Profitability of online games - A definitive answer.

[GrandmaStabone]

I am in the process of coming back into the online poker scene. I played as my sole income in 2004-2005 before I quit to do other things.

One thing that has really been on my mind as I scan the forums is all the talk about the profitability of the games being drastically smaller, if not nonexistent. Now, I was hearing this back in 2004, but it seems noticeably more prevalent now. The problem is, for every person talking about the games drying up, there’s another person saying that they aren’t and this is a myth. To complicate things further, and IMO the biggest problem with getting a satisfactory answer on the topic, is that I have noticed a HUGE influx of new posters who signed up this year cluttering up discussion on this topic with opinions that are very obviously given without any real experience.

So I wanted to offer up the following questions:

1.) Are the online games drying up?
2.) If so how much and in what ways?
3.) If so what games have been hit the hardest and at what levels?
4.) If so what can players do to keep finding profitable games/situations?

<font color="red">The idea is that I only want replies from experienced posters with large sample sizes from both the so-called “golden era” of online poker (2004 and earlier) and the games in 2006. </font>



I ask that any replies be preempted by something like “I played X hands at X limit in X year(s) and in 2006 and I have noticed the following changes”…..

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE do not take part in this thread if you do not have this kind of experience, and please do not act like you do. If you do not have a large number of hands and experience online over a period of 3+ years, the discussion here will benefit you so do not derail this thread with opinions that are without warrant. I would like to put this matter to rest (at least somewhat), and nothing will come of this if you jump in acting like you know more than you do.

Ideally, this thread will have very few replies, but they will be detailed and honest from experienced posters who know exactly what they are talking about. Hopefully we get some info on how the micro-limit, small stakes and mid-high games have evolved recently, if at all.

[geormiet]

[ QUOTE ]

4.) If so what can players do to keep finding profitable games/situations?


[/ QUOTE ]

I'll address this point.
More rakeback opportunities are available, which goes a very long way in making up for tougher games. In addition to general rakeback at big sites, there are numerous propping opportunities and WPEX for 100% rakeback. This stuff wasn't around in 2004.

I hope i meet your stringent qualifications to respond to this post. Why not just wade through the noise instead of writing all that out? You come off kinda holier than thou and i think better posters than me will be turned off and not respond.

[GrandmaStabone]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

4.) If so what can players do to keep finding profitable games/situations?


[/ QUOTE ]

I'll address this point.
More rakeback opportunities are available, which goes a very long way in making up for tougher games. In addition to general rakeback at big sites, there are numerous propping opportunities and WPEX for 100% rakeback. This stuff wasn't around in 2004.

I hope i meet your stringent qualifications to respond to this post. Why not just wade through the noise instead of writing all that out? You come off kinda holier than thou and i think better posters than me will be turned off and not respond.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope the post doesnt read like that. I just wanted to get some qualified opinions on this subject that a lot of people are stressing about. I know I personally dont have enough experience to say either way, and I dont pretend to.

What I have noticed is that a lot of the fuel to this fire is coming from people who dont really know what games were like in the past, but continuously tell others that they have dried up and are barely if at all proftable. This kind of thing scares new players and is counter-productive.

[stocktrader23]

Can't comment on limit at all. NL Ring I play short handed only. I leave the big stakes to live because I live by a casino.

Anyhow, at $25 NL 6 max all the way up to $200 NL 6 max the players are as bad as ever, and I'm still winning as much as 2004. Oh yeah, I play anywhere from 1000 to 5000 hands per day. Low buy in SNG's ($22 and under) the story is the same. They are 100% full of donks at Party Poker.

I don't even watch the larger stake games much but when I have there was always a moron or two tossing money away.

Hope this helps.

[LordBaldrick]

What is it about poker that attracts so many unattractive people? I might not have been playing this game in 2004, but I've now been playing long enough to notice that the average level of social ineptitude amongst the players is, ahem, pretty high!

[DavidC]

What I'd be interested in seeing is LHE full ring stats from the 0.5/1 to 5/10 levels, seeing the ASF% in those games in 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002 for similar months.

Now, this probably won't come from one person for a variety of reasons. The samples will be different for a variety of reasons also. I tend to delete DB's once they reach a certain age, so I can't really tell.

I'll say that I've found the 2/4 games to be much harder: tighter, more aggressive, and tougher post-flop. But that's pretty subjective, and I don't think I'm playing as well as I did a year ago.

--Dave.

[Webster]

I'm a full rinr 2/4 to 5/10 player since 1999.

I think the games are great, just certain sites are tighter, Party for instance is now just an average site, yet people still flock to the place, same with all the big houses.

But if people would look around there are real gems out there.

If you stay away from the bonus whores and Poker Tracker sites there are sites where the game is looser then 5 years ago.

I honestly was playing, last night, for over an hour with 65% flops in 2/4 on one table and 41% on another and switched to 5/10 with 45% flops. ALl 10 hand moving averages.

If you get away from the big Poker Tracker and BW sites and there is gold in them hills.

HOWEVER - June and July are the tighter months every year as the college students are doing other things.

[john kane]

whilst i agree some non PT sites are looser, the main problem is that you therefore dont get reads on your players anywhere near as well.

[stigmata]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm a full rinr 2/4 to 5/10 player since 1999.

[/ QUOTE ]

why lord, why?

[Webster]

[ QUOTE ]
therefore dont get reads on your players

[/ QUOTE ]

you get better reads actually. you put your brain to work instead of having the HUD do all the thinking. HUD's make you lazy.

Don't get me wrong - I use both whenever I have a chance just because I can, but I think I'm better at reading players without HUD. I had forgottin that the brain is pretty good at picking up and remembering things HUD's do not. I was using it as a crutch.

No longer spotting betting patterns.

All an HUD really does is tell you who the fish and the shark are and that is pretty easy to tell without them.

Of course I'm using HUD right now LOL

As for why lord why.

Why not - it's a comfort zone and a ton of money. I dont play for a living - I play for fun. Plus I was only part time the first 4 years before I became a little more serious.

The odd thing is I'm 2.3BB/100 on PT sites and over 3BB/100 on non-PT sites using Check Your Bets