WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread

Some Pig · #1 08-07-2006, 09:25 AM

Jamie Gold might be the current chip leader but Thorson may be the most consistent, if I'm not mistaken. He has always managed to finish each day relatively high on the leader board. He must be doing something right. Can he take the lead today? Friedman, Brenes, Cunningham and Lisandro are still alive.

Kevmath · #2 08-07-2006, 09:36 AM

For those that care to wager, here's the new bluesq.com odds, the odds listed are to win only, or you can go "each way" and get 1/4 the price:

Jamie Gold 7/1
Erik Friberg 9/1
Jeffrey Lisandro 11/1
William Thorsson 12/1
Ricki Nielsen 14/1
Michael Binger 14/1
Kevin Aaronson 16/1
Siddharth Jain 16/1
James Routos 16/1
Rhett Butler 16/1
Richard Lee 20/1
Paul Wasicka 20/1
Robert Betts 20/1
Allen Cunningham 25/1
Dan Schmiech 25/1
David Einhorn 25/1
Andrew Schreibman 28/1
John Magill 28/1
Kevin O'Donnell 28/1
Eric Lynch 33/1
Rob Roseman 33/1
Lee Kort 33/1
Mark Garner 33/1
Mitch Schock 33/1
Mikael Thuritz 33/1
Prahlad Friedman 33/1
WeiKai Chang 40/1
Eric Molina 40/1
Doug Kim 50/1
Marc Friedmann 50/1
Brian Hansen 50/1
Paul Raeburn 50/1
Cuong Do 66/1
Dustin Holmes 66/1
Rob Berryman 66/1
Fred Goldberg 66/1
Humberto Brenes 66/1
Kyle Bowker 66/1
Sirious Jamshidi 80/1
John Lee 80/1
Richard Wyrick 80/1
Luke Chung 100/1
Leif Force 125/1
Dan Nassif 150/1
Lowell Kim 150/1

Atropos · #3 08-07-2006, 10:09 AM

I'm not informed on sports betting, but arent the odds on Rizen very great and on Friedman quite ok too? Rizen is 33/1 which means he would need 2.9% to win for breaking even on the bet. Currently he has 2.2% of all the chips in play. However his equity is probably higher because:

a) There is a huuuge gap between the first two players and the rest of the field. They got so many chips, that a big part of them are "useless" because they cant double up with them right? This must mean that they are losing some $EV, which will go over to the short and average stacks.
b) Rizen has probably an edge skillwise on a big part of the field. His M is around 20, so he can still benefit from it, play is far from push/fold mode.

Michaelson · #4 08-07-2006, 10:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
a) There is a huuuge gap between the first two players and the rest of the field. They got so many chips, that a big part of them are "useless" because they cant double up with them right? This must mean that they are losing some $EV, which will go over to the short and average stacks.

[/ QUOTE ]

That has to be wrong. The chip leader can take at least as many chips from any player in the field as any other player in the field. It doesn't matter how that stacks as a proportion of his stack (i.e. he can't double up). He has more earning potential than any other player.

For what it's worth I don't bet sports, or play tournament poker.

mindwise · #5 08-07-2006, 10:38 AM

Rizen's next Podcast is up. It was recorded at the last break on Day 5.

Podcast(Day 5, Last Break, 2.1 million): http://www.pokerxfactor.com/news/

Looks like he ended the night at 1.94 million. He says he'll try to call in again. GL Sir!

ConsciousOne · #6 08-07-2006, 10:44 AM

If you place a bet on bluesq say you getting the 1 of the 25 right? like if i put my 5 bucks to there 125?

I just went to the site, you cant register if your in america?

ipp147 · #7 08-07-2006, 10:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you place a bet on bluesq say you getting the 1 of the 25 right? like if i put my 5 bucks to there 125?

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct

[ QUOTE ]
I just went to the site, you cant register if your in america?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not legal for you guys to bet online in most places so it's simpler if they UK online bookmakers do not allow you.

benza13 · #8 08-07-2006, 10:59 AM

Rizen and Allen Cunningham are both pretty damn good bets on this. And Doug Kim's getting pretty good odds if you wanna rep 2+2.

Prahlad looks good too.

Jourdain · #9 08-07-2006, 11:09 AM

Official Chip Count before we start:

1 Jamie Gold 7,330,000
2 Erik Friberg 5,905,000
3 William Thorsson 3,545,000
4 Rhett Butler 3,210,000
5 Kevin Aaronson 3,190,000
6 Ricki Nielsen 3,170,000
7 Siddharth Jain 3,090,000
8 Michael Binger 3,045,000
9 Jeffrey Lisandro 2,995,000
10 James Routos 2,775,000
11 Richard Lee 2,350,000
12 David Einhorn 2,340,000
13 Robert Betts 2,235,000
14 Andrew Schreibman 2,200,000
15 Dan Schmiech 2,155,000
16 Paul Wasicka 2,055,000
17 Lee Kort 2,005,000
18 John Magill 1,955,000
19 Eric Lynch 1,940,000
20 Rob Roseman 1,845,000
21 Mark Garner 1,810,000
22 Mitch Schock 1,785,000
23 Kevin O'Donnell 1,600,000
23 Prahlad Friedman 1,600,000
25 Mikael Thuritz 1,500,000
26 Paul Raeburn 1,385,000
27 Eric Molina 1,360,000
28 Doug Kim 1,335,000
29 Marc Friedmann 1,315,000
30 WeiKai Chang 1,295,000
31 Allen Cunningham 1,290,000
32 Brian Hansen 1,230,000
33 Rob Berryman 1,150,000
34 Cuong Do 1,115,000
35 Dustin Holmes 1,100,000
36 Fred Goldberg 1,080,000
37 Kyle Bowker 885,000
38 Sirious Jamshidi 845,000
39 John Lee 805,000
40 Richard Wyrick 800,000
41 Humberto Brenes 565,000
42 Luke Chung 560,000
43 Leif Force 510,000
44 Dan Nassif 495,000
45 Lowell Kim 350,000

Atropos · #10 08-07-2006, 11:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]

That has to be wrong. The chip leader can take at least as many chips from any player in the field as any other player in the field. It doesn't matter how that stacks as a proportion of his stack (i.e. he can't double up). He has more earning potential than any other player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe you are right mathematically, I'm not sure if I'm confusing % chance to win with $EV. At least in a $EV sense a runaway chiplead is rather benefitting the short stacks.

In a psychological sense, a runaway chiplead in my opinion isnt worth its full value. See this scenario:

Player A: 8 Million Chips
Rest of the Field: 5 Million Chips

Case A: Player A doubles up against another player --> His extra chips dont help him there, he can only gain 5 Million from each player... Maybe his extra chips can help him make a marginally correct call he wouldnt have been able to make if he was in danger of busting out. Maybe they can cause him not to play his A game anymore, because he feels the pressure that he has to win...

Case B: Player A loses allin against another player --> His extra chips benefit him there big. Every other player would be out, while he still has 3 Million chips left. However I think after such a big loss, few players can play their A games, especially in a tourney like the WSOP, so his 3 Million chips are not really worth 3 Million chips anymore.

Thats why I believe a runaway chiplead isnt worth it's exact percentages, an average stack seems to be much better in a sense of achieving optimum performance. I could be flat out wrong though.