Losing my nerve with a chip lead?

[cheburashka]

I’m chip leader in a 1.20/45 (it really sucks to have a depleted bankroll), and I’m playing my standard TAG game (22/15/1.8). I’ve been blessed with good cards; on the first hand I flopped a well-concealed straight at the same time villain flopped a set, and it’s been all good news since.

Villain is a bit loose and very passive (28/2/0.3), but I haven’t seen him do anything ridiculous.

Hero (15632 in chips)
MP (6250 in chips)
CO (13257 in chips)
BU (9873 in chips)
SB (11055 in chips)
BB (11433 in chips)

Blinds 400/800/50; Hero is UTG with 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Hero calls 800, three folds, BU calls 800, SB folds, BB checks.

Flop (3100) J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB checks, Hero bets 2400, BU folds, BB raises 2400 to 4800, Hero???

Checking the BB, villain could have pretty much anything here—lucky 9 or J, QT, or nothing.

I don’t want to jeopardize what has been my best tourney in quite some time with a pair and three overcards. But I don’t want to get in the business of protecting leads and passing up positive EV situations. So raise, call or fold?

Also, in 9-handed play I am always playing 77 for set value from EP (I’m going to need a lot more confidence in my game to do otherwise, so don’t even try to get me raising UTG). However, is this still OK six-handed, or should I really have raised here?

[Zinzan]

Could have bet a little less on the flop, maybe 2000.

But nothing wrong with folding here, IMO. Check-raise is a strong play against chip-leader. He probably has something. If he doesn't have a J or a 9, he still made a good bet.

-Z

[4CardStraight]

Theres not a huge need to bet almost pot on this flop, but you do have some straight drawage out there, so your size may be slightly too large, but its acceptable. If QT is the worst hand he makes this with I think a fold is ok, we are an underdog at 43/56 against a QT, so a fold here is perfectly acceptable in my book. I sure dont call. I dont mind the bluff at the pot, it wins a decent percentage, but in order to be a higher percentage play we can bet third pot or something here. If its me, I probably check this flop.

I think its played ok. Yes we can limp at these stack sizes if the table accepts limping. We almost have odds to set mine, and we can flop other things as well, like an overpair, or a straight or flush draw.

Personally I think you can raise 2.5xbb for value, and fold to a push with 77. Stealing the blinds here is perfect, and if we are called we wont be bluffing on boards that are all overs to our 7s.

[thesilkworm]

This is a bluff 5% of the time, max. As others have suggested, maybe you can bet less or check behind on the flop, but as played, this is a clear fold facing a check/min-raise.

Edit:

Preflop, I definitely like a raise, especially as you have the chip lead.

[GeniusOrCrazy]

Personally i agree that a pre flop raise in the range of 2-3bb is needed for a few reasons.

1. you may take down the blinds and antes here and if not u have a reasonable hand 6-handed anyway
2. represents a stronger hand than you have which adds weight to ur post flop play and may even have helped you avoid the post flop situation
3. helps clear out the random trash especially from the bb (if he does have jx then he prob would have folded a lot of those hands in the face of ur raise)
4. helps you to define ur opponents hand(s)

to me this is easily worth the extra 800-1600 cost of raising instead of calling.

as far as post flop goes i likely would have checked (especially with someone behind me yet to act) but if not i think a bet of say 1500-2000 would have been ample for what you are trying to achieve.

as it is i'd fold after his bet. (as a note its worth remembering even if ur ahead right now that any 9 on turn or river will counterfeit ur 7s giving him 3 more possible outs)

one question i have is why dont you feel confident enough to raise pre flop but you will put in a similar if not larger amount post flop with only an underpair to the board?

[Sherman]

I'd make it 2100 to go PF as a standard and adjust from there based on opponents. Maybe less or maybe more depending on whether you plan on calling a shove and from whom. That is the key consideration if you want to raise this PF. If the BB shoves will I call? What if MP shoves?

Anyhow, once I figured that out, I decide how much to raise. But I'd almost always raise in this spot.

[GeniusOrCrazy]

Think i'd fold to any sizeable raise over the top in this situation.

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
Think i'd fold to any sizeable raise over the top in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

This decision is entirely dependent on opponent's re-stealing/re-raising ranges. I think it would be tough for you to make the decision w/out being at the table with these opponents.

But as a standard, I would say yes. Call a shove from MP and fold to everyone else. We are raising from UTG and most villain's will have to give us credit for a strong hand, so they should be shoving fairly tight.

[veggies]

With the chip lead at a 6 handed table you need to be raising PF with any decent hand from any position and a few not so decent hands in good position.

As played I don't mind the bet on the flop, but maybe a bit smaller. Betting less will accomplish the same things either way.

I fold to his check raise though.

[SuperUberBob]

I like a preflop raise.

Fold to the flop raise though. This is almost always a raggedy jack hand.