KQ from SB vs. decent UTG raise

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

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so it's worthwhile to check/raise just to punish 66-99 and A8s + A9s..?

However gehrig's post about not making AQ showdown easy is something I need to think about ashe willl have AQ/AK here a lot.

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That's probably the key consideration here -- whether can get your opponent to fold AK/AQ/KQ if you keep pushing on all streets.

[Stinkybeaver]

ok heres my thoughts.

the check/raise line is costly against any overpair or set or maybe even against AJo. thing is he will call flop and raise turn, and say we haven't hit then getting two bets in on turn sucks a lot IMO.

So thats the downside. the upside is that we might take this pot away from AQo and AKo. aswell as 66-99

If I follow chris's advice wtih c/r and check turn then we don't fold AQ/AK.

If I c/c, c/c, c/f I don't get the chance to take it down UI at all. But I don't get to many bets in as a dog either.

What happens if we donk flop. will most villain again wait and raise the turn or will they raise the flop. Also AK / AQ might raise for freecard if I donk.

[mntbikr15]

Is anyone else cold calling this pf?

[Stinkybeaver]

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Definite CR on the flop your hand is too strong not to. If villian smooth calls flop I intend to fire both street UI

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Did the math this is the line.

ok so we get a few more bets in on flop and turn when behind. If we figure to be about 30% equity here wich is low then we loose 0.7 of an sb and 0.7 of a BB so like 1.1 BB over all.

there are 61 combos of hands that have us beat and won't fold.

There are 54 combos of hands we might fold. and thereby take down the pot. the pot is already close to 3 BB after UTG c-bet and we have the decision to checkraise. now I don't mind gambling for 1 BB if I'm going to take a 3 BB pot down 47% of the time.

Now this only factors when noone hits any cards on turn and river. if we hit a K or Q the hand gets more difficult to analyse as those outs are tainted a lot.

[synbad13]

Being 5 handed makes our hand seem stronger PF. My first response would be to raise this PF... this should give you an idea of where you stand - as he will (or should) only cap with hands much better than ours - and will cause us to play much more passively throughout the hand. I personally like to maintain agression when OOP.

I would raise the flop given the action. His C-bet doesn't mean much. Most TAG's will c-bet any and all flops after a PF raise. We certainly have 8 outs, and probablly closer to around 10-14 (although we're not sure which ones exactly).

We will expect him to call the flop raise (most hands will for 1 more bet). And would fire again on the turn.
The river is where I feel the true question comes - if he calls us down to the river... do we fire again with the chance the A-high folds?

[Stinkybeaver]

yes we do fire river as we are never letting him get a free showdown with a high.

If no aggression after flop c/r then fire river or the line is not worth it. AK / AQ will go to the river but will have a hard time calling there if you bet IMO.

[Euphoricism]

So, no one just donks out the flop?

Further, note that since villain is highly likely to hold an A in his hand if he raises UTG, we're drawing to tainted outs quite often as well -- if that matters.