario on midnight, the night before my dad's funeral. I should have known better than to try to think something like this through clearly last night.

My main idea is to try to learn to read what someone is "saying" with each action... not in review, but in live action at the tables. Granted, being able to hear what they're "saying" and figuring out when to believe them and when not to are different things... but one step at a time.

I'll take another look through psychology... I didn't notice anything like this yet but there's a lot of info to read through.

Vorlin