Assani's NFL Wagering Thread

[Assani Fisher]

Getting back to football,

I think the Hilton has -105 juice today, so I'll probably be going there to make my final bets for this week. I'll update the thread once I have made them.

[Assani Fisher]

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Assani,

Typically, public records only use widely available lines. Anyone with half a brain can beat sports otherwise.

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Ok. As I've said countless times, last year was just me having fun and betting $1 per game. This year I'm obviously taking it more seriously. All lines that I post this year will come from the actual wagers I make at a Las Vegas casino.

[Performify]

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As for me listing my week 1 picks, let me explain to you my reasoning...The main reason I post here it to get better. I think that by posting all of my picks(including the unverifiable ones) it gives people more of a sample size to see my betting habits and perhaps my weaknesses and mistakes.

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Come on -- you honestly think you get any value -- let alone everything you wrote about above -- out of writing down "Week 1: 3-0" and following that with "no links or analysis avaiable"? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

there's no problem with posting a pick after you made it to discuss WHY you made it, even after the fact.

People have issue with the "Week 1: 3-0" line. Its unverified, it doesn't add anything to the discussion or your sample size (your sample size is way too small to be meaningful, and anyone interested in sample size is going to completely disregard something that is unverified and posted after the fact anyways).


-P

[Assani Fisher]

Performify, yes I think that the more examples of bets I provide, the more info it gives to people.

For example someone may look at all my picks at season's end and say something like "I think you overrate home field advantage" or "You aren't paying enough attention to a team's performance the week before."

Nevertheless, I will be using just this thread all year. And in the OP it CLEARLY states that those picks were not posted. I assume that everyone is intelligent enough to use their own discretion about whether or not they choose to believe me or not. And honestly why do people care? I find it laughable that I could go into one of the poker forums and claim that I've won thousands of dollars the past few days and nobody would ever think of doubting me. Yet I come here and claim that I won around $350 on 3 bets and people think that I must be lying to improve my image....just seems strange to me.

If you want to edit my OP to make it even more clear that I didn't post those picks, then please go ahead. I really honestly don't care if people believe me or not. But I am going to include them in my own records because I want my record to be accurate.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
Assani,

Typically, public records only use widely available lines. Anyone with half a brain can beat sports otherwise.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is up in the air. I think I could possibly get a corpse to be a long term winner.

[kdog]

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This is up in the air. I think I could possibly get a corpse to be a long term winner

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Can you fix my 28% win rate for baseball in September?

[B00T]

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For example someone may look at all my picks at season's end and say something like "I think you overrate home field advantage" or "You aren't paying enough attention to a team's performance the week before."

[/ QUOTE ]

You are terribly, laughably mistaken if you think someone is going to go through all of your bets and give you this kind of feedback. There is no PokerTracker type thing for sports betting that I know of, nor is it needed.

One season is also laughable as a sample size to be able to form that analysis.

Another reason for the hate is you claiming to know X person that is the end say in anything relevant. Pokerfink, or whoever you mentioned from another thread doesn't mean jack [censored] to us. Are they the mecca of sports betting?

I'm not flaming you, cause I don't know you, nor care to know you, but for you to be flabbergasted at the backlash you receive is yet again, laughable.

[DeezNuts]

I just wanted to jump in here to say that I really, really hate Assani Fisher threads and hope this gets locked. He adds absolutely no value to this forum.

That is all.

[Assani Fisher]

Alright, I'm just going to move on from all the nonsense and get back to the point of the thread. I placed my picks tonight at the Hilton. The juice was -110, not -105 like I thought it would be. Oh well.





Week 3 picks

Denver -3
Pit -9.5
Jets -3

[Assani Fisher]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
For example someone may look at all my picks at season's end and say something like "I think you overrate home field advantage" or "You aren't paying enough attention to a team's performance the week before."

[/ QUOTE ]

You are terribly, laughably mistaken if you think someone is going to go through all of your bets and give you this kind of feedback. There is no PokerTracker type thing for sports betting that I know of, nor is it needed.

One season is also laughable as a sample size to be able to form that analysis.

Another reason for the hate is you claiming to know X person that is the end say in anything relevant. Pokerfink, or whoever you mentioned from another thread doesn't mean jack [censored] to us. Are they the mecca of sports betting?

I'm not flaming you, cause I don't know you, nor care to know you, but for you to be flabbergasted at the backlash you receive is yet again, laughable.

[/ QUOTE ]

PokerFink has written a lot in the Sporting Events forum on the topic we were discussing at the time, so I suggested that someone could search for his posts if they wanted more info on the topic at hand. I never said that he knew more than anyone else....why on earth were you offended at that?

If someone isn't going to go through my picks and offer advice, then thats fine. I appriciate all the help I can get.

I'm sorry, but I'm still flabbergasted at the hate and I don't see what I did wrong at all in this thread.