Random result grapher spreadsheet

[Shrooma]

Been working further on the simulation part, will upload a version soon. I'll try to include best run, worst run, largest down/upswing, breakeven strike, and distribution.

Concerning the last, have a look at my total profit distribution (pretty sick imo). Actual ROI is 8% at the 22+2 sng's, equal 1-2-3 distribution.

The total profit after 5000 tournaments is shown, based on 5000 simulations.

[CheeseMoney]

Unfortunately, these programs make me wanna quit STTs altogether... though I guess 5000 isn't even that huge a sample.

[vers]

Thanks for the mod Shrooma. Can you explain what the simulated profit and simulated ROI is over say 500 simulations? Is this the average of all simulations or is it just the last simulation that was done? Also, how can you figure out what the ROI is of the worst/best run? Thanks a lot.

[Cpaz]

Forgive me, as I know I'm being a nit here, but what's accounting for the variance when recalcing each time? I somehow get that the sheet is calculating different scenarios even if you play it the same way but can anyone go into it a bit more? The simulated results must be changing the finish distributions, right?

Thanks.

[Shrooma]

Okay, I rewrote from scratch a very fast simulation sheet supporting up to 32000 simulations of 32000 tournaments. The results shown are distribution of profit, best, worst and average runs and simulated ROI information.

Excel 2007

Excel 97/2003

Note: This program is much faster. However, 10000 simulations of 10000 tournaments took over 1 minute and 1 GB of RAM.

[Shrooma]

[ QUOTE ]
Forgive me, as I know I'm being a nit here, but what's accounting for the variance when recalcing each time? I somehow get that the sheet is calculating different scenarios even if you play it the same way but can anyone go into it a bit more? The simulated results must be changing the finish distributions, right?

Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

A randomizer accounts for the variance (based on entered ROI and finish distribution). For each tournament in each simulation the randomizer is called.
Of course, the more simulations are performed the better the simulated ROI fits the actual ROI. The main purpose of this program is to provide graphical insight into the varianced based on your own parameters.

[DannyOcean_]

very good work.

[dave_w11]

Thanks for improving it Shrooma they are interesting to see. I wonder if you could use the results of each simulation to produce a graph of cumulative probability of ROI/profit (preferably ROI).

Something like this that I made using the ROI and Cu columns of the output given from RVGs ROI Sim, but I guess only with one line.

[DMMx69]

this program is way too many nice. thanks.

[spacegravy]

[ QUOTE ]
Please don't let Guthrie get a hold of this spreadsheet.

[/ QUOTE ]

lmao