OT.. Holy COW, Variance is a Monster!!

[BeerMoney]

Well, I've decided to focus my attention on STT's, I started at the $11 on party.

I quickly jumped up over 60 buyins!! This was awesome. I felt like I had a 14 inch penis, I could not be touched, I am the next Doyle Brunson. I was having a blast, playing usually only 2 tables at a time, enjoying a 60% ROI for my first 100 or so tourneys!! In my mind, I wasn't getting lucky, my hands were just holding up, and the fish were getting punished..

Well the last week and a half has been HORRIFIC. At one point I was down 40 buyins!! I have lost more hands than I could ever imagine where I was a 85%+ fav. on the flop.. Over pairs losing to 5 outers, multiple runner runner hands.. Whatever, you've all been through it, but WOW!! I keep telling myself it's gonna get better, but holy crap!! One problem is that i haven't been playing at the best times, and my internet connection konks out sometimes at key points in tourneys.. These things suck, and can be expensive.

I have donated some chips here and there where I won't let go of TPTK even though I "know" he's got the big over pair, or has me outkicked..

Anyway, I think my biggest leak is coming down at the wire. I have come in 4th place a whole bunch.. It seems like sometimes I'm not bullying when I'm the big stack, and when i'm sort of in the middle, perhaps I'm playing a bit too tight.

I've been reading this forum a bit now, and it seems like the general advice is to keep pushing in LOW M situations.. Perhaps I've just been getting unlucky there, but it seems like this has not been too profitable..

I've read HOH2, but do not have a copy handy now, as its at my parents house.. I do not have easy access to books like "Kill Phil" right now, as I am in a remote location.

But, any pointers y'all could give me on the end-game would be appreciated.

TYVM,

Beer$$

[Whisper]

But SNGPT, play around with it for an hour = free money.

[BeerMoney]

OK, was wondering about that..

Its just a little bit expensive for me right now in that i'm running bad, although I fear many of my sharper opponents are utilizing such tools.

[DaN_05]

Start with the free trial, plug in some of the bubble situations from one of the games you busted 4th, see if there are any situations you could have been pushing and didn't, I think you'll find a few. Also, keep reading hands from this board, and you'll soon pick it up.

[Paul B.]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, was wondering about that..

Its just a little bit expensive for me right now in that i'm running bad, although I fear many of my sharper opponents are utilizing such tools.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are no "sharp" opponents in the $11s. Trust me.

[KampnagelKid]

it is definitely more expensive to buy into another 1000 11er tourneys without the knowledge.

[Jay Riall]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, was wondering about that..

Its just a little bit expensive for me right now in that i'm running bad, although I fear many of my sharper opponents are utilizing such tools.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pfff. I've played 1000s of $11 SNGs and have can count on one hand the amount of players that are probably using SNGPT. They usually push far too tight and call far too loose (sounds absolutely stupid, but true). SNGPT can make sooo much difference to your game. Since I bought it over a month ago, I've gone from a slightly winning player to a +25% ROI player, its really that helpful. And yes variance sucks, but it rocks at the same time, just comin off a huge downswing, now I'm 50% ROI over the last 200 SNGS. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Indiana]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I've decided to focus my attention on STT's, I started at the $11 on party.

I quickly jumped up over 60 buyins!! This was awesome. I felt like I had a 14 inch penis, I could not be touched, I am the next Doyle Brunson. I was having a blast, playing usually only 2 tables at a time, enjoying a 60% ROI for my first 100 or so tourneys!! In my mind, I wasn't getting lucky, my hands were just holding up, and the fish were getting punished..

Well the last week and a half has been HORRIFIC. At one point I was down 40 buyins!! I have lost more hands than I could ever imagine where I was a 85%+ fav. on the flop.. Over pairs losing to 5 outers, multiple runner runner hands.. Whatever, you've all been through it, but WOW!! I keep telling myself it's gonna get better, but holy crap!! One problem is that i haven't been playing at the best times, and my internet connection konks out sometimes at key points in tourneys.. These things suck, and can be expensive.

I have donated some chips here and there where I won't let go of TPTK even though I "know" he's got the big over pair, or has me outkicked..

Anyway, I think my biggest leak is coming down at the wire. I have come in 4th place a whole bunch.. It seems like sometimes I'm not bullying when I'm the big stack, and when i'm sort of in the middle, perhaps I'm playing a bit too tight.

I've been reading this forum a bit now, and it seems like the general advice is to keep pushing in LOW M situations.. Perhaps I've just been getting unlucky there, but it seems like this has not been too profitable..

I've read HOH2, but do not have a copy handy now, as its at my parents house.. I do not have easy access to books like "Kill Phil" right now, as I am in a remote location.

But, any pointers y'all could give me on the end-game would be appreciated.

TYVM,

Beer$$

[/ QUOTE ]

Remember that you not only have to deal with the variance of the game, but also the variance in the performance of your play. Playing too many hours and/or pushing yourself too hard without adequate thought in between sessions is often responsible for what you are experiencing.

Indy

[ace93rd]

Agree with Indy, I think there are two cycles i feel most players go through when being in a slump\losing streak, it is these two cycles that cause a player to lose 3x the amount of games he should...the key is to try your hardest not too fall into either of them... The first, is just common tilt where we losen up our games and play to many hands, and pay people off, etc (playin K 10 suited from early position hoping to catch that miracle straight or flush on flop)....then after losing many games playin loose like this one often reflects but then makes the mistake of going back and playin too tight and becomes a weak/tight player. The key is to find the balance, and play the winning strategy that you played before going into losing streak.

[TravestyFund]

[ QUOTE ]
I have come in 4th place a whole bunch..

[/ QUOTE ]

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